ALEX · Executive Summary · Draft

103 Maria Court, Georgetown

Comparable-sales valuation · Listed Property Buyer Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Gary C. Blackburn · Prepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Realtor · September 29, 2026 · Version 14.223

01What the evidence says this house is worth

ALEX’s statistical model, over five comparable sales. Each sale is carried to this property’s 2,104 square feet on the fitted size relationship, then weighted by how near it is to this house in the matching metric.

ALEX AI Statistical Model

Minimum

$390,941

Average

$420,189

Median

$412,191

Maximum

$450,753

Traditional Arithmetic Model

Minimum

$407,592

Average

$450,227

Median

$459,126

Maximum

$484,299

The same five sales counted equally, without carrying them to this house’s size. Why the two rows differ is below.

02How the two rows differ

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is $30,038 lower than the traditional arithmetic figure — 6.7% lower. The percentage is measured against the traditional average, the figure most readers would reach for first.

ALEX AI average

$420,189

Traditional average

$450,227

ALEX is lower by

$30,038 · 6.7%

Both averages are built from the same five sales with the same adjustments, Diane’s included, and both are net sale prices. The only thing that separates them is how each sale’s smaller size is carried to this house’s 2,104 square feet, which section 03 explains. The lower figure is the one the sales support once size is priced the way this market prices it.

03Why the two rows differ

Every one of the five comparables is smaller than this house. They run 1,652 to 1,960 square feet against this property’s 2,104. A smaller house sells for fewer dollars but more dollars per foot, so averaging their per-foot rates and applying that rate here lifts the answer by the difference shown in section 02. The statistical model fits the size relationship from the sales themselves and carries each one to 2,104 feet before it counts — which is the whole of the difference between the two rows. The arithmetic figures are shown so that difference can be seen rather than taken on trust.

04The five sales behind the number

All five are in Sierra Vista, the subject’s own subdivision. Each column is one house, this one first. Every adjustment is shown at its final figure. A row marked Diane revised is one where she changed the AI’s figure for at least one sale, and her figures are in bold; the lines she added are listed separately. Size is not a dollar line: each sale’s adjusted price is divided by its own living area and applied to 2,104 square feet. The row with Diane’s adjustments is the Traditional Arithmetic row above, and the carried row, weighted, is the ALEX AI Statistical row.

	103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712	312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589	100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148	108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415	104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521	511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
The house
Distance from this house	—	0.31 mi NE	0.60 mi NE	0.55 mi NE	0.58 mi NE	0.05 mi SE
Living area	2,104 sf	1,960 sf	1,652 sf	1,690 sf	1,770 sf	1,931 sf
Bedrooms	4	4	3	3	3	3
Bathrooms	2	2	2	2	2	2
Year built	1992	1985	1994	1995	1995	1993
Lot	17,437 sf	8,830 sf	15,520 sf	8,181 sf	8,329 sf	12,066 sf
Garage	2-car	2-car	2-car	2-car	2-car	2-car
Levels	One	One	One	One	One	One
The sale
Listing date	Sep 24, 2026	Jun 5, 2026	Mar 2, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	Oct 16, 2025	Oct 8, 2025
Closed	Active	Jul 31, 2026	May 22, 2026	May 22, 2026	Dec 3, 2025	Nov 14, 2025
Days on market	5	28	41	102	10	6
Original list price	$419,900	$392,000	$380,000	$380,000	$374,900	$370,000
Last list price	$419,900	$378,280	$374,900	$359,900	$374,900	$370,000
Closed price	—	$375,000	$375,500	$352,500	$380,000	$375,000
Buyer closing costs paid by the seller	—	−$6,625	−$6,000	—	—	—
Repairs at the buyer’s request	—	—	−$6,729	—	—	−$13,000
Net sale price	—	$368,375	$362,771	$352,500	$380,000	$362,000
Time adjustment — Williamson County repeat-sales index
Months from sale to today	—	2 months	4 months	4 months	9 months	10 months
Market trend to today	—	−$5,439	+$2,350	+$2,284	+$5,724	−$4,283
Time-adjusted net sale price	—	$362,936	$365,121	$354,784	$385,724	$357,717
Per square foot	—	$185	$221	$210	$218	$185
AI & Diane Adjustments
Year built	—	+$25,786	−$7,255	−$10,575	−$11,400	−$3,620
Lot size	—	+$40,724	+$9,068	+$43,795	+$43,095	+$25,412
KitchenDiane revised	—	+$7,000	—	−$15,000	—	—
FlooringDiane revised	—	—	−$5,442	−$5,288	—	−$5,430
Adjustments added by Diane
Master Bath	—	−$7,000	—	−$15,000	—	−$5,000
Kitchen	—	—	−$4,000	—	—	—
Back Yard	—	—	+$3,000	—	—	—
2nd bath	—	—	—	−$10,000	—	—
Garage	—	—	—	−$2,000	—	—
Yard/Trees	—	—	—	+$10,000	—	—
Lighting	—	—	—	+$2,000	—	—
Both Baths	—	—	—	—	−$10,000	—
Yard Grooming	—	—	—	—	—	+$5,000
From net sale price to this house
AI adjustments, including time	—	+$38,969	−$4,906	+$15,217	+$20,319	+$4,838
Diane’s changes to AI lines	—	+$29,103	+$3,628	—	+$17,100	+$7,240
Diane’s added lines	—	−$7,000	−$1,000	−$15,000	−$10,000	—
Total adjustments	—	+$61,072	−$2,278	+$217	+$27,419	+$12,078
Adjusted net sale price	—	$429,447	$360,493	$352,717	$407,419	$374,078
Adjusted value per square foot	—	$219	$218	$209	$230	$194
Indicated value at 2,104 sf — with Diane’s adjustments	—	$460,998	$459,126	$439,122	$484,299	$407,592
Carried to 2,104 sf on the size slope — statistical model	—	$447,240	$412,191	$396,600	$450,753	$390,941
Weight in the statistical model	—	26.8%	24.2%	23.6%	12.8%	12.5%

05The offer on the table, and the market around it

Offer, contract price

$419,900

Seller-paid costs

$8,000

Offer, net to seller

$411,900

County roll, 2026

$387,192

Financing

100% VA

Down payment

None

Days on market

Price reductions

None

The financing makes the VA appraisal, not the asking price, the number that governs. A VA-guaranteed purchase is appraised by an appraiser the VA assigns, who issues a Notice of Value. Where that notice comes in below the contract price, the VA amendatory clause lets the buyer renegotiate or withdraw and recover the earnest money rather than make up the difference in cash — which, on 100% financing with no down payment, there is no cash set aside to do. The seller’s $8,000 also absorbs the closing costs a VA buyer is not permitted to pay.

What this report can say about that appraisal is what the sales support. Five closed sales in Sierra Vista set the net evidence, and this offer nets the sale price to $411,900. This is inside the range of $390,941 to $450,753, and below the average of the ALEX AI Statistical Model ($420,189) and the average of the Traditional Arithmetic Model ($450,227). The VA’s appraiser will form an independent opinion from the same kind of evidence; this is the case that can be put in front of them, not a prediction of what they will write. Diane owns the strategy from here.

Six other properties are for sale in Sierra Vista’s wider market, asking $390,000 to $675,000. They are context, not evidence: an asking price is a seller’s opinion of value, and none of them have sold. No active listing enters the valuation.

06If the seller counters on the $8,000

Move the price, not the credit. For a buyer financing 100% with no down payment, that $8,000 of seller-paid closing costs helps make the VA purchase closable. Trading it away creates a higher cash requirement for you at the closing table. If necessary, raise the contract price and keep the $8,000 credit intact.

Every rung below keeps the full $8,000 and holds the net at or under the model’s own average, so nothing here asks the buyer to pay more than the sales support.

Rung	Contract price	Seller credit	Net to seller	What it concedes
Where it stands	$419,900	$8,000	$411,900	Full asking price; the credit is the only ask.
Split the difference	$424,000	$8,000	$416,000	Half the room between here and the model average.
Ceiling	$428,100	$8,000	$420,100	Net lands just under the model average. Past this the buyer is paying more than the evidence supports.

One gate sits above all three rungs: the Notice of Value. If the VA appraiser comes in below the contract price, none of these numbers survives — the amendatory clause returns the negotiation to that figure, and the buyer cannot make up a shortfall in cash. Agreeing a higher price today therefore carries no risk of overpaying, only of re-negotiating later; the ceiling above is about what to concede willingly, not about what the loan will permit. Diane owns which rung is used and when.