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ALEX · Executive Summary

321 Angus Drive, Cedar Park

Comparable-sales valuation · Valuation · Williamson County

Prepared for Prepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHASummary revised October 27, 2026, 12:24 PM CDTReport version 14.461

01What the evidence says this house is worth

Both models start from the same sales. But at that point they dramatically differ.

ALEX Model

Minimum

$1,075,500

Average

$1,065,936

Median

$1,077,796

Maximum

$1,230,520

The ALEX Model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 3,714 SF using the size effect measured from 7,044 recent sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $1,000,000 and up, closed since July 2023. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale. The minimum is held at $1,075,500, 90% of the $1,195,000 last list price. The lowest single sale indicates $978,325.

Standard Arithmetic Model

Minimum

$928,500

Average

$1,007,050

Median

$970,218

Maximum

$1,161,389

The same five sales, with no adjustments: the average sale price per SF times this home’s 3,714 SF, every sale counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two Models differ.

02How the two Models differ

Standard Arithmetic Model. The math is simple:

  1. Sale Price per SF for Each Home Used as a Comparable Sale. For each home used as a comparable sale, divide its sale price by its total SF.
  2. Average Sale Price per SF. Add the Sale Price per SF for Each Home, then divide by the number of homes.
  3. Your Home’s SF. Use the SF on the MLS listing, the same source as every comparable sale.
  4. Your Home’s Estimated Value. Average Sale Price per SF multiplied by Your Home’s SF.

Example. $200 (Average Sale Price per SF) × 2,500 SF (Your Home’s SF) = $500,000 (Your Home’s Estimated Value).


ALEX Model. It is statistically sound and accurate:

  1. Comparable Sales. Closed sales like Your Home, chosen by ALEX’s selection rules or by the agent.
  2. Net Sale Price for Each Home Used as a Comparable Sale. Its sale price less the closing costs and repairs the seller paid, as recorded in the MLS.
  3. Time Adjustment. Each net sale price is brought to today with ALEX’s repeat-sales index for the county.
  4. Feature Adjustments. Each difference from Your Home — bathrooms, garage, lot size, view, age and the rest — is priced at what ABOR closed sales in the same price range show the market pays.
  5. Price per SF. Each adjusted price is divided by the sale’s own SF.
  6. At Your Home’s Size. That price per SF is multiplied by Your Home’s SF, then corrected because larger homes sell for less per SF, as measured on the market.
  7. Weighting. Sales most like Your Home count for more, whether ALEX or the agent selected them. Each sale’s weight is shown in the report.
  8. Your Home’s Estimated Value. The weighted average of the sales (a plain average when they count equally), with the minimum, median and maximum beside it.

How one sale becomes a value: 204 Broken Arrow Dr

Sale price
$1,015,000
What it sold for
Net sale price
$1,013,000
−$2,000
Less the buyer's closing costs and repairs the seller paid
Brought to today
$980,645
−$32,355
The market's change since it sold
Adjusted to this home
$1,018,705
+$38,060
ALEX's measured adjustments for every difference
Price per SF
$251.53/SF
Its adjusted price divided by its own 4,050 SF
At this home's size
$934,190
−$84,515
Its adjusted price per SF times this home's 3,714 SF
Size correction
$978,325
+$44,135
Larger homes sell for less per SF, measured on the market

This sale says this home is worth $978,325 and carries 27.9% of the weight, the most of the five sales, because it is the closest match. Every sale goes through the same steps. The weighted average of all five is $1,065,936. That is ALEX’s valuation.

How much each sale counts

204 Broken Arrow Dr: 27.9% 305 Stiles Cv: 26.7% 401 Bluff View Rd: 17.4% 401 Bluff Point Bnd: 14.2% 301 Raging River Rd: 13.9% 5 SALES
204 Broken Arrow Dr $978,32527.9%
305 Stiles Cv $1,079,04626.7%
401 Bluff View Rd $1,045,14217.4%
401 Bluff Point Bnd $1,077,79614.2%
301 Raging River Rd $1,230,52013.9%
Weighted average$1,065,936100%

Each slice is one sale’s share of the valuation. The closer a sale is to this home on the seven measures of similarity, the bigger its slice. The dollar figure is what that sale says this home is worth. Each one is multiplied by its share, and the results add up to the weighted average.

ALEX Model valuation is $58,886 higher than the Standard Arithmetic Model — 5.8% higher.

ALEX Model

$1,065,936

Standard Arithmetic Model

$1,007,050

The ALEX Model is

$58,886

higher

The ALEX Model is

5.8%

higher

03How the comparable sales are chosen

49
Closed sales in the market area that are fair evidence
Bank-owned, short, auction, HUD, corporate and probate sales, fair or poor condition and flood-zone sales are excluded.
25
In this home's subdivision
22
Same school district
Removed 3. Checked against the official district map.
22
Same elementary school
Checked against the official attendance-zone map. MLS corrected: 321 Angus (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 204 Broken Arrow (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 305 Stiles (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 401 Bluff View (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 401 Bluff Point (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 301 Raging River (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer).
20
The same kind of home
Removed: stories 1, sale-to-list 1.
16
Searched: Ranch at Brushy Creek, all phases and sections
This home's subdivision only, sales back to August 2022 when needed.
6
Within 25% of this home's size, sold in the last 11 months
5
Close enough on seven measures of similarity
Proximity: distance. Similarity: size, year built, lot size, bedrooms and baths. Recency: months since the sale.
5
Comparable sales used

04Appendix: summary of comparable properties

All five are in Ranch At Brushy Creek, this house’s own subdivision. In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

The house

Front of 321 Angus Dr321 Angus DrThis houseMLS # 5877261Front of 204 Broken Arrow Dr204 Broken Arrow DrSale 1MLS # 7120704Front of 305 Stiles Cv305 Stiles CvSale 2MLS # 7236573Front of 401 Bluff View Rd401 Bluff View RdSale 3MLS # 4065194Front of 401 Bluff Point Bnd401 Bluff Point BndSale 4MLS # 6578099Front of 301 Raging River Rd301 Raging River RdSale 5MLS # 6641911
Distance from this house—0.12 mi NW0.62 mi SE0.20 mi NNW0.18 mi N0.56 mi SE
Living area3,714 SF4,050 SF3,828 SF3,823 SF4,540 SF4,557 SF
Bedrooms444554
Bathrooms3.13.1444.14.1
Year built201020082014200820112014
Lot area9,108 SF12,153 SF12,053 SF16,740 SF14,279 SF15,006 SF
Garage3-car3-car3-car3-car4-car3-car
LevelsTwoTwoTwoTwoTwoTwo

The sale

Front of 321 Angus Dr321 Angus DrThis houseMLS # 5877261Front of 204 Broken Arrow Dr204 Broken Arrow DrSale 1MLS # 7120704Front of 305 Stiles Cv305 Stiles CvSale 2MLS # 7236573Front of 401 Bluff View Rd401 Bluff View RdSale 3MLS # 4065194Front of 401 Bluff Point Bnd401 Bluff Point BndSale 4MLS # 6578099Front of 301 Raging River Rd301 Raging River RdSale 5MLS # 6641911
Listing date08/06/2604/24/2607/07/2606/19/2610/09/2502/12/26
Close dateWithdrawn06/25/2608/21/2610/02/2612/17/2503/04/26
Days on market7425381214
Original list price$1,245,000$1,150,000$1,030,000$1,195,000$1,250,000$1,475,000
Last list price$1,195,000$1,049,000$1,030,000$1,144,000$1,200,000$1,475,000
Closed price—$1,015,000$999,999$1,075,000$1,135,000$1,425,000
Buyer closing costs paid by the seller—−$2,000—−$6,000−$3,000—
Repairs at the buyer’s request——−$3,000———
Net sale price—$1,013,000$996,999$1,069,000$1,132,000$1,425,000

Time adjustment

Months from sale to today—4 months2 months0 months10 months7 months
Market trend to today—−$32,355−$7,661—−$11,085−$31,475
Time-adjusted net sale price—$980,645$989,338$1,069,000$1,120,915$1,393,525
Per SF—$242$258$280$247$306

ALEX Model & Diane Adjustments

Front of 321 Angus Dr321 Angus DrThis houseMLS # 5877261Front of 204 Broken Arrow Dr204 Broken Arrow DrSale 1MLS # 7120704Front of 305 Stiles Cv305 Stiles CvSale 2MLS # 7236573Front of 401 Bluff View Rd401 Bluff View RdSale 3MLS # 4065194Front of 401 Bluff Point Bnd401 Bluff Point BndSale 4MLS # 6578099Front of 301 Raging River Rd301 Raging River RdSale 5MLS # 6641911
Age—+$4,256−$8,865+$4,531−$4,905−$11,698
Back yard——————
Bathrooms——————
Bedroom count——————
Casita——————
Corner lot——+$7,745+$7,917+$8,571—
Cul-de-sac——————
Deck——————
Exterior condition——————
Fence——————
Fireplace—+$12,072+$12,572+$12,852—+$16,589
Flood plain——————
Foundation——————
Front yard——————
Full bath——−$28,646−$29,284−$31,702−$37,799
Full bath 2——————
Full bath 3——————
Garage————−$28,396—
Guest suite————+$7,708+$9,191
Half bath——+$12,773+$13,057——
Interior lighting——————
Interior quality——————
Kitchen—+$26,134+$27,217—+$30,122+$35,914
Lot size—−$22,111−$22,367−$49,678−$39,729−$52,604
Outbuilding——————
Outdoor kitchen——————
Patio——+$6,967———
Pool——+$79,211—+$87,663—
Primary bath——————
Septic——————
Solar——————
Stories——————
Study office—−$11,372−$11,843——−$15,627
Updated or remodeled——————
View—+$29,081+$30,286+$30,961+$33,518+$16,375
Visible disrepair——————
Well——————
Total ALEX Model & Diane adjustments—+$38,060+$105,050−$9,644+$62,850−$39,659

Size adjustment

Front of 321 Angus Dr321 Angus DrThis houseMLS # 5877261Front of 204 Broken Arrow Dr204 Broken Arrow DrSale 1MLS # 7120704Front of 305 Stiles Cv305 Stiles CvSale 2MLS # 7236573Front of 401 Bluff View Rd401 Bluff View RdSale 3MLS # 4065194Front of 401 Bluff Point Bnd401 Bluff Point BndSale 4MLS # 6578099Front of 301 Raging River Rd301 Raging River RdSale 5MLS # 6641911
Scaling to 3,714 SF—−$84,515−$32,591−$30,204−$215,372−$250,452
Statistical size adjustment—+$44,135+$17,249+$15,990+$109,403+$127,106
Total size adjustment—−$40,380−$15,342−$14,214−$105,969−$123,346

Scaling to 3,714 SF. Every home that sold is larger than this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 204 Broken Arrow Dr has 4,050 SF. Its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $1,018,705. Restated at this home’s size: $1,018,705 × 3,714 ÷ 4,050 = $934,190. The scaling line for 204 Broken Arrow Dr is the difference, −$84,515.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones. Every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever its size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. Five sales are too few to measure reliably how price per SF changes with size, so ALEX measured it from 7,044 sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $1,000,000 and up, closed since July 2023, holding age, lot, rooms and date of sale constant, and applies that correction to each sale. For 204 Broken Arrow Dr the statistical size adjustment is +$44,135, so its total size adjustment is −$40,380. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.

Final valuation

Front of 321 Angus Dr321 Angus DrThis houseMLS # 5877261Front of 204 Broken Arrow Dr204 Broken Arrow DrSale 1MLS # 7120704Front of 305 Stiles Cv305 Stiles CvSale 2MLS # 7236573Front of 401 Bluff View Rd401 Bluff View RdSale 3MLS # 4065194Front of 401 Bluff Point Bnd401 Bluff Point BndSale 4MLS # 6578099Front of 301 Raging River Rd301 Raging River RdSale 5MLS # 6641911
Net sale price—$1,013,000$996,999$1,069,000$1,132,000$1,425,000
Time adjustment—−$32,355−$7,661—−$11,085−$31,475
Time-adjusted net sale price—$980,645$989,338$1,069,000$1,120,915$1,393,525
ALEX Model & Diane adjustments—+$38,060+$105,050−$9,644+$62,850−$39,659
Adjusted value—$1,018,705$1,094,388$1,059,356$1,183,765$1,353,866
Size adjustment—−$40,380−$15,342−$14,214−$105,969−$123,346
Final adjusted value—$978,325$1,079,046$1,045,142$1,077,796$1,230,520
Final adjusted sale price per SF—$263$291$281$290$331