ALEX · Executive Summary

1108 Dalea Blf, Round Rock

Comparable-sales valuation · Expired Property Seller Model · Williamson County

Prepared for TEMPLATEPrepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, RealtorSummary revised October 5, 2026, 9:33 PM CDTReport version 14.251

ALEX AI Statistical Model

ALEX’s statistical model uses six comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 3,435 SF using the size effect measured from these same sales. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale.

Traditional Arithmetic Model

The same six sales with the same adjustments, each scaled to this home’s size at its own price per SF and counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two rows differ.

What the two rows share. Both rows start from the same six sales and carry the same adjustments: the market trend from each sale’s date to today, the feature adjustments ALEX calculated, the changes and additions Diane made after comparing each sold home with this property, and scaling to this home’s size at each sale’s own price per SF.

Where they differ. The statistical model makes two further corrections. First, it applies a size adjustment measured from these sales, because price per SF falls as homes get larger. Second, it gives each sale a weight based on how closely it matches this home, where the traditional row counts every sale equally. The “Size adjustment” and “Final valuation” tables below show both corrections sale by sale, and the detailed report sets out the full method.

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is lower than the traditional arithmetic figure. The difference is shown below in dollars and as a percentage of the traditional average.

Three list prices, each computed from this valuation, its calibrated error band (±7.85%, measured on 147 past Williamson County sales) and the days on market of 1,599 closed sales in ZIP 78665. None is a chosen spread.

Net to you is the price less the seller-paid concessions customary in this subdivision. It is before the sales commission, title charges and the payoff of any mortgage, which this report does not have. What the market has already said: this listing asked $669,900 for 21 days and $639,999 for 40 days, and expired on 09/30/26 without a sale. The detailed report sets out the method, its evidence and its limits.

Offers and counters. Judge every offer by what it nets you, its price less the closing costs and repair credits it asks you to pay. A net of at least $532,082 is at or above the valuation; $490,692 to $532,081 is inside the error band, where a counter toward the price at the valuation, in smaller steps each round, is supported; below $490,692 is below the evidence. A credit lowers your net by its full amount; where a buyer needs one, raising the price by the same amount keeps your net, within what the buyer’s loan and the appraisal allow.

In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

Scaling to 3,435 SF. The homes that sold vary in size relative to this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 3814 Forest Creek Dr has 3,579 SF, and its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $487,214. Restated at this home’s size: $487,214 × 3,435 ÷ 3,579 = $467,611. The scaling line for 3814 Forest Creek Dr is the difference, −$19,603.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones, because every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever the home’s size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. ALEX measured, from these six sales, how price per SF changes with size, and applies that correction to each sale. For 3814 Forest Creek Dr the statistical size adjustment is +$16,989, so its total size adjustment is −$2,614. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.