ALEX · Executive Summary

1108 Dalea Blf, Round Rock

Comparable-sales valuation · Expired Property Seller Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Raymond Christopher & Dana Lynn SmythPrepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated BrokerSummary revised October 11, 2026, 10:23 PM CDTReport version 14.322

What the two Models share. Both models start from the same sales. But at that point they dramatically differ.

ALEX AI Statistical Model

ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 3,435 SF using the size effect measured from 15,182 recent sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $600,000 to $1,000,000, closed since July 2023. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale. The minimum is held at $575,999, 90% of the $639,999 last list price. The lowest single sale indicates $545,614.

Traditional Arithmetic Model

The same five sales, with no adjustments: the average sale price per SF times this home’s 3,435 SF, every sale counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two Models differ.

Arithmetic Model. The math is simple:

1. Sale Price per SF for Each Home. For each home used as a comparable sale, divide its sale price by its total SF.
2. Average Sale Price per SF. Add the Sale Price per SF for Each Home, then divide by the number of homes.
3. Your Home’s SF. Use the SF on the MLS listing, the same source as every comparable sale.
4. Your Home’s Estimated Value. Average Sale Price per SF multiplied by Your Home’s SF.

Example. $200 (Average Sale Price per SF) × 2,500 SF (Your Home’s SF) = $500,000 (Your Home’s Estimated Value).

ALEX Model. It is completely logical, statistically accurate and defensible at an MIT PhD Dissertation Committee Review. But it requires an NVIDIA mini, or something equivalent, to do the math. The detailed report sets out the full method.

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is lower than the traditional arithmetic figure. The difference is shown below in dollars and as a percentage of the traditional average.

Slotting against competitors

4 competing homes for sale in Forest Ridge and the subdivisions that share its name, from the highest list price to the lowest. The gold row at the top is this home at the recommended list price.

CDOM is cumulative days on market. SF is the living area on each MLS listing; current list $/SF is the current list price divided by it. Each address opens the listing on alex.realestate.

This report recommends one list price. For a listing relaunched with a new brokerage it sits 4% to 8% under the failed price, where relaunches did best. The sale price below is the evidence it rests on. It is not a list price.

Slotted recommended list price: $594,900 · 25–33 days to a contract (range across similar groups of sales). The arithmetic based valuation is above $639,999, a price the market already declined, so the recommendation is set below that price. It sits just under the nearest competing listing, 1010 Twin Terrace Ct at $594,990, so buyers see this one first. It is 7.0% below the failed price, inside the 4–8% range where relaunches did best.

Sale price: $591,000 · 25–32 days to a contract (range across similar groups of sales). What the comparable sales support as a sale price, before the repairs and buyer closing costs sellers here customarily pay (0.22% of the price). It is the adjusted net value, $589,857, with those concessions added back, rounded to the nearest $1,000.

What the market has already said: this listing asked $669,900 for 21 days and $639,999 for 40 days, and expired on 09/30/26 without a sale. The earliest it can be listed again is 10/30/26, 30 days after it expired. The detailed report sets out the method, its evidence and its limits.

Relaunching after a listing that did not sell. Of 6,313 expired listings relaunched with a new brokerage, 37% of those relaunched with a 6-8% cut sold within 90 days, against 25% of those relaunched at the same price, allowing for price range, season and time off the market. Cuts of less than 4% sold measurably less often. Cuts deeper than 8% sold no faster and closed lower. The median relaunch was 3.3% below the old price and closed at 91.1% of it. The recommended $594,900 is 7.0% below the failed $639,999. Relaunches in December to February sold best (53% within 180 days); June to August sold worst (42%). These figures describe what happened; they do not prove the price or the timing caused the sale.

How similar listings sold at these prices. At the recommended list price ($594,900), closed at about 96.6% of the list price. At the sale price ($591,000), closed at about 96.8% of the list price. The chance of selling is not stated: in this county and price range it did not hold up when tested on later listings.

The price starts at the recommended list price, $594,900.

How each line is set. Concessions are the buyer’s closing costs paid by the seller and repair credits together: the median share of the price across 22 closed sales in Forest Ridge over 24 months. A sale recording concessions above 10% of its price is left out as an entry error, because every lender caps seller concessions between 3% and 9% (no sales here). The title premium is the Texas promulgated basic premium for a policy at the sale price. Taxes prorate the year’s bill to the closing date. Commissions, the payoff and other costs are as entered, and a blank is never counted as zero. The title company’s settlement statement is the figure that governs.

Offers and counters. Judge every offer by what it nets you. That is its price less the closing costs and repair credits it asks you to pay.

• A net of at least $589,857 is at or above the valuation.
• $537,336 to $589,856 is below the valuation, inside the error band. Counter toward the valuation, in smaller steps each round.
• Below $537,336 is below the evidence.

A credit lowers your net by its full amount. Where a buyer needs one, raising the price by the same amount keeps your net, within what the buyer’s loan and the appraisal allow.

All five are in Forest Ridge, this house’s own subdivision. In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

Scaling to 3,435 SF. Every home that sold is smaller than this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 3305 Starlight Vis has 2,824 SF. Its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $528,674. Restated at this home’s size: $528,674 × 3,435 ÷ 2,824 = $643,058. The scaling line for 3305 Starlight Vis is the difference, +$114,384.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones. Every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever its size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. Five sales are too few to measure reliably how price per SF changes with size, so ALEX measured it from 15,182 sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $600,000 to $1,000,000, closed since July 2023, holding age, lot, rooms and date of sale constant, and applies that correction to each sale. For 3305 Starlight Vis the statistical size adjustment is −$73,793, so its total size adjustment is +$40,591. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.