ALEX · Executive Summary
2708 Springwood Lane, Georgetown
Comparable-sales valuation · Valuation · Williamson County
The detailed report: https://alex-companies.com/valuations/buyer-listed/2708-springwood-ln-georgetown-tx--canonical.html
Every
calculation, comparable sale and source behind this summary, always the current version.
This executive summary: https://alex-companies.com/valuations/buyer-listed/2708-springwood-ln-georgetown-tx--executive-summary.html
The
permanent link to this summary, always the current version.
01What the evidence says this house is worth
What the two Models share. Both models start from the same sales. But at that point they dramatically differ.
ALEX AI Statistical Model
Minimum
Average
Median
Maximum
ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 2,990 SF using the size effect measured from 15,182 recent sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $600,000 to $1,000,000, closed since July 2023. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale. The minimum is held at $607,500, 90% of the $675,000 current list price. The lowest single sale indicates $567,721.
Traditional Arithmetic Model
Minimum
Average
Median
Maximum
The same five sales, with no adjustments: the average sale price per SF times this home’s 2,990 SF, every sale counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two Models differ.
02How the two Models differ
Arithmetic Model. The math is simple:
- Sale Price per SF for Each Home. For each home used as a comparable sale, divide its sale price by its total SF.
- Average Sale Price per SF. Add the Sale Price per SF for Each Home, then divide by the number of homes.
- Your Home’s SF. Use the SF on the MLS listing, the same source as every comparable sale.
- Your Home’s Estimated Value. Average Sale Price per SF multiplied by Your Home’s SF.
Example. $200 (Average Sale Price per SF) × 2,500 SF (Your Home’s SF) = $500,000 (Your Home’s Estimated Value).
ALEX Model. It is completely logical, statistically accurate and defensible at an MIT PhD Dissertation Committee Review. But it requires an NVIDIA mini, or something equivalent, to do the math. The detailed report sets out the full method.
How one sale becomes a value: 205 Axis Loop
This sale says this home is worth $634,749 and carries 27.1% of the weight, the most of the 5 sales, because it is the closest match. Every sale goes through the same steps. The weighted average of all 5 is $607,598. That is ALEX’s valuation.
How much each sale counts
| 205 Axis Loop | $634,749 | 27.1% |
| 109 Lake Spring Cir | $567,721 | 23.0% |
| 405 Granite Rock Ln | $624,939 | 18.6% |
| 4209 Sevilla Dr | $612,871 | 18.3% |
| 126 Esparada Dr | $589,176 | 12.9% |
| Weighted average | $607,598 | 100% |
Each slice is one sale’s share of the valuation. The closer a sale is to this home on the six measures of similarity, the bigger its slice. The dollar figure is what that sale says this home is worth. Each one is multiplied by its share, and the results add up to the weighted average.
Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is lower than the traditional arithmetic figure. The difference is shown below in dollars and as a percentage of the traditional average.
ALEX AI average
Traditional average
Difference
03How the comparable sales are chosen
04Appendix: summary of comparable properties
In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.
The house
 2708 Springwood LnThis houseMLS # 4222044 |  205 Axis LoopSale 1MLS # 9324797 |  109 Lake Spring CirSale 2MLS # 7698731 |  405 Granite Rock LnSale 3MLS # 6033121 |  4209 Sevilla DrSale 4MLS # 9165244 |  126 Esparada DrSale 5MLS # 4978738 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance from this house | — | 0.48 mi NNW | 2.28 mi NW | 2.01 mi S | 1.45 mi N | 1.13 mi NNE |
| Living area | 2,990 SF | 2,562 SF | 2,803 SF | 2,513 SF | 3,189 SF | 2,586 SF |
| Bedrooms | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Bathrooms | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Year built | 2004 | 2020 | 2016 | 2018 | 1984 | 1978 |
| Lot area | 20,190 SF | 16,814 SF | 11,326 SF | 7,492 SF | 34,412 SF | 36,590 SF |
| Garage | 3-car | 3-car | 2-car | 3-car | 2-car | 2-car |
| Levels | One | One | One | One | One | Two |
The sale
| 2708 Springwood LnThis houseMLS # 4222044 | 205 Axis LoopSale 1MLS # 9324797 | 109 Lake Spring CirSale 2MLS # 7698731 | 405 Granite Rock LnSale 3MLS # 6033121 | 4209 Sevilla DrSale 4MLS # 9165244 | 126 Esparada DrSale 5MLS # 4978738 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listing date | 10/10/26 | 06/19/26 | 07/07/26 | 07/30/26 | 08/18/26 | 07/17/26 |
| Close date | Active | 08/21/26 | 08/17/26 | 08/18/26 | 10/06/26 | 08/27/26 |
| Days on market | 2 | 32 | 3 | 5 | None | 13 |
| Original list price | $675,000 | $660,000 | $559,000 | $590,000 | $674,900 | $555,555 |
| Last list price | $675,000 | $660,000 | $559,000 | $590,000 | $674,900 | $555,555 |
| Closed price | — | $645,000 | $559,000 | $590,000 | $648,000 | $555,555 |
| Buyer closing costs paid by the seller | — | — | — | — | −$20,040 | −$600 |
| Repairs at the buyer’s request | — | — | −$1,400 | — | — | — |
| Net sale price | — | $645,000 | $557,600 | $590,000 | $627,960 | $554,955 |
Time adjustment
| Months from sale to today | — | 2 months | 2 months | 2 months | 0 months | 2 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market trend to today | — | −$3,539 | −$3,059 | −$3,237 | +$6,905 | −$3,045 |
| Time-adjusted net sale price | — | $641,461 | $554,541 | $586,763 | $634,865 | $551,910 |
| Per SF | — | $250 | $198 | $233 | $199 | $213 |
AI & Diane Adjustments
| 2708 Springwood LnThis houseMLS # 4222044 | 205 Axis LoopSale 1MLS # 9324797 | 109 Lake Spring CirSale 2MLS # 7698731 | 405 Granite Rock LnSale 3MLS # 6033121 | 4209 Sevilla DrSale 4MLS # 9165244 | 126 Esparada DrSale 5MLS # 4978738 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | — | −$21,115 | −$14,161 | −$17,466 | +$26,885 | +$30,712 |
| Lot size | — | +$8,699 | +$24,579 | +$44,557 | −$25,825 | −$25,304 |
| Stories | — | — | — | — | — | +$14,313 |
| Bedroom count | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Full bath | — | — | — | — | −$17,375 | +$15,268 |
| Primary bath | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Full bath 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Full bath 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Half bath | — | — | −$6,801 | — | — | — |
| Garage | — | — | +$13,662 | — | +$15,563 | +$13,675 |
| Kitchen | — | −$16,207 | −$14,493 | −$15,322 | — | — |
| Interior quality | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Interior lighting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pool | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| View | — | — | — | — | −$10,843 | −$9,528 |
| Fireplace | — | — | +$6,694 | — | — | — |
| Study office | — | −$7,052 | — | −$6,667 | — | — |
| Patio | — | — | — | — | +$4,226 | — |
| Deck | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Outdoor kitchen | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Outbuilding | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Solar | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Exterior condition | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Front yard | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Back yard | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Updated or remodeled | — | — | — | — | — | −$33,718 |
| Cul-de-sac | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Corner lot | — | — | — | — | +$4,698 | +$4,128 |
| Guest suite | — | — | −$3,709 | — | −$4,225 | −$3,712 |
| Fence | — | −$7,013 | −$6,271 | −$6,629 | — | — |
| Foundation | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Septic | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Well | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flood plain | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Casita | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Visible disrepair | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bathrooms | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total AI & Diane adjustments | — | −$42,688 | −$500 | −$1,527 | −$6,896 | +$5,834 |
Size adjustment
| 2708 Springwood LnThis houseMLS # 4222044 | 205 Axis LoopSale 1MLS # 9324797 | 109 Lake Spring CirSale 2MLS # 7698731 | 405 Granite Rock LnSale 3MLS # 6033121 | 4209 Sevilla DrSale 4MLS # 9165244 | 126 Esparada DrSale 5MLS # 4978738 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scaling to 2,990 SF | — | +$100,029 | +$36,962 | +$111,085 | −$39,187 | +$87,134 |
| Statistical size adjustment | — | −$64,053 | −$23,282 | −$71,382 | +$24,089 | −$55,702 |
| Total size adjustment | — | +$35,976 | +$13,680 | +$39,703 | −$15,098 | +$31,432 |
Scaling to 2,990 SF. The homes that sold vary in size relative to this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 205 Axis Loop has 2,562 SF. Its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $598,773. Restated at this home’s size: $598,773 × 2,990 ÷ 2,562 = $698,802. The scaling line for 205 Axis Loop is the difference, +$100,029.
Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones. Every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever its size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. Five sales are too few to measure reliably how price per SF changes with size, so ALEX measured it from 15,182 sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $600,000 to $1,000,000, closed since July 2023, holding age, lot, rooms and date of sale constant, and applies that correction to each sale. For 205 Axis Loop the statistical size adjustment is −$64,053, so its total size adjustment is +$35,976. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.
Final valuation
| 2708 Springwood LnThis houseMLS # 4222044 | 205 Axis LoopSale 1MLS # 9324797 | 109 Lake Spring CirSale 2MLS # 7698731 | 405 Granite Rock LnSale 3MLS # 6033121 | 4209 Sevilla DrSale 4MLS # 9165244 | 126 Esparada DrSale 5MLS # 4978738 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weight in the statistical model | — | 27.1% | 23.0% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 12.9% |
| Net sale price | — | $645,000 | $557,600 | $590,000 | $627,960 | $554,955 |
| Time adjustment | — | −$3,539 | −$3,059 | −$3,237 | +$6,905 | −$3,045 |
| AI & Diane adjustments | — | −$42,688 | −$500 | −$1,527 | −$6,896 | +$5,834 |
| Size adjustment | — | +$35,976 | +$13,680 | +$39,703 | −$15,098 | +$31,432 |
| Final adjusted value | — | $634,749 | $567,721 | $624,939 | $612,871 | $589,176 |
| Final adjusted sale price per SF | — | $212 | $190 | $209 | $205 | $197 |