ALEX · Executive Summary
Comparable-sales valuation · Valuation · Williamson County
ALEX AI Statistical Model
Minimum
Average
Median
Maximum
ALEX’s statistical model uses six comparable sales. Each sale is adjusted to this property’s 3,435 SF on the size relationship. Then each sale is weighted by how closely it resembles this house in the matching metric.
Traditional Arithmetic Model
Minimum
Average
Median
Maximum
The same six sales counted equally, without adjusting them to this house’s size. How the two rows differ is explained below.
Why is this important? ALEX’s model is based on MIT PhD-level statistics and NVIDIA models. It adjusts each sale for the size of the home and for when the sale took place, adjusts for the differences between each sale and this house that the model identifies, and includes the manual adjustments The made after comparing each sold home with this property. See the detailed report.
Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is $14,901 lower than the traditional arithmetic figure — 2.7% lower. The percentage is measured against the traditional average, the figure most readers would reach for first.
ALEX AI average
Traditional average
ALEX is lower by
The first column is the subject property and the columns after it are the comparable sales.
1108 Dalea BlfThis houseMLS # 8718539 | 3814 Forest Creek DrSale 1MLS # 1105372 | 1914 Mulligan DrSale 2MLS # 4753905 | 202 Nick Price LoopSale 3MLS # 5953982 | 3305 Starlight VisSale 4MLS # 5965867 | 3807 Cypress Point CvSale 5MLS # 5052519 | 206 Paul Azinger CtSale 6MLS # 2855846 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance from this house | — | 0.90 mi ENE | 0.99 mi E | 1.51 mi ESE | 0.34 mi ESE | 1.75 mi E | 1.54 mi E |
| Living area | 3,435 SF | 3,579 SF | 3,916 SF | 3,187 SF | 2,824 SF | 3,138 SF | 3,320 SF |
| Bedrooms | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Year built | 1999 | 1998 | 2001 | 2006 | 1998 | 2007 | 2012 |
| Lot | 8,986 SF | 25,731 SF | 13,094 SF | 8,019 SF | 8,455 SF | 15,220 SF | 7,501 SF |
| Garage | 2-car | 3-car | 3-car | 2-car | 2-car | 2-car | 2-car |
| Levels | Two | Two | Two | Two | Two | Two | Two |
1108 Dalea BlfThis houseMLS # 8718539 | 3814 Forest Creek DrSale 1MLS # 1105372 | 1914 Mulligan DrSale 2MLS # 4753905 | 202 Nick Price LoopSale 3MLS # 5953982 | 3305 Starlight VisSale 4MLS # 5965867 | 3807 Cypress Point CvSale 5MLS # 5052519 | 206 Paul Azinger CtSale 6MLS # 2855846 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listing date | 07/31/26 | 05/01/26 | 04/16/26 | 04/16/26 | 09/01/26 | 06/26/26 | 07/09/26 |
| Close date | Active | 08/03/26 | 05/27/26 | 05/28/26 | 10/02/26 | 08/06/26 | 09/29/26 |
| Days on market | 64 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| Original list price | $669,900 | $749,900 | $710,000 | $525,000 | $525,000 | $574,000 | $550,000 |
| Last list price | $639,999 | $724,900 | $710,000 | $525,000 | $525,000 | $574,000 | $550,000 |
| Closed price | — | $700,000 | $700,001 | $515,000 | $525,000 | $569,000 | $545,000 |
| Buyer closing costs paid by the seller | — | — | — | — | −$750 | — | −$6,500 |
| Repairs at the buyer’s request | — | −$250 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net sale price | — | $699,750 | $700,001 | $515,000 | $524,250 | $569,000 | $538,500 |
| Months from sale to today | — | 1 month | 4 months | 4 months | — | 1 month | 0 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market trend to today | — | +$12,391 | +$4,535 | +$3,337 | — | +$10,076 | +$2,836 |
| Time-adjusted net sale price | — | $712,141 | $704,536 | $518,337 | $524,250 | $579,076 | $541,336 |
| Per SF | — | $199 | $180 | $163 | $186 | $185 | $163 |
1108 Dalea BlfThis houseMLS # 8718539 | 3814 Forest Creek DrSale 1MLS # 1105372 | 1914 Mulligan DrSale 2MLS # 4753905 | 202 Nick Price LoopSale 3MLS # 5953982 | 3305 Starlight VisSale 4MLS # 5965867 | 3807 Cypress Point CvSale 5MLS # 5052519 | 206 Paul Azinger CtSale 6MLS # 2855846 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year built | — | +$6,998 | −$14,000 | −$36,050 | +$5,243 | −$45,520 | −$70,005 |
| Lot size | — | −$201,237 | −$49,367 | +$11,622 | +$6,387 | −$74,914 | +$17,852 |
| Full bath | — | −$12,596 | −$12,600 | — | — | — | −$10,770 |
| Garage | — | −$40,586 | −$40,600 | — | — | — | — |
| Kitchen | — | — | — | +$12,875 | +$13,106 | — | +$13,463 |
| Flooring | — | — | — | +$12,875 | — | — | — |
| View | — | — | — | — | −$4,194 | — | — |
| Fireplace | — | +$6,998 | +$7,000 | +$5,000 | +$5,000 | +$5,000 | +$5,000 |
| Media room | — | +$10,496 | +$10,500 | +$7,725 | +$7,864 | — | — |
| Soaking tub | — | +$5,000 | +$5,000 | +$5,000 | — | — | +$5,000 |
| Workshop | — | — | — | — | — | −$5,000 | — |
| Chandelier | — | — | — | — | −$2,000 | −$2,000 | — |
| Mature trees | — | — | — | +$5,150 | −$5,243 | +$5,690 | +$5,385 |
| Pergola | — | — | — | — | — | −$3,000 | — |
| Fire pit | — | — | — | — | — | — | −$2,000 |
| AI adjustments confirmed | — | −$224,927 | −$94,067 | +$24,197 | +$26,163 | −$119,744 | −$36,075 |
| Manual adjustments to AI values | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total AI & The adjustments | — | −$224,927 | −$94,067 | +$24,197 | +$26,163 | −$119,744 | −$36,075 |
| Total added by The | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|---|
1108 Dalea BlfThis houseMLS # 8718539 | 3814 Forest Creek DrSale 1MLS # 1105372 | 1914 Mulligan DrSale 2MLS # 4753905 | 202 Nick Price LoopSale 3MLS # 5953982 | 3305 Starlight VisSale 4MLS # 5965867 | 3807 Cypress Point CvSale 5MLS # 5052519 | 206 Paul Azinger CtSale 6MLS # 2855846 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scaling to 3,435 SF | — | −$19,603 | −$74,984 | +$42,218 | +$119,087 | +$43,474 | +$17,502 |
| Statistical size adjustment | — | +$16,989 | +$54,217 | −$31,002 | −$81,029 | −$37,412 | −$14,087 |
| Total size adjustment | — | −$2,614 | −$20,767 | +$11,216 | +$38,058 | +$6,062 | +$3,415 |
Scaling to 3,435 SF. The homes that sold are different sizes from this one. To compare them fairly, we first change each sale’s price to what it would be at this home’s size. We do that by using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 3814 Forest Creek Dr has 3,579 SF and its price after the time and feature adjustments is $487,214. The math is $487,214 × 3,435 ÷ 3,579 = $467,611. So the scaling line for 3814 Forest Creek Dr is −$19,603.
Statistical size adjustment. Scaling alone gives too high a number. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than bigger homes, because every home has things like a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same no matter how big the home is. So when a smaller home’s price per SF is stretched to a bigger home, the value comes out too high. ALEX measured, from these six sales, how much the price per SF drops as homes get bigger, and takes that amount back off. For 3814 Forest Creek Dr the statistical size adjustment is +$16,989, so its total size adjustment is −$2,614. The smaller a sale is compared with this home, the bigger this correction. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the lines above it added together.
1108 Dalea BlfThis houseMLS # 8718539 | 3814 Forest Creek DrSale 1MLS # 1105372 | 1914 Mulligan DrSale 2MLS # 4753905 | 202 Nick Price LoopSale 3MLS # 5953982 | 3305 Starlight VisSale 4MLS # 5965867 | 3807 Cypress Point CvSale 5MLS # 5052519 | 206 Paul Azinger CtSale 6MLS # 2855846 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weight in the statistical model | — | 17.3% | 17.2% | 16.7% | 16.6% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Net sale price | — | $699,750 | $700,001 | $515,000 | $524,250 | $569,000 | $538,500 |
| Time adjustment | — | +$12,391 | +$4,535 | +$3,337 | — | +$10,076 | +$2,836 |
| AI & The adjustments | — | −$224,927 | −$94,067 | +$24,197 | +$26,163 | −$119,744 | −$36,075 |
| Added by The | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Size adjustment | — | −$2,614 | −$20,767 | +$11,216 | +$38,058 | +$6,062 | +$3,415 |
| Final adjusted value | — | $484,600 | $589,702 | $553,750 | $588,471 | $465,394 | $508,676 |
| Final adjusted sale price per SF | — | $141 | $172 | $161 | $171 | $135 | $148 |