ALEX · Executive Summary

103 Maria Court, Georgetown

Comparable-sales valuation · Listed Property Buyer Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Gary C. BlackburnPrepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated BrokerSummary revised October 9, 2026, 2:49 PM CDTReport version 14.269

ALEX AI Statistical Model

ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 2,104 SF using the size effect measured from these same sales. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale.

Traditional Arithmetic Model

The same five sales with the same adjustments, each scaled to this home’s size at its own price per SF and counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two rows differ.

What the two rows share. Both rows start from the same five sales and carry the same adjustments:

• the market trend from each sale’s date to today;
• the feature adjustments ALEX calculated;
• the changes and additions Diane made after comparing each sold home with this property;
• scaling to this home’s size at each sale’s own price per SF.

Where they differ. The statistical model makes two further corrections. First, it applies a size adjustment measured from these sales, because price per SF falls as homes get larger. Second, it gives each sale a weight based on how closely it matches this home, where the traditional row counts every sale equally. The “Size adjustment” and “Final valuation” tables below show both corrections sale by sale, and the detailed report sets out the full method.

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is lower than the traditional arithmetic figure. The difference is shown below in dollars and as a percentage of the traditional average.

The suggested offer spans the ALEX AI Statistical Model’s average and median. While the list-price box is ticked it is held at the asking price.

All four are net: what the house costs after the $8,000 credit, the contract price less the credit. How they are set. We looked at 392 similar homes that sold in Georgetown, $400k to $600k. About 1 in 6 sold further below their asking price than the lowest offer. About 1 in 6 sold above the highest. The valuation does not set the range. The highest is held at the asking price, the default. The evidence alone would reach $412,000 net.

Of similar homes that sold:

• 12%–18% went for the lowest offer or less.
• 97% went for the net adjusted value or less.
• 75%–82% went for the highest offer or less.

This is not the chance the seller accepts. The MLS records sales, not refused offers.

Move the price, not the credit. Because you are financing 100% with no down payment, the seller-paid closing costs help you close the VA purchase. Giving them up raises the cash you must bring to closing. If you need to offer more, raise the contract price and keep the full credit in place.

Every counter in the table below keeps the full $8,000 credit, and we recommend that any counter you make does the same. Each row shows three things. First, what the house effectively costs you: the contract price less the credit. Second, the cash you bring to closing. Third, the monthly payment on the loan terms above.

Each counter raises the contract price further above the valuation. If the Notice of Value comes in at the valuation, the difference is paid in cash or the contract can be terminated.

All five are in Sierra Vista, this house’s own subdivision. In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

Scaling to 2,104 SF. Every home that sold is smaller than this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 312 Susana Dr has 1,960 SF. Its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $419,446. Restated at this home’s size: $419,446 × 2,104 ÷ 1,960 = $450,262. The scaling line for 312 Susana Dr is the difference, +$30,816.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones. Every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever its size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. ALEX measured, from these five sales, how price per SF changes with size, and applies that correction to each sale. For 312 Susana Dr the statistical size adjustment is −$13,758, so its total size adjustment is +$17,058. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.