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ALEX · Executive Summary

109 Leon Loop, Liberty Hill

Comparable-sales valuation · Expired Property Seller Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Prepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated BrokerSummary revised October 28, 2026, 1:36 PM CDTReport version 14.473

The detailed report: https://alex-companies.com/valuations/seller-expired/109-leon-loop-liberty-hill-tx--canonical.html
Every calculation, comparable sale and source behind this summary, always the current version.

This executive summary: https://alex-companies.com/valuations/seller-expired/109-leon-loop-liberty-hill-tx--executive-summary.html
The permanent link to this summary, always the current version.

Both models start from the same sales. But at that point they dramatically differ.

ALEX Model

The ALEX Model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 3,316 SF using the size effect measured from 15,182 recent sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $600,000 to $1,000,000, closed since July 2023. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale. The minimum is held at $584,910, 90% of the $649,900 last list price. The lowest single sale indicates $563,227.

Standard Arithmetic Model

The same five sales, with no adjustments: the average sale price per SF times this home’s 3,316 SF, every sale counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two Models differ.

Standard Arithmetic Model. The math is simple:

1. Sale Price per SF for Each Home Used as a Comparable Sale. For each home used as a comparable sale, divide its sale price by its total SF.
2. Average Sale Price per SF. Add the Sale Price per SF for Each Home, then divide by the number of homes.
3. Your Home’s SF. Use the SF on the MLS listing, the same source as every comparable sale.
4. Your Home’s Estimated Value. Average Sale Price per SF multiplied by Your Home’s SF.

Example. $200 (Average Sale Price per SF) × 2,500 SF (Your Home’s SF) = $500,000 (Your Home’s Estimated Value).

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ALEX Model. It is statistically sound and accurate:

1. Comparable Sales. Closed sales like Your Home, chosen by ALEX’s selection rules or by the agent.
2. Net Sale Price for Each Home Used as a Comparable Sale. Its sale price less the closing costs and repairs the seller paid, as recorded in the MLS.
3. Time Adjustment. Each net sale price is brought to today with ALEX’s index.
4. Feature Adjustments. Each difference from Your Home — bathrooms, garage, lot size, view, age and the rest — is priced at what ABOR closed sales in the same price range show the market pays.
5. Price per SF. Each adjusted price is divided by the sale’s own SF.
6. At Your Home’s Size. That price per SF is multiplied by Your Home’s SF, then corrected because larger homes sell for less per SF, as measured on the market.
7. Weighting. Sales most like Your Home count for more, whether ALEX or the agent selected them. Each sale’s weight is shown in the report.
8. Your Home’s Estimated Value. The weighted average of the sales (a plain average when they count equally), with the minimum, median and maximum beside it.

ALEX Model valuation is $36,592 lower than the Standard Arithmetic Model — 5.8% lower.

Slotting against competitors

84 competing homes for sale in Santa Rita Ranch South and the subdivisions that share its name, from the highest list price to the lowest. The gold row at the top is this home at the recommended list price.

CDOM is cumulative days on market. SF is the living area on each MLS listing; current list $/SF is the current list price divided by it. Each address opens the listing on alex.realestate.

This report recommends one list price. For a listing relaunched with a new brokerage it sits 4% to 8% under the failed price, where relaunches did best. The sale price below is the evidence it rests on. It is not a list price.

Slotted recommended list price: $580,900. Priced just under the $600,000 search price, so buyers who filter at $600,000 see it. The nearest competing listing, 113 Cascia Cir at $580,000, is already at or below it. It is 10.6% below the failed price.

Sale price: $597,000. What the comparable sales support as a sale price, before the repairs and buyer closing costs sellers here customarily pay (0.62% of the price). It is the adjusted net value, $593,272, with those concessions added back, rounded to the nearest $1,000.

What the market has already said: this listing asked $739,900 for 11 days, $719,900 for 19 days, $724,900 for 2 days, $714,900 for 27 days, $699,900 for 33 days and $649,900 for 28 days, and expired on 10/20/26 without a sale. The earliest it can be listed again is 11/19/26, 30 days after it expired. The detailed report sets out the method, its evidence and its limits.

Relaunching after a listing that did not sell. Of 6,313 expired listings relaunched with a new brokerage, 37% of those relaunched with a 6-8% cut sold within 90 days, against 25% of those relaunched at the same price, allowing for price range, season and time off the market. Cuts of less than 4% sold measurably less often. Cuts deeper than 8% sold no faster and closed lower. The median relaunch was 3.3% below the old price and closed at 91.1% of it. The recommended $580,900 is 10.6% below the failed $649,900. Relaunches in December to February sold best (53% within 180 days); June to August sold worst (42%). These figures describe what happened; they do not prove the price or the timing caused the sale.

How similar listings sold at these prices. At the recommended list price ($580,900), closed at about 97.4% of the list price. At the sale price ($597,000), closed at about 96.8% of the list price. The chance of selling is not stated: in this county and price range it did not hold up when tested on later listings.

The price starts at the recommended list price, $580,900.

How each line is set. Concessions are the buyer’s closing costs paid by the seller and repair credits together: the median share of the price across 61 closed sales in Santa Rita Ranch South over 24 months. A sale recording concessions above 10% of its price is left out as an entry error, because every lender caps seller concessions between 3% and 9% (no sales here). The title premium is the Texas promulgated basic premium for a policy at the sale price. Taxes prorate the year’s bill to the closing date. Commissions, the payoff and other costs are as entered, and a blank is never counted as zero. The title company’s settlement statement is the figure that governs.

Offers and counters. Judge every offer by what it nets you. That is its price less the closing costs and repair credits it asks you to pay.

• A net of at least $580,900 is at or above the recommended list price.
• $540,155 to $580,899 is below the recommended list price. Counter toward the recommended list price, in smaller steps each round.
• Below $540,155 is below the evidence.

A credit lowers your net by its full amount. Where a buyer needs one, raising the price by the same amount keeps your net, within what the buyer’s loan and the appraisal allow.

All five are in Santa Rita Ranch South, this house’s own subdivision. In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

Scaling to 3,316 SF. The homes that sold vary in size relative to this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 216 Rieti Pkwy has 3,827 SF. Its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $630,209. Restated at this home’s size: $630,209 × 3,316 ÷ 3,827 = $546,060. The scaling line for 216 Rieti Pkwy is the difference, −$84,149.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones. Every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever its size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. Five sales are too few to measure reliably how price per SF changes with size, so ALEX measured it from 15,182 sales in the ABOR market: resales priced $600,000 to $1,000,000, closed since July 2023, holding age, lot, rooms and date of sale constant, and applies that correction to each sale. For 216 Rieti Pkwy the statistical size adjustment is +$50,942, so its total size adjustment is −$33,207. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.