ALEX · Executive Summary

103 Maria Court, Georgetown

Comparable-sales valuation · Listed Property Buyer Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Gary C. BlackburnPrepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated BrokerSummary revised October 5, 2026, 8:09 PM CDTReport version 14.249

01What the evidence says this house is worth

ALEX AI Statistical Model

Minimum

$390,942

Average

$417,312

Median

$412,190

Maximum

$450,753

ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 2,104 SF using the size effect measured from these same sales. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale.

Traditional Arithmetic Model

Minimum

$407,593

Average

$448,080

Median

$450,262

Maximum

$484,299

The same five sales with the same adjustments, each scaled to this home’s size at its own price per SF and counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two rows differ.

02How the two rows differ

What the two rows share. Both rows start from the same five sales and carry the same adjustments: the market trend from each sale’s date to today, the feature adjustments ALEX calculated, the changes and additions Diane made after comparing each sold home with this property, and scaling to this home’s size at each sale’s own price per SF.

Where they differ. The statistical model makes two further corrections. First, it applies a size adjustment measured from these sales, because price per SF falls as homes get larger. Second, it gives each sale a weight based on how closely it matches this home, where the traditional row counts every sale equally. The “Size adjustment” and “Final valuation” tables below show both corrections sale by sale, and the detailed report sets out the full method.

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is lower than the traditional arithmetic figure. The difference is shown below in dollars and as a percentage of the traditional average.

ALEX AI average

$417,312

Traditional average

$448,080

Difference

ALEX’s valuation is $30,768 lower · 6.9% lower

03The offer on the table, and the market around it

Offer, contract price

$419,900

Seller-paid closing costs

$8,000

Your effective price, net of the credit

$411,900

WCAD market value, 2026

$387,192

Financing

100% VA

Down payment

None

Days on market

11

Price reductions

None

Net adjusted value

$417,312

Contract $425,312 with the credit

Lowest offer we recommend

$384,500

Contract $392,500 with the credit

Highest offer we recommend

$411,900

Contract $419,900 with the credit; held at the asking price

All three are net: what the house costs after the $8,000 credit, the contract price less the credit. The lowest and highest are the bottom and top of the 68% error band, ±7.85%, around the net adjusted value. The highest is held at the asking price, the default; the evidence alone would reach $450,000 net.

Loan amount

$419,900

Interest rate

Freddie Mac 30-yr avg, wk of 10/01/26
7.28%

Points at close

2.00%

Cost of the points

$8,398

Loan term

30 years

VA funding fee

not entered
—

Monthly principal & interest

$2,873

Cash at closing

down + points − seller credit, before lender & title costs
$398

Property taxes, a month

1.488% of the offer, homestead
$521

Homeowners insurance, a month

estimate, not a quote
$192

Housing payment, a month

principal, interest, taxes, insurance; HOA dues not reported
$3,586
With VA financing, the VA appraisal, not the asking price, is the value that matters. The VA assigns the appraiser, and the appraised value is issued as a Notice of Value.

Your effective price, shown above, is inside the ALEX AI Statistical Model’s range of $390,942 to $450,753. It is below the model’s average of $417,312 and also the Traditional Arithmetic Model’s average of $448,080. Both rest on the five closed sales summarized below. The VA appraiser will form an independent opinion from the same kind of evidence. These sales are the case that can be put in front of the appraiser; they are not a prediction of what the appraiser will conclude. Diane will guide the strategy with you.

One condition remains: the Notice of Value. If the Notice of Value comes in below the contract price, the VA amendatory clause lets you choose: make up the difference in cash, or terminate the contract and have your earnest money returned. An appraiser adjusts each comparable sale for seller concessions, as this report does, so the valuation is on the same basis as the Notice of Value. This contract price is $2,588 above the valuation: an appraisal at or near the valuation would fall below it. The ceiling in section 04 is held at the asking price, the default; the evidence alone would put it higher. You decide which counter to use and when, or whether to counter at a different price.

Five other properties are for sale in Sierra Vista, asking $285,000 to $388,000. They are context, not evidence. An asking price is a seller’s opinion of value. None has sold, and no active listing is used in the valuation.

04If the seller counters on the $8,000 credit

Move the price, not the credit. Because you are financing 100% with no down payment, the seller-paid closing costs help you close the VA purchase. Giving them up raises the cash you must bring to closing. If you need to offer more, raise the contract price and keep the full credit in place.

Every counter in the table below keeps the full $8,000 credit, and we recommend that any counter you make does the same. Each row shows what the house effectively costs you (the contract price less the credit), the cash you bring to closing and the monthly payment on the loan terms above.

CounterContract priceYour effective price Cash at closingMonthly principal & interestWhat it means for you
Where it stands $419,900$411,900 $398$2,873 Your offer: the full asking price, with the credit.
Split the difference $419,900$411,900 $398$2,873 Your effective price halfway between the offer’s and the model average, rounded down to the nearest $100.
Ceiling $419,900$411,900 $398$2,873 Held at the asking price, the default; the counter at the valuation would be above list.

Each counter raises the contract price further above the valuation. If the Notice of Value comes in at the valuation, the difference is paid in cash or the contract can be terminated.

05Summary of comparable properties

All five are in Sierra Vista, this house’s own subdivision. In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

The house

Front of 103 Maria Ct103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712Front of 312 Susana Dr312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589Front of 100 Susana Dr100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148Front of 108 Susana Dr108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415Front of 104 Susana Dr104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521Front of 511 Debora Dr511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Distance from this house—0.28 mi NE0.57 mi NE0.52 mi NE0.54 mi NE0.06 mi S
Living area2,104 SF1,960 SF1,652 SF1,690 SF1,770 SF1,931 SF
Bedrooms443333
Bathrooms222222
Year built199219851994199519951993
Lot17,437 SF8,830 SF15,520 SF8,181 SF8,329 SF12,066 SF
Garage2-car2-car2-car2-car2-car2-car
LevelsOneOneOneOneOneOne

The sale

Front of 103 Maria Ct103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712Front of 312 Susana Dr312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589Front of 100 Susana Dr100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148Front of 108 Susana Dr108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415Front of 104 Susana Dr104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521Front of 511 Debora Dr511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Listing date09/24/2606/05/2603/02/2601/15/2610/16/2510/08/25
Close dateActive07/31/2605/22/2605/22/2612/03/2511/14/25
Days on market112841102106
Original list price$419,900$392,000$380,000$380,000$374,900$370,000
Last list price$419,900$378,280$374,900$359,900$374,900$370,000
Closed price—$375,000$375,500$352,500$380,000$375,000
Buyer closing costs paid by the seller—−$6,625−$6,000———
Repairs at the buyer’s request——−$6,729——−$13,000
Net sale price—$368,375$362,771$352,500$380,000$362,000

Time adjustment

Months from sale to today—2 months4 months4 months9 months10 months
Market trend to today—−$5,439+$2,350+$2,284+$5,724−$4,283
Time-adjusted net sale price—$362,936$365,121$354,784$385,724$357,717
Per SF—$185$221$210$218$185

AI & Diane Adjustments

Front of 103 Maria Ct103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712Front of 312 Susana Dr312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589Front of 100 Susana Dr100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148Front of 108 Susana Dr108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415Front of 104 Susana Dr104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521Front of 511 Debora Dr511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Year built—+$25,786−$7,255−$10,575−$11,400−$3,620
Lot size—+$40,724+$9,068+$43,795+$43,095+$25,412
KitchenDiane revised—−$3,000—−$15,000——
FlooringDiane revised——−$5,442−$5,288—−$5,430
AI adjustments confirmed—+$66,510−$3,629+$12,932+$31,695+$16,362
Manual adjustments to AI values—−$3,000————
Total AI & Diane adjustments—+$63,510−$3,629+$12,932+$31,695+$16,362

Adjustments added by Diane

Master Bath—−$7,000—−$15,000—−$5,000
Kitchen——−$4,000———
Back Yard——+$3,000———
2nd bath———−$10,000——
Garage———−$2,000——
Yard/Trees———+$10,000——
Lighting———+$2,000——
Both Baths————−$10,000—
Yard Grooming—————+$5,000
Total added by Diane—−$7,000−$1,000−$15,000−$10,000—

Size adjustment

Front of 103 Maria Ct103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712Front of 312 Susana Dr312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589Front of 100 Susana Dr100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148Front of 108 Susana Dr108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415Front of 104 Susana Dr104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521Front of 511 Debora Dr511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Scaling to 2,104 SF—+$30,816+$98,633+$86,405+$76,880+$33,514
Statistical size adjustment—−$13,758−$46,935−$42,522−$33,546−$16,651
Total size adjustment—+$17,058+$51,698+$43,883+$43,334+$16,863

Scaling to 2,104 SF. Every home that sold is smaller than this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 312 Susana Dr has 1,960 SF, and its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $419,446. Restated at this home’s size: $419,446 × 2,104 ÷ 1,960 = $450,262. The scaling line for 312 Susana Dr is the difference, +$30,816.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones, because every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever the home’s size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. ALEX measured, from these five sales, how price per SF changes with size, and applies that correction to each sale. For 312 Susana Dr the statistical size adjustment is −$13,758, so its total size adjustment is +$17,058. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.

Final valuation

Front of 103 Maria Ct103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712Front of 312 Susana Dr312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589Front of 100 Susana Dr100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148Front of 108 Susana Dr108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415Front of 104 Susana Dr104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521Front of 511 Debora Dr511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Weight in the statistical model—26.8%24.2%23.6%12.8%12.5%
Net sale price—$368,375$362,771$352,500$380,000$362,000
Time adjustment—−$5,439+$2,350+$2,284+$5,724−$4,283
AI & Diane adjustments—+$63,510−$3,629+$12,932+$31,695+$16,362
Added by Diane—−$7,000−$1,000−$15,000−$10,000—
Size adjustment—+$17,058+$51,698+$43,883+$43,334+$16,863
Final adjusted value—$436,504$412,190$396,599$450,753$390,942
Final adjusted sale price per SF—$207$196$188$214$186