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Jarrell Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check for October
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-11-03
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $226,000
277 Louisa LN, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #7313914
Listed at $195,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,692 sq ft. Listed 14% below the ALEX valuation; 16% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 17% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187457195/277-Louisa-LN-Jarrell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $226,000 to $260,000
300 Sleep Hollow, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #1171766
Listed at $249,990, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,372 sq ft. Listed 9% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180225001/300-Sleep-Hollow-Jarrell-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $260,000 to $292,000
528 Old Western PASS, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #7409772
Listed at $270,779, 5 bed, 3 bath, 2,609 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 12% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185652847/528-Old-Western-PASS-Jarrell-TX
Upper quartile: $292,000 and up
144 Baby Calf Roping RD, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #3128268
Listed at $293,400, 6 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,349 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 6% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182521994/144-Baby-Calf-Roping-RD-Jarrell-TX
Key figures · Jarrell · October 2026
- 51 homes sold in Jarrell in October 2026 (down 3.8% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $247,400 (down 4.8% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $141.
- Median days on market: 63.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 95.4%.
- 333 homes for sale now, about 5.2 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What is the true cost of an entry-level home in Jarrell right now? For buyers looking at the bottom quartile of prices, the median sale price was $230,499 across 51 closed sales in October. This figure represents the most affordable tier of the local market, yet current financing costs significantly impact monthly payments.
ALEX Intelligence applied a payment-to-price affordability model using the median entry-level price and the prevailing mortgage rate of 7.24% from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey dated October 29, 2026. The data includes buydown scenarios where a 3-2-1 buydown costs $9,192 (3.72% of the median price) and a 2-1 buydown costs $4,668 (1.89% of the median price). These figures illustrate the financial tools available to offset the high interest rate environment for entry-level buyers.
The data shows that while the median price for entry-level homes has shifted compared to last year, the high interest rate environment remains the primary constraint on buying power. Buyers in this segment are effectively paying a premium for financing, which reduces the total home price they can qualify for compared to lower-rate periods. The current market activity indicates 51 closed sales in this tier, suggesting steady demand despite the elevated cost of borrowing.
This analysis relies strictly on observed transaction data and standard mortgage calculations. It does not account for property taxes, insurance, or homeowner association fees which vary by specific neighborhood. The figures provided are estimates based on the median entry-level price and current market rates, not individual appraisals or loan guarantees.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, October 2026, n=51
Cover photo: Jarrell City Hall by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










