LAYOUT TEMPLATE — not a valuation. Every figure on this page is fixture data: the property, the client, the comparables and the sale prices are not real. Client reports live under /valuations/<type>/.

ALEX market statistics

The market around this property

Layout template — fixture property, real market data

Every figure on this page is measured from closed sales recorded in the MLS. Nothing here is an estimate, a model output or a forecast: it is what actually sold, grouped by when it sold, and reported as the middle sale rather than the average so that one unusual house cannot move a line.

Choose the area

The same measures, for four different definitions of “this market”. The tightest one is the most relevant and the least certain; the widest is the most reliable and the least about this address. Each is measured at the finest interval it can honestly support — see the note under whichever you pick.

How this area is measured

ZIP 78628 carried 4,236 closed sales over the period, a median of 119 per month. That is enough for a monthly series, so these charts are monthly and each month is set against the same month a year earlier.

Where this market has been going

ZIP 78628 · single-family homes · median net price per square foot

$180 $190 $200 $210 $220 $230 Jan 24 Jul 24 Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 Jul 26 measured ← | → projected $200 what actually sold, month by month

There are currently 588 single-family homes for sale in ZIP 78628, against a recent selling rate of about 115 a month. At that rate it would take 5.1 of those periods to sell everything now on the market.

Ten measures

ZIP 78628 · single-family homes · through August 2026

Sales closed

How many homes actually sold each month

60 80 100 120 140 160 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 123 114 Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

The number of homes that changed hands. When this falls, everything else on this page is measured on fewer sales and moves around more.

Median net sale price

What the middle home sold for, after what the seller paid toward closing

$425,000 $450,000 $475,000 $500,000 $525,000 $550,000 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $440,000 $514,008 Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

Half the homes sold for more than this and half for less. It is the net figure — what the seller kept — so it already accounts for money the seller handed back at closing.

Median net price per square foot

The same price, with size taken out of it

$180 $190 $200 $210 $220 $230 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $200 $219 Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

Price per square foot lets a big house and a small one be compared on the same scale. This is the measure this valuation is built on.

Median days on market

How long the middle sale took to find its buyer

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 48 54 Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

Counted from the day the home first went on the market, not from its latest price change. Half of the sales took longer than this.

Sale price as a share of the first asking price

How much of the original asking price survived to closing

88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 95.9% 94.5% Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

One hundred percent means the home sold for exactly what it first asked. Ninety means the seller came down a tenth before it was over.

Share selling at or above the asking price

How often the seller gave up nothing

10% 20% 30% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 19.5% 17.5% Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

The percentage of sales that closed at or above the price they first asked. This is the clearest single sign of who has the upper hand.

Share where the seller paid the buyer's costs

How often a discount was handed over at closing instead of taken off the price

40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 48.8% 64.0% Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

The seller agreeing to pay part of the buyer's closing costs is a discount that never shows up in the sale price. It is common here, and a listing that ignores it is comparing itself against prices that were quietly reduced.

Size of that payment, when there was one

How much the seller paid, in the sales where they paid anything

$5,000 $7,500 $10,000 $12,500 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $11,500 $13,000 Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

Among only the sales that included one, this is the middle amount the seller paid toward the buyer's costs.

Share that cut the price before selling

How often the first asking price turned out to be wrong

40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 48.0% 52.6% Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

The percentage of sold homes that lowered their asking price at least once along the way. It is the cost of starting too high, counted.

Share that were newly built

How much of what sold came from a builder

30% 40% 50% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 35.0% 36.8% Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 Sep 2024 – Aug 2025 Sep 2023 – Aug 2024

Builders compete on incentives and rate buy-downs rather than on price, and they do not have to move out. The more of the market they hold, the less a resale seller controls.

How long sales take, by what they first asked

Every closed sale sorted by ORIGINAL asking price and cut into four equal groups

Q1 — $100,000 to $430,000 34 days · middle half 13–79 · n 1,057 daysQ2 — $430,000 to $559,000 63 days · middle half 22–138 · n 1,057 daysQ3 — $559,000 to $716,500 87 days · middle half 32–162 · n 1,057 daysQ4 — $717,025 to $3,737,633 85 days · middle half 19–172 · n 1,057 days

The bar is the middle sale in each group and the figure beside it carries the middle half, so the spread sits next to the average rather than behind it. Dearer homes take longer here by 51 days between the cheapest quarter and the dearest — though the spread inside any one group is wider than the gap between groups, which is itself the finding.

How long sales take, by how much was given up

The same sales, grouped by how far under the first asking price they closed

at or above the asking price 8 days · middle half 3–25 · n 642 dayswithin 2% under 13 days · middle half 1–41 · n 447 days2–5% under 40 days · middle half 18–82 · n 799 days5–10% under 78 days · middle half 40–129 · n 1,045 daysmore than 10% under 140 days · middle half 82–214 · n 1,295 days

A home that sits unsold usually gets reduced, so time taken and discount given move together. This says what company a listing keeps at a given price — not how long any particular home will take.

The middle half of prices per square foot

How tightly this market prices — the range around each median above

$160 $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul $235 $179 the middle sale the middle half of all sales

A quarter of sales landed below the lower line and a quarter above the upper one. When these lines sit close together, homes here price predictably and a valuation can be held to a tight range. When they spread apart, the middle figure means less and the range around it matters more.

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In plain terms

Every number on this page comes from homes that actually sold, grouped by when they sold, and reported as the middle sale of that group rather than the average — so one unusual house cannot move the line. Prices are what the seller kept after paying anything toward the buyer’s costs.

Which area, and why it matters

Four definitions of this market are offered because there is no single right one. A subdivision is what a buyer is really choosing between and is measured on the fewest sales; a county is measured on thousands and describes a market this property is not in. What each one carried:

  • Serenada West — 422 sales, a median of 39 per period, reported annual
  • ZIP 78628 — 4,236 sales, a median of 119 per period, reported monthly — shown first
  • Georgetown — 8,782 sales, a median of 251 per period, reported monthly
  • Williamson County — 29,879 sales, a median of 852 per period, reported monthly

Why the interval changes with the area

Each area is reported at the finest interval it can carry, and a period needs at least 10 sales before its median is worth drawing. Where a monthly series would rest on one or two houses a month, the page steps out to quarterly and then to annual rather than drawing a line that is mostly sampling error. The interval in use is stated above every set of charts, because a monthly chart and an annual chart of the same measure are not the same claim.

Net, not gross

Where a price appears it is the net figure: the closing price less any closing costs or repair credits the seller agreed to pay — what the seller actually received. Seller concessions are common here and a market reported on gross prices overstates what sellers are getting.

Days on market

The cumulative figure where the record carries one, counted from the day the home first came to market. The plain days-on-market field restarts at a price change, so a house available for seven months that cut its price last week reports seven days. Using it would make a slow market look fast.

Incomplete periods are dropped

The series ends at August 2026, the last period that is actually over. The current one is part-counted and would plot as a collapse that has not happened.

Assumptions, and where this could be wrong

A median from a thin period is less certain than one from a busy period, and the charts show the sales count so that can be judged. New construction is taken from the listing record, so a builder listing without the flag is counted as a resale. Concessions are recorded by the listing agent after closing and are known to be under-reported, which makes the concession measures a floor rather than a full count.

Source

ACTRIS MLS closed-sale records held in ALEX’s warehouse, read when this page was built. The most recent closing on file is 2026-09-08.

If there is something you want to see here that we are not generating, contact George Alexander — [email protected] or +1 713.918.9951.

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Built September 25, 2026, 10:27 PM CDT