ALEX · Executive Summary

103 Maria Court, Georgetown

Comparable-sales valuation · Listed Property Buyer Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Gary C. BlackburnPrepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated BrokerSummary revised September 30, 2026, 12:43 PM CDTReport version 14.223

01What the evidence says this house is worth

ALEX AI Statistical Model

Minimum

$390,942

Average

$417,312

Median

$412,190

Maximum

$450,753

ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale is adjusted to this property’s 2,104 SF on the size relationship. Then each sale is weighted by how closely it resembles this house in the matching metric.

Traditional Arithmetic Model

Minimum

$407,593

Average

$448,080

Median

$450,262

Maximum

$484,299

The same five sales counted equally, without adjusting them to this house’s size. How and why the two rows differ is explained below.

02How the two rows differ

Why is this important? ALEX’s model is based on MIT PhD-level statistics and NVIDIA models. It adjusts each sale for the size of the home and for when the sale took place, adjusts for the differences between each sale and this house that the model identifies, and includes the manual adjustments Diane made after comparing each sold home with this property. See the detailed report.

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is $30,768 lower than the traditional arithmetic figure — 6.9% lower. The percentage is measured against the traditional average, the figure most readers would reach for first.

ALEX AI average

$417,312

Traditional average

$448,080

ALEX is lower by

$30,768 · 6.9%

03Why the two rows differ

Every one of the five comparables is smaller than this house. They run 1,652 to 1,960 SF against this property’s 2,104. A smaller house sells for fewer dollars but more dollars per SF, so averaging their per-SF rates and applying that rate here lifts the answer by the difference shown in section 02. The statistical model fits the size relationship from the sales themselves and adjusts each one to 2,104 SF before it counts — which is the whole of the difference between the two rows. The arithmetic figures are shown so that difference can be seen rather than taken on trust.

04The offer on the table, and the market around it

Offer, contract price

$419,900

Seller-paid costs

$8,000

Offer, net to seller

$411,900

County appraised value, 2026

$387,192

Financing

100% VA

Down payment

None

Days on market

Price reductions

None

The financing makes the VA appraisal, not the asking price, the number that governs. A VA-guaranteed purchase is appraised by an appraiser the VA assigns, who issues a Notice of Value. Where that notice comes in below the contract price, you can make up the difference, or you can terminate the contract and get your escrow money returned.

What this report can say about that appraisal is what the sales support. Five closed sales in Sierra Vista set the net evidence, and this offer nets the sale price to $411,900. This is inside the range of $390,942 to $450,753, and below the average of the ALEX AI Statistical Model ($417,312) and the average of the Traditional Arithmetic Model ($448,080). The VA’s appraiser will form an independent opinion from the same kind of evidence; this is the case that can be put in front of them, not a prediction of what they will write. Diane will guide the strategy with you.

Six other properties are for sale in Sierra Vista’s wider market, asking $390,000 to $675,000. They are context, not evidence: an asking price is a seller’s opinion of value, and none of them have sold. No active listing enters the valuation.

05If the seller counters on the $8,000

Move the price, not the credit. Because you are financing 100% with no down payment, that $8,000 of seller-paid closing costs helps make the VA purchase closable. Trading it away creates a higher cash requirement for you at the closing table. If necessary, raise the contract price and keep the $8,000 credit intact.

Every suggested counter keeps the full $8,000 credit for you at closing. No matter how you counter, consider always including the full $8,000 credit.

Counter	Contract price	Seller credit	Net to seller	What it concedes
Where it stands	$419,900	$8,000	$411,900	Full asking price; the credit is the only ask.
Split the difference	$422,600	$8,000	$414,600	Half the room between here and the model average.
Ceiling	$425,300	$8,000	$417,300	Net lands just under the model average. Past this you would be paying more than the evidence supports.

One gate remains: the Notice of Value. If the VA appraiser comes in below the contract price, you can make up the difference if you want, or you can terminate the contract and get your escrow money returned. The ceiling above is about what to concede willingly, not about what the loan will permit. You control which counter is used and when, or if you want to counter at a different price.

06Summary of comparable properties

All five are in Sierra Vista, this house’s own subdivision. The first column is the subject property and the columns after it are the comparable sales.

The house

	103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712	312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589	100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148	108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415	104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521	511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Distance from this house	—	0.31 mi NE	0.60 mi NE	0.55 mi NE	0.58 mi NE	0.05 mi SE
Living area	2,104 SF	1,960 SF	1,652 SF	1,690 SF	1,770 SF	1,931 SF
Bedrooms	4	4	3	3	3	3
Bathrooms	2	2	2	2	2	2
Year built	1992	1985	1994	1995	1995	1993
Lot	17,437 SF	8,830 SF	15,520 SF	8,181 SF	8,329 SF	12,066 SF
Garage	2-car	2-car	2-car	2-car	2-car	2-car
Levels	One	One	One	One	One	One

The sale

	103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712	312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589	100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148	108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415	104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521	511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Listing date	09/24/26	06/05/26	03/02/26	01/15/26	10/16/25	10/08/25
Close date	Active	07/31/26	05/22/26	05/22/26	12/03/25	11/14/25
Days on market	5	28	41	102	10	6
Original list price	$419,900	$392,000	$380,000	$380,000	$374,900	$370,000
Last list price	$419,900	$378,280	$374,900	$359,900	$374,900	$370,000
Closed price	—	$375,000	$375,500	$352,500	$380,000	$375,000
Buyer closing costs paid by the seller	—	−$6,625	−$6,000	—	—	—
Repairs at the buyer’s request	—	—	−$6,729	—	—	−$13,000
Net sale price	—	$368,375	$362,771	$352,500	$380,000	$362,000

Time adjustment

Months from sale to today	—	2 months	4 months	4 months	9 months	10 months
Market trend to today	—	−$5,439	+$2,350	+$2,284	+$5,724	−$4,283
Time-adjusted net sale price	—	$362,936	$365,121	$354,784	$385,724	$357,717
Per SF	—	$185	$221	$210	$218	$185

AI & Diane Adjustments

	103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712	312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589	100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148	108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415	104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521	511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Year built	—	+$25,786	−$7,255	−$10,575	−$11,400	−$3,620
Lot size	—	+$40,724	+$9,068	+$43,795	+$43,095	+$25,412
KitchenDiane revised	—	−$3,000	—	−$15,000	—	—
FlooringDiane revised	—	—	−$5,442	−$5,288	—	−$5,430
AI adjustments confirmed	—	+$66,510	−$3,629	+$12,932	+$31,695	+$16,362
Manual adjustments to AI values	—	−$3,000	—	—	—	—
Total AI & Diane adjustments	—	+$63,510	−$3,629	+$12,932	+$31,695	+$16,362

Adjustments added by Diane

Master Bath	—	−$7,000	—	−$15,000	—	−$5,000
Kitchen	—	—	−$4,000	—	—	—
Back Yard	—	—	+$3,000	—	—	—
2nd bath	—	—	—	−$10,000	—	—
Garage	—	—	—	−$2,000	—	—
Yard/Trees	—	—	—	+$10,000	—	—
Lighting	—	—	—	+$2,000	—	—
Both Baths	—	—	—	—	−$10,000	—
Yard Grooming	—	—	—	—	—	+$5,000
Total added by Diane	—	−$7,000	−$1,000	−$15,000	−$10,000	—

A row marked Diane revised is one where she changed the AI’s figure for at least one sale; her figures are in bold. Each table ends in its own subtotal, and the final valuation adds those subtotals to the net sale price.

Size adjustment

	103 Maria CtThis houseMLS # 5525712	312 Susana DrSale 1MLS # 4046589	100 Susana DrSale 2MLS # 9111148	108 Susana DrSale 3MLS # 5219415	104 Susana DrSale 4MLS # 1592521	511 Debora DrSale 5MLS # 7511020
Scaling to 2,104 SF	—	+$30,816	+$98,633	+$86,405	+$76,880	+$33,514
Statistical size adjustment	—	−$13,758	−$46,935	−$42,522	−$33,546	−$16,651
Total size adjustment	—	+$17,058	+$51,698	+$43,883	+$43,334	+$16,863

Scaling to 2,104 SF converts each adjusted sale price to this house’s size at that sale’s own price per SF; the statistical size adjustment then corrects for smaller houses selling for more per SF. Dollar figures are rounded where they first appear, and every total is the sum of the lines above it.

Final valuation

Weight in the statistical model	—	26.8%	24.2%	23.6%	12.8%	12.5%
Net sale price	—	$368,375	$362,771	$352,500	$380,000	$362,000
Time adjustment	—	−$5,439	+$2,350	+$2,284	+$5,724	−$4,283
AI & Diane adjustments	—	+$63,510	−$3,629	+$12,932	+$31,695	+$16,362
Added by Diane	—	−$7,000	−$1,000	−$15,000	−$10,000	—
Size adjustment	—	+$17,058	+$51,698	+$43,883	+$43,334	+$16,863
Final adjusted value	—	$436,504	$412,190	$396,599	$450,753	$390,942
Final adjusted sale price per SF	—	$207	$196	$188	$214	$186