ALEX · Executive Summary · Draft
103 Maria Court, Georgetown
Comparable-sales valuation · Listed Property Buyer Model · Williamson County
01What the evidence says this house is worth
ALEX AI Statistical Model
Minimum
Average
Median
Maximum
ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale is adjusted to this property’s 2,104 SF on the size relationship. Then each sale is weighted by how closely it resembles this house in the matching metric.
Traditional Arithmetic Model
Minimum
Average
Median
Maximum
The same five sales counted equally, without adjusting them to this house’s size. How the two rows differ is explained below.
02How the two rows differ
Why is this important? ALEX’s model is based on MIT PhD-level statistics and NVIDIA models. It adjusts each sale for the size of the home and for when the sale took place, adjusts for the differences between each sale and this house that the model identifies, and includes the manual adjustments Diane made after comparing each sold home with this property. See the detailed report.
Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is $30,768 lower than the traditional arithmetic figure — 6.9% lower. The percentage is measured against the traditional average, the figure most readers would reach for first.
ALEX AI average
Traditional average
ALEX is lower by
03The offer on the table, and the market around it
Offer, contract price
Seller-paid costs
Offer, net to seller
County appraised value, 2026
Financing
Down payment
Days on market
Price reductions
Five closed sales in Sierra Vista set the net evidence, and this offer nets the sale price to $411,900. This is inside the range of $390,942 to $450,753, and below the average of the ALEX AI Statistical Model ($417,312) and the average of the Traditional Arithmetic Model ($448,080). The VA’s appraiser will form an independent opinion from the same kind of evidence. This is the case that can be put in front of them. It is not a prediction of what they will write. Diane will guide the strategy with you.
One gate remains: the Notice of Value. If the VA appraiser comes in below the contract price, you can make up the difference if you want, or you can terminate the contract and get your escrow money returned. The counter ceiling in section 04 is about what to concede willingly, not about what the loan will permit. You control which counter is used and when, or if you want to counter at a different price.
04If the seller counters on the $8,000
Move the price, not the credit. Because you are financing 100% with no down payment, that $8,000 of seller-paid closing costs helps make the VA purchase closable. Trading it away creates a higher cash requirement for you at the closing table. If necessary, raise the contract price and keep the $8,000 credit intact.
Every suggested counter keeps the full $8,000 credit for you at closing. No matter how you counter, consider always including the full $8,000 credit.
| Counter | Contract price | Seller credit | Net to seller | What it concedes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where it stands | $419,900 | $8,000 | $411,900 | Full asking price; the credit is the only ask. |
| Split the difference | $422,600 | $8,000 | $414,600 | Half the room between here and the model average. |
| Ceiling | $425,300 | $8,000 | $417,300 | Net lands just under the model average. Past this you would be paying more than the evidence supports. |
05Summary of comparable properties
All five are in Sierra Vista, this house’s own subdivision. The first column is the subject property and the columns after it are the comparable sales.
The house
 103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712 |  312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589 |  100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148 |  108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415 |  104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521 |  511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance from this house | — | 0.31 mi NE | 0.60 mi NE | 0.55 mi NE | 0.58 mi NE | 0.05 mi SE |
| Living area | 2,104 SF | 1,960 SF | 1,652 SF | 1,690 SF | 1,770 SF | 1,931 SF |
| Bedrooms | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Bathrooms | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Year built | 1992 | 1985 | 1994 | 1995 | 1995 | 1993 |
| Lot | 17,437 SF | 8,830 SF | 15,520 SF | 8,181 SF | 8,329 SF | 12,066 SF |
| Garage | 2-car | 2-car | 2-car | 2-car | 2-car | 2-car |
| Levels | One | One | One | One | One | One |
The sale
| 103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712 | 312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589 | 100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148 | 108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415 | 104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521 | 511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listing date | 09/24/26 | 06/05/26 | 03/02/26 | 01/15/26 | 10/16/25 | 10/08/25 |
| Close date | Active | 07/31/26 | 05/22/26 | 05/22/26 | 12/03/25 | 11/14/25 |
| Days on market | 5 | 28 | 41 | 102 | 10 | 6 |
| Original list price | $419,900 | $392,000 | $380,000 | $380,000 | $374,900 | $370,000 |
| Last list price | $419,900 | $378,280 | $374,900 | $359,900 | $374,900 | $370,000 |
| Closed price | — | $375,000 | $375,500 | $352,500 | $380,000 | $375,000 |
| Buyer closing costs paid by the seller | — | −$6,625 | −$6,000 | — | — | — |
| Repairs at the buyer’s request | — | — | −$6,729 | — | — | −$13,000 |
| Net sale price | — | $368,375 | $362,771 | $352,500 | $380,000 | $362,000 |
Time adjustment
| Months from sale to today | — | 2 months | 4 months | 4 months | 9 months | 10 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market trend to today | — | −$5,439 | +$2,350 | +$2,284 | +$5,724 | −$4,283 |
| Time-adjusted net sale price | — | $362,936 | $365,121 | $354,784 | $385,724 | $357,717 |
| Per SF | — | $185 | $221 | $210 | $218 | $185 |
AI & Diane Adjustments
| 103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712 | 312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589 | 100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148 | 108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415 | 104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521 | 511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year built | — | +$25,786 | −$7,255 | −$10,575 | −$11,400 | −$3,620 |
| Lot size | — | +$40,724 | +$9,068 | +$43,795 | +$43,095 | +$25,412 |
| KitchenDiane revised | — | −$3,000 | — | −$15,000 | — | — |
| FlooringDiane revised | — | — | −$5,442 | −$5,288 | — | −$5,430 |
| AI adjustments confirmed | — | +$66,510 | −$3,629 | +$12,932 | +$31,695 | +$16,362 |
| Manual adjustments to AI values | — | −$3,000 | — | — | — | — |
| Total AI & Diane adjustments | — | +$63,510 | −$3,629 | +$12,932 | +$31,695 | +$16,362 |
Adjustments added by Diane
| Master Bath | — | −$7,000 | — | −$15,000 | — | −$5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchen | — | — | −$4,000 | — | — | — |
| Back Yard | — | — | +$3,000 | — | — | — |
| 2nd bath | — | — | — | −$10,000 | — | — |
| Garage | — | — | — | −$2,000 | — | — |
| Yard/Trees | — | — | — | +$10,000 | — | — |
| Lighting | — | — | — | +$2,000 | — | — |
| Both Baths | — | — | — | — | −$10,000 | — |
| Yard Grooming | — | — | — | — | — | +$5,000 |
| Total added by Diane | — | −$7,000 | −$1,000 | −$15,000 | −$10,000 | — |
Size adjustment
| 103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712 | 312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589 | 100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148 | 108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415 | 104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521 | 511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scaling to 2,104 SF | — | +$30,816 | +$98,633 | +$86,405 | +$76,880 | +$33,514 |
| Statistical size adjustment | — | −$13,758 | −$46,935 | −$42,522 | −$33,546 | −$16,651 |
| Total size adjustment | — | +$17,058 | +$51,698 | +$43,883 | +$43,334 | +$16,863 |
Scaling to 2,104 SF. Every home that sold is smaller than this one. To compare them fairly, we first change each sale’s price to what it would be at this home’s size. We do that by using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 312 Susana Dr has 1,960 SF and its price after the time and feature adjustments is $419,446. The math is $419,446 × 2,104 ÷ 1,960 = $450,262. So the scaling line for 312 Susana Dr is +$30,816.
Statistical size adjustment. Scaling alone gives too high a number. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than bigger homes, because every home has things like a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same no matter how big the home is. So when a smaller home’s price per SF is stretched to a bigger home, the value comes out too high. ALEX measured, from these five sales, how much the price per SF drops as homes get bigger, and takes that amount back off. For 312 Susana Dr the statistical size adjustment is −$13,758, so its total size adjustment is +$17,058. The smaller a sale is compared with this home, the bigger this correction. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the lines above it added together.
Final valuation
| 103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712 | 312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589 | 100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148 | 108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415 | 104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521 | 511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weight in the statistical model | — | 26.8% | 24.2% | 23.6% | 12.8% | 12.5% |
| Net sale price | — | $368,375 | $362,771 | $352,500 | $380,000 | $362,000 |
| Time adjustment | — | −$5,439 | +$2,350 | +$2,284 | +$5,724 | −$4,283 |
| AI & Diane adjustments | — | +$63,510 | −$3,629 | +$12,932 | +$31,695 | +$16,362 |
| Added by Diane | — | −$7,000 | −$1,000 | −$15,000 | −$10,000 | — |
| Size adjustment | — | +$17,058 | +$51,698 | +$43,883 | +$43,334 | +$16,863 |
| Final adjusted value | — | $436,504 | $412,190 | $396,599 | $450,753 | $390,942 |
| Final adjusted sale price per SF | — | $207 | $196 | $188 | $214 | $186 |