ALEX · Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC – ALEX Companies

Hills Of Bear Creek

Manchaca, TX 78652
Resale homes · closed Nov 5 – Nov 4, 2026
Prepared for Buyers, sellers and agents
Prepared by ALEX Real Estate
Market Study · Resale Analysis
Version 2.4
November 5, 2026 · 3:52 PM CST
MARKET STUDY All analysis covers resale homes only. New construction appears once, in its own section. Click any dot on the map for that sale.
Resale sales, 365 days
13
single-family resale homes
Median net sale price
$469,063
average $467,251
Median net price per SF
$218
average $220
Median days on market
34 days
average 40 days
1. SummaryResale homes · 13 sales · November 5, 2025 – November 4, 2026

This study looks at the 13 resale homes sold in Hills Of Bear Creek in the 365 days to November 4, 2026. A full year is used because only 8 resale homes sold in the last 180 days. New construction is left out and shown on its own in section 7. The homes are compared four ways: by price, by living area, by year built and with or without a view. The first three are split into four equal groups (quartiles), each named by its range.

Each comparison has its own section (3–6) with everything about it in one place: the key differences, a table of every measure at a glance, the charts and the numbers.

2. Where the resale homes sold13 resale homes · colored by price range

Each dot is one resale home, colored by its price range. Use the buttons to show one price range at a time. Click a dot for that sale: address, close date, original and last list price, net sale price, living area, net sale per SF and days on market. Scroll or pinch to zoom.

Under $442K · 3 sales$442K–$464K · 3 sales$469K–$505K · 4 salesOver $505K · 3 sales
3. Quartiles by net sale priceResale homes · 13 sales · November 5, 2025 – November 4, 2026

Sales ranked by net sale price and cut into four equal groups. This is the usual way to read a market by price.

2026-11-05T15:52:08.483507 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 3 3 4 3 13 sales Sales per group Under $442K: 3 sales (23%) $442K–$464K: 3 sales (23%) $469K–$505K: 4 sales (31%) Over $505K: 3 sales (23%)
Bottom line: too few sales to test.

3.1 Key differences

The top group against the bottom group: no measure differs enough to rule out chance.

How to read this section. Each heading gives the finding. The gold box says whether the gap is real (✓, with its size) or could be chance (–). The section ends with its numbers; the tests are in section 8.3.

3.3 Net price per SF: described, not tested

2026-11-05T15:52:08.513180 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under $442K 3 sales $442K– $464K 3 sales $469K– $505K 4 sales Over $505K 3 sales $0 $100 $200 $216 $221 $216 $228 Net price per SF, average

The average is $228 per SF for homes over $505K and $216 per SF for homes under $442K. It does not move in a straight line; homes over $505K are highest. Defined in 8.1.2.

Not tested: too few sales.

3.4 Living area: described, not tested

2026-11-05T15:52:08.537106 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under $442K 3 sales $442K– $464K 3 sales $469K– $505K 4 sales Over $505K 3 sales 0 1,000 2,000 1,925 2,041 2,274 2,315 Living area (SF), average

The average is 2,315 SF for homes over $505K and 1,925 SF for homes under $442K. It rises step by step from the lowest range to the highest. Defined in 8.1.3.

Not tested: too few sales.

3.5 Year built: described, not tested

2026-11-05T15:52:08.563131 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under $442K 3 sales $442K– $464K 3 sales $469K– $505K 4 sales Over $505K 3 sales 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016 2019 2016 2018 Year built: median (dot) and middle half (bar)

The median is 2018 for homes over $505K and 2016 for homes under $442K. It does not move in a straight line; homes $442K–$464K are highest. Defined in 8.1.4.

Not tested: too few sales.

3.6 Days on market: described, not tested

2026-11-05T15:52:08.587913 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under $442K 3 sales $442K– $464K 3 sales $469K– $505K 4 sales Over $505K 3 sales 0 20 40 60 36 64 30 23 Days on market, median

The median is 23 days for homes over $505K and 36 days for homes under $442K. It does not move in a straight line; homes $442K–$464K are highest. Defined in 8.1.5.

Not tested: too few sales.

3.7 Discount from original list: described, not tested

2026-11-05T15:52:08.611459 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under $442K 3 sales $442K– $464K 3 sales $469K– $505K 4 sales Over $505K 3 sales 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.8% 4.5% 3.0% 4.8% Discount from original list, average

The average is 4.8% for homes over $505K and 5.8% for homes under $442K. It does not move in a straight line; homes under $442K are highest. Defined in 8.1.6.

Not tested: too few sales.

3.8 How often: price cut before sale, seller paid closing costs or repairs, has a view

2026-11-05T15:52:08.642979 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Price cut Seller paid costs or repairs Has a view 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 33 100 0 67 67 100 25 100 25 33 67 67 Under $442K $442K–$464K $469K–$505K Over $505K

Each bar is the share of homes in the group, in percent.

  • 33% of homes over $505K had a price cut before sale, against 33% of homes under $442K. Defined in 8.1.7.
  • 67% of homes over $505K had the seller pay closing costs or repairs, against 100% of homes under $442K. Defined in 8.1.8.
  • 67% of homes over $505K have a view, against 0% of homes under $442K. Defined in 8.1.9.
Price cut before sale: Not tested: too few sales.
Seller paid closing costs or repairs: Not tested: too few sales.
Has a view: Not tested: too few sales.

3.9 The numbers: price and size

Under $442K3 sales$442K–$464K3 sales$469K–$505K4 salesOver $505K3 salesAll13 sales
Net sale price average$411,083$450,450$487,041$513,833$467,251
Net price per SF average$216$221$216$228$220
Living area average1,9252,0412,2742,3152,149
Year built median20162019201620182017

3.10 The numbers: selling

Under $442K3 sales$442K–$464K3 sales$469K–$505K4 salesOver $505K3 salesAll13 sales
Days on market median3664302334
Discount from original list average5.8%4.5%3.0%4.8%4.4%
Price cut before sale33%67%25%33%38%
Seller paid closing costs or repairs100%67%100%67%85%
Has a view0%100%25%67%46%

Prices, price per SF, living area and discount are averages; days on market and year built are medians. The test behind each verdict is in 8.3.1.

4. Groups by living areaResale homes · 13 sales · November 5, 2025 – November 4, 2026

Sales ranked by living area and cut into four equal groups, from the smallest homes to the largest. Only 2 groups are shown: homes here share a few living area values, and no group may hold fewer than 3 sales.

2026-11-05T15:52:08.661907 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 5 8 13 sales Sales per group Under 2,074 SF: 5 sales (38%) Over 2,068 SF: 8 sales (62%)
Bottom line: no measure differs enough between the groups to rule out chance.

4.1 Key differences

The top group against the bottom group: no measure differs enough to rule out chance.

4.2 At a glance

Shaded rows are real differences; the darkest cell is the highest. Gray rows show no clear difference. Prices are averages; days on market and year built are medians.

Under 2,074 SFOver 2,068 SFReal difference?
Net sale price$443K$482Kunclear
Net price per SF$229 per SF$214 per SFunclear
Year built20192016unclear
Days on market8 days41 daysunclear
Discount from original list4.2%4.6%unclear
Price cut before sale20%50%unclear
Seller paid closing costs or repairs100%75%unclear
Has a view40%50%unclear

4.3 Net sale price: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.679486 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under 2,074 SF 5 sales Over 2,068 SF 8 sales $0K $200K $400K $443K $482K Net sale price, average

The average is $482K for homes over 2,068 SF and $443K for homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.1.

– No clear difference · could be chance

4.4 Net price per SF: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.699456 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under 2,074 SF 5 sales Over 2,068 SF 8 sales $0 $100 $200 $229 $214 Net price per SF, average

The average is $214 per SF for homes over 2,068 SF and $229 per SF for homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.2.

– No clear difference · could be chance

4.5 Year built: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.720254 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under 2,074 SF 5 sales Over 2,068 SF 8 sales 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2019 2016 Year built: median (dot) and middle half (bar)

The median is 2016 for homes over 2,068 SF and 2019 for homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.4.

– No clear difference · could be chance

4.6 Days on market: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.740592 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under 2,074 SF 5 sales Over 2,068 SF 8 sales 0 10 20 30 40 8 41 Days on market, median

The median is 41 days for homes over 2,068 SF and 8 days for homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.5.

– No clear difference · could be chance

4.7 Discount from original list: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.761459 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Under 2,074 SF 5 sales Over 2,068 SF 8 sales 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.6% Discount from original list, average

The average is 4.6% for homes over 2,068 SF and 4.2% for homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.6.

– No clear difference · could be chance

4.8 How often: price cut before sale, seller paid closing costs or repairs, has a view

2026-11-05T15:52:08.781994 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Price cut Seller paid costs or repairs Has a view 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 20 100 40 50 75 50 Under 2,074 SF Over 2,068 SF

Each bar is the share of homes in the group, in percent.

  • 50% of homes over 2,068 SF had a price cut before sale, against 20% of homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.7.
  • 75% of homes over 2,068 SF had the seller pay closing costs or repairs, against 100% of homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.8.
  • 50% of homes over 2,068 SF have a view, against 40% of homes under 2,074 SF. Defined in 8.1.9.
Price cut before sale: – No clear difference · could be chance
Seller paid closing costs or repairs: – No clear difference · could be chance
Has a view: – No clear difference · could be chance

4.9 The numbers: price and size

Under 2,074 SF5 salesOver 2,068 SF8 salesAll13 salesReal difference?
Net sale price average$443,250$482,252$467,251unclear
Net price per SF average$229$214$220unclear
Living area average1,9422,2792,149by design
Year built median201920162017unclear

4.10 The numbers: selling

Under 2,074 SF5 salesOver 2,068 SF8 salesAll13 salesReal difference?
Days on market median84134unclear
Discount from original list average4.2%4.6%4.4%unclear
Price cut before sale20%50%38%unclear
Seller paid closing costs or repairs100%75%85%unclear
Has a view40%50%46%unclear

Prices, price per SF, living area and discount are averages; days on market and year built are medians. The test behind each verdict is in 8.3.2.

5. Groups by year builtResale homes · 13 sales · November 5, 2025 – November 4, 2026

Sales ranked by year built and cut into four groups, from the oldest to the newest. Homes built in the same year always stay in the same group, so group sizes can differ a little. Only 2 groups are shown: homes here share a few year built values, and no group may hold fewer than 3 sales.

2026-11-05T15:52:08.797909 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 6 7 13 sales Sales per group Before 2017: 6 sales (46%) After 2016: 7 sales (54%)
Bottom line: no measure differs enough between the groups to rule out chance.

5.1 Key differences

The top group against the bottom group: no measure differs enough to rule out chance.

5.2 At a glance

Shaded rows are real differences; the darkest cell is the highest. Gray rows show no clear difference. Prices are averages; days on market and year built are medians.

Before 2017After 2016Real difference?
Net sale price$466K$468Kunclear
Net price per SF$220 per SF$220 per SFunclear
Living area2,142 SF2,155 SFunclear
Days on market30 days48 daysunclear
Discount from original list3.0%5.6%unclear
Price cut before sale17%57%unclear
Seller paid closing costs or repairs100%71%unclear
Has a view17%71%unclear

5.3 Net sale price: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.815243 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Before 2017 6 sales After 2016 7 sales $0K $200K $400K $466K $468K Net sale price, average

The average is $468K for homes built after 2016 and $466K for homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.1.

– No clear difference · could be chance

5.4 Net price per SF: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.832903 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Before 2017 6 sales After 2016 7 sales $0 $100 $200 $220 $220 Net price per SF, average

The average is $220 per SF for homes built after 2016 and $220 per SF for homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.2.

– No clear difference · could be chance

5.5 Living area: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.850479 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Before 2017 6 sales After 2016 7 sales 0 1,000 2,000 2,142 2,155 Living area (SF), average

The average is 2,155 SF for homes built after 2016 and 2,142 SF for homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.3.

– No clear difference · could be chance

5.6 Days on market: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.868735 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Before 2017 6 sales After 2016 7 sales 0 20 40 30 48 Days on market, median

The median is 48 days for homes built after 2016 and 30 days for homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.5.

– No clear difference · could be chance

5.7 Discount from original list: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.886810 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Before 2017 6 sales After 2016 7 sales 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.6% Discount from original list, average

The average is 5.6% for homes built after 2016 and 3.0% for homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.6.

– No clear difference · could be chance

5.8 How often: price cut before sale, seller paid closing costs or repairs, has a view

2026-11-05T15:52:08.908719 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Price cut Seller paid costs or repairs Has a view 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 17 100 17 57 71 71 Before 2017 After 2016

Each bar is the share of homes in the group, in percent.

  • 57% of homes built after 2016 had a price cut before sale, against 17% of homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.7.
  • 71% of homes built after 2016 had the seller pay closing costs or repairs, against 100% of homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.8.
  • 71% of homes built after 2016 have a view, against 17% of homes built before 2017. Defined in 8.1.9.
Price cut before sale: – No clear difference · could be chance
Seller paid closing costs or repairs: – No clear difference · could be chance
Has a view: – No clear difference · could be chance

5.9 The numbers: price and size

Before 20176 salesAfter 20167 salesAll13 salesReal difference?
Net sale price average$465,902$468,407$467,251unclear
Net price per SF average$220$220$220unclear
Living area average2,1422,1552,149unclear
Year built median201620192017by design

5.10 The numbers: selling

Before 20176 salesAfter 20167 salesAll13 salesReal difference?
Days on market median304834unclear
Discount from original list average3.0%5.6%4.4%unclear
Price cut before sale17%57%38%unclear
Seller paid closing costs or repairs100%71%85%unclear
Has a view17%71%46%unclear

Prices, price per SF, living area and discount are averages; days on market and year built are medians. The test behind each verdict is in 8.3.3.

6. View and no viewResale homes · 13 sales · November 5, 2025 – November 4, 2026

Sales where the MLS lists a view (greenbelt or park, trees, golf course, hill country, water and similar) against those listing none or only the neighborhood.

2026-11-05T15:52:08.926407 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 6 7 13 sales Sales per group View: 6 sales (46%) No view: 7 sales (54%)
Bottom line: no measure differs enough between the groups to rule out chance.

6.1 Key differences

The top group against the bottom group: no measure differs enough to rule out chance.

6.2 At a glance

Shaded rows are real differences; the darkest cell is the highest. Gray rows show no clear difference. Prices are averages; days on market and year built are medians.

ViewNo viewReal difference?
Net sale price$481K$455Kunclear
Net price per SF$224 per SF$216 per SFunclear
Living area2,178 SF2,125 SFunclear
Year built20192016unclear
Days on market26 days34 daysunclear
Discount from original list3.4%5.3%unclear
Price cut before sale50%29%unclear
Seller paid closing costs or repairs83%86%unclear

6.3 Net sale price: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.943559 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ View 6 sales No view 7 sales $0K $200K $400K $481K $455K Net sale price, average

The average is $481K for homes with a view and $455K for homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.1.

– No clear difference · could be chance

6.4 Net price per SF: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.962106 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ View 6 sales No view 7 sales $0 $100 $200 $224 $216 Net price per SF, average

The average is $224 per SF for homes with a view and $216 per SF for homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.2.

– No clear difference · could be chance

6.5 Living area: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:08.982111 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ View 6 sales No view 7 sales 0 1,000 2,000 2,178 2,125 Living area (SF), average

The average is 2,178 SF for homes with a view and 2,125 SF for homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.3.

– No clear difference · could be chance

6.6 Year built: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:09.001760 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ View 6 sales No view 7 sales 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2016 Year built: median (dot) and middle half (bar)

The median is 2019 for homes with a view and 2016 for homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.4.

– No clear difference · could be chance

6.7 Days on market: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:09.021408 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ View 6 sales No view 7 sales 0 10 20 30 40 26 34 Days on market, median

The median is 26 days for homes with a view and 34 days for homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.5.

– No clear difference · could be chance

6.8 Discount from original list: no clear difference

2026-11-05T15:52:09.041702 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ View 6 sales No view 7 sales 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.4% 5.3% Discount from original list, average

The average is 3.4% for homes with a view and 5.3% for homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.6.

– No clear difference · could be chance

6.9 How often: price cut before sale, seller paid closing costs or repairs

2026-11-05T15:52:09.087206 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ Price cut Seller paid costs or repairs 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 50 83 29 86 View No view

Each bar is the share of homes in the group, in percent.

  • 50% of homes with a view had a price cut before sale, against 29% of homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.7.
  • 83% of homes with a view had the seller pay closing costs or repairs, against 86% of homes without a view. Defined in 8.1.8.
Price cut before sale: – No clear difference · could be chance
Seller paid closing costs or repairs: – No clear difference · could be chance

6.10 The numbers: price and size

View6 salesNo view7 salesAll13 salesReal difference?
Net sale price average$481,308$455,202$467,251unclear
Net price per SF average$224$216$220unclear
Living area average2,1782,1252,149unclear
Year built median201920162017unclear

6.11 The numbers: selling

View6 salesNo view7 salesAll13 salesReal difference?
Days on market median263434unclear
Discount from original list average3.4%5.3%4.4%unclear
Price cut before sale50%29%38%unclear
Seller paid closing costs or repairs83%86%85%unclear

Prices, price per SF, living area and discount are averages; days on market and year built are medians. The test behind each verdict is in 8.3.4.

7. New constructionBasic statistics · 0 sales · November 5, 2025 – November 4, 2026

Homes sold new by the builder in the same 365 days. They are left out of every other section and shown here as basic figures only: 0 sales, no groups, no tests.

Note: these are only the new-construction sales reported in ABOR MLS. Builders often sell homes without listing them in the MLS, so these figures do not necessarily represent all new-construction sales in Hills Of Bear Creek.

No new-construction sales were reported in ABOR MLS in this window.

Same definitions as the rest of the study (section 8). New construction = NewConstructionYN true, or PropertyCondition “New Construction” or “Under Construction”.

8. AppendixMeasures, methods and tests

Each measure and method three ways: in plain words, as statistics, and with the data from this study.

8.1 Measures

8.1.1 Net sale price

In simple terms
What the seller actually kept: the closing price, less money the seller gave back to the buyer for closing costs or repairs. It is the truest price for comparing homes.
Statistically
Net = ClosePrice − ACTRIS_BuyersClsgCostPdbySell − ACTRIS_RepairsAmount (a blank counts as $0). Summarized by the arithmetic mean in the slices.
The data
13 resale sales. Average $467,251; median $469,063; standard deviation $41,210; middle half (25th–75th percentile) $441,850–$505,000; lowest $386,000, highest $518,500. 11 sales had a seller payment; their median payment was $6,500.

8.1.2 Net price per SF

In simple terms
Net sale price divided by the heated and cooled square feet. It puts homes of different sizes on the same footing: did buyers pay more for each square foot, not just for more square feet?
Statistically
psf = Net ÷ LivingArea, per sale; summarized by the mean of the per-sale ratios.
The data
13 resale sales. Average $220; median $218; standard deviation $26; middle half (25th–75th percentile) $203–$235; lowest $181, highest $265.

8.1.3 Living area

In simple terms
The heated and cooled space, as listed in the MLS. Garages and porches are not counted.
Statistically
RESO LivingArea, in square feet. Sales under 400 SF are treated as entry errors and left out.
The data
13 resale sales. Average 2,149; median 2,074; standard deviation 295; middle half (25th–75th percentile) 2,018–2,150; lowest 1,690, highest 2,837.

8.1.4 Year built

In simple terms
The year the home was finished, as listed in the MLS. It shows whether a group leans to older or newer phases of the community.
Statistically
RESO YearBuilt; summarized by the median, with the 25th–75th percentile (middle half) on the charts.
The data
13 resale sales. Average 2017; median 2017; standard deviation 2; middle half (25th–75th percentile) 2016–2019; lowest 2015, highest 2021.

8.1.5 Days on market

In simple terms
How many days the home was on the market before the buyer's offer was accepted, counting any earlier listing periods (relists). This is the days on market agents and clients quote.
Statistically
CDOM = max(CumulativeDaysOnMarket, DaysOnMarket, PurchaseContractDate − ListingContractDate). The MLS counter can freeze at a price change, so the contract-date gap is a floor. Summarized by the median, because a few homes that sat for months pull an average up.
The data
13 resale sales. Average 40; median 34; standard deviation 36; middle half (25th–75th percentile) 8–57; lowest 1, highest 116. 0 sales went under contract on their listing date (0 days).

8.1.6 Discount from original list

In simple terms
How far below the first asking price the home sold, after seller payments. It measures how much negotiating room sellers gave up. A negative figure means the home sold above its first asking price.
Statistically
Discount % = (OriginalListPrice − Net) ÷ OriginalListPrice × 100, per sale; summarized by the mean.
The data
13 resale sales. Average 4.4%; median 4.3%; standard deviation 3.4%; middle half (25th–75th percentile) 1.9%–6.7%; lowest −1.0%, highest 11.3%. 1 sales closed above their first asking price.

8.1.7 Price cut before sale

In simple terms
The asking price was lowered at least once before the home went under contract.
Statistically
Indicator: ListPrice at close < OriginalListPrice. Reported as the share of sales (%).
The data
5 of 13 resale sales (38.5%).

8.1.8 Seller paid closing costs or repairs

In simple terms
The seller paid some of the buyer's closing costs or repairs.
Statistically
Indicator: ACTRIS_BuyersClsgCostPdbySell + ACTRIS_RepairsAmount > 0. Reported as the share of sales (%).
The data
11 of 13 resale sales (84.6%).

8.1.9 Has a view

In simple terms
The MLS says the home looks over something: a greenbelt or park, trees, golf course, hill country, water and similar.
Statistically
View = the View field holds any entry other than “None”, “Neighborhood” or “See Remarks”. No view = only “None” and/or “Neighborhood”. A record whose only entry is “See Remarks” cannot be classified and is left out of the view slice.
The data
6 sales with a view, 7 without, 0 unclassified. Most common View entries: Park/Greenbelt 5, None 5, Neighborhood 5, Trees/Woods 4.

8.2 Methods

8.2.1 Data source

In simple terms
Every figure comes from the Austin Board of REALTORS® MLS, read live by ALEX. No figure is estimated or typed in.
Statistically
ABOR MLS via secure APIs, read from ALEX's copy of the MLS (refreshed every 15 minutes; this pull as of 2026-11-05 21:45 UTC), every field. Filter: StandardStatus = Closed, PropertyType = Residential, City = Manchaca, SubdivisionName contains any of “hills of bear creek” (case-insensitive). A record is kept when its subdivision name belongs to the Hills Of Bear Creek family, the same rule comparable sales use.
The data
Pulled November 5, 2026: 13 closed Hills Of Bear Creek records over the prior year, in ZIP 78652. 5 subdivision spellings kept: Hills of Bear Creek (5); Hills Of Bear Creek Sec 3 (4); Hills Of Bear Creek Sec 1 (2); Hills Of Bear Creek Sec 2 The (1); Hills Of Bear Creek (1). Names found by the search but not part of Hills Of Bear Creek, left out: Hills of Bear Creek, RING TRACT PHS 2 (1).

8.2.2 Study window

In simple terms
The most recent 365 days of closed sales: recent enough to describe today's market, long enough to give each group plenty of sales. The usual window is 180 days; it holds only 8 resale sales here (under 80), so the full year is used.
Statistically
CloseDate from November 5, 2025 to November 4, 2026 inclusive.
The data
13 single-family sales in the window: 13 resale, 0 new construction.

8.2.3 Resale and new construction

In simple terms
A resale home was previously owned. New construction is sold by the builder and behaves differently, so it is kept out of every analysis and reported once on its own.
Statistically
New construction = NewConstructionYN true, or PropertyCondition contains “New Construction” or “Under Construction”. Everything else is resale.
The data
13 resale; 0 new construction.

8.2.4 Sales left out

In simple terms
A few records cannot be used as entered and are left out before any analysis.
Statistically
Excluded: PropertySubType other than Single Family Residence; no OriginalListPrice; LivingArea under 400 SF; seller payments above 10% of ClosePrice (treated as entry errors).
The data
None in this window.

8.2.5 Quartiles and groups

In simple terms
Sales lined up from lowest to highest and cut into four groups of about equal size. Each group is named by its range, for example “Under $442K”.
Statistically
Sort by the slicing variable; cut k sits at round(nk/4), k = 1…3. A cut that would split tied values moves to the nearer edge of the tie. A group under 3 sales merges into its smaller neighbor. Range names use the next group's lowest value (“Under”) and the previous group's highest value (“Over”/“After”).
The data
Quartiles by net sale price: Under $442K: $386,000–$428,000 (3 sales); $442K–$464K: $441,850–$464,500 (3 sales); $469K–$505K: $469,063–$505,000 (4 sales); Over $505K: $510,000–$518,500 (3 sales)
Groups by living area: Under 2,074 SF: 1,690–2,068 SF (5 sales); Over 2,068 SF: 2,074–2,837 SF (8 sales)
Groups by year built: Before 2017: 2015–2016 (6 sales); After 2016: 2017–2021 (7 sales)
View and no view: View: MLS lists a view (6 sales); No view: None or Neighborhood (7 sales)

8.2.6 Average and median

In simple terms
The average adds the values and divides by how many; one very expensive home can pull it up. The median is the middle value, with half above and half below.
Statistically
Mean x̄ = (1/n) Σ xᵢ; median = 50th percentile. Price, price per SF, living area and discount use the mean; days on market and year built use the median (skewed or whole-year values).
The data
Net sale price: average $467,251, median $469,063. Days on market: average 40, median 34: the average is pulled up by a few long listings.

8.2.7 Kruskal–Wallis test

In simple terms
Checks whether a measure really differs across the four groups of a slice. It uses each sale's rank, not its value, so a few extreme sales cannot drive the answer.
Statistically
H = [12/(n(n+1))] Σ Rⱼ²/nⱼ − 3(n+1), compared with χ² on k − 1 degrees of freedom (Kruskal & Wallis, 1952). Effect size ε² = H/(n − 1): ≥ .01 small, ≥ .06 medium, ≥ .14 large (Tomczak & Tomczak, 2014). A slice is tested only when every group has at least 5 sales; smaller groups are described, not tested.
The data
Run on every measure in sections 3–5; each result is in 8.3.

8.2.8 Mann–Whitney U test

In simple terms
The same check when there are only two groups: view against no view.
Statistically
Two-sided U test (Mann & Whitney, 1947). Effect size = rank-biserial correlation |1 − 2U/(n₁n₂)|: ≥ .10 small, ≥ .30 medium, ≥ .50 large (Kerby, 2014; Cohen, 1988).
The data
Run on every measure in section 6; results in 8.3.

8.2.9 Chi-square test

In simple terms
Checks whether a yes/no share (price cut, seller payment, view) differs between groups more than chance would.
Statistically
Pearson χ² on the 2 × k table of counts, no continuity correction (Pearson, 1900). Effect size Cramér's V = √(χ²/n): ≥ .10 small, ≥ .30 medium, ≥ .50 large (Cramér, 1946).
The data
Run on the three shares in every slice; results in 8.3.

8.2.10 Real difference (significance)

In simple terms
“Real difference” means a gap this large would be very unlikely if the groups were really alike. Because many measures are checked in each slice, the bar is set higher than usual.
Statistically
Significant when p < 0.05 ÷ m, where m is the number of measures tested in that slice (Bonferroni; Dunn, 1961). The slicing variable itself differs by design and is not tested.
The data
Groups by living area: m = 8, threshold p < 0.0063; Groups by year built: m = 8, threshold p < 0.0063; View and no view: m = 8, threshold p < 0.0063

8.2.11 Size of a difference

In simple terms
A difference can be real but small. The size word (small, medium, large) says how much the groups pull apart.
Statistically
ε² for Kruskal–Wallis, rank-biserial r for Mann–Whitney, Cramér's V for chi-square, with the thresholds above; below the small threshold the size is “negligible”.
The data
0 real differences across the four slices; sizes are listed in 8.3.

8.2.12 Rounding in the text

In simple terms
Headings and sentences round figures so they read easily; the tables at the end of each section give them in full.
Statistically
Prices in headings round to the nearest $1K; price per SF and days on market to the nearest whole number; living area to the nearest 10 SF; shares and percentage gaps to whole percents.
The data
Days on market is always shown in days.

8.3 Test results

Every test behind every gold box. Statistic, degrees of freedom (df), p-value, the threshold it must beat, and the size of the difference.

8.3.1 Quartiles by net sale price

Too few sales in a group to test.

8.3.2 Groups by living area

MeasureTestStatisticdfp-valueThresholdReal difference?Effect sizeSize
Net sale priceMann–Whitney UU = 10.00—0.1709p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.500large
Net price per SFMann–Whitney UU = 27.00—0.3543p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.350medium
Year builtMann–Whitney UU = 29.00—0.2038p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.450medium
Days on marketMann–Whitney UU = 13.00—0.3543p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.350medium
Discount from original listMann–Whitney UU = 16.00—0.6216p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.200small
Price cut before saleChi-squareχ² = 1.1710.2794p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.300medium
Seller paid closing costs or repairsChi-squareχ² = 1.4810.2242p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.337medium
Has a viewChi-squareχ² = 0.1210.7249p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.098negligible

8.3.3 Groups by year built

MeasureTestStatisticdfp-valueThresholdReal difference?Effect sizeSize
Net sale priceMann–Whitney UU = 18.00—0.7308p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.143small
Net price per SFMann–Whitney UU = 21.00—1.0000p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.000negligible
Living areaMann–Whitney UU = 25.00—0.6146p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.190small
Days on marketMann–Whitney UU = 16.00—0.5338p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.238small
Discount from original listMann–Whitney UU = 13.00—0.2949p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.381medium
Price cut before saleChi-squareχ² = 2.2410.1348p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.415medium
Seller paid closing costs or repairsChi-squareχ² = 2.0310.1546p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.395medium
Has a viewChi-squareχ² = 3.9010.0483p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.548large

8.3.4 View and no view

MeasureTestStatisticdfp-valueThresholdReal difference?Effect sizeSize
Net sale priceMann–Whitney UU = 29.00—0.2949p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.381medium
Net price per SFMann–Whitney UU = 23.00—0.8357p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.095negligible
Living areaMann–Whitney UU = 20.00—0.9427p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.048negligible
Year builtMann–Whitney UU = 31.50—0.1446p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.500large
Days on marketMann–Whitney UU = 18.00—0.7308p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.143small
Discount from original listMann–Whitney UU = 15.00—0.4452p < 0.0063Unclearrank-biserial r = 0.286small
Price cut before saleChi-squareχ² = 0.6310.4285p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.220small
Seller paid closing costs or repairsChi-squareχ² = 0.0110.9056p < 0.0063UnclearCramér’s V = 0.033negligible

8.4 Data notes

Left out of the analysis: 0 new-construction sales (basic statistics only, section 7); nothing else. Statistics: Python, NumPy 2.5.3, SciPy 1.18.1.

8.5 References

  1. Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (2nd ed.). Erlbaum.
  2. Cramér, H. (1946). Mathematical Methods of Statistics. Princeton University Press.
  3. Dunn, O. J. (1961). Multiple comparisons among means. JASA, 56(293), 52–64.
  4. Kerby, D. S. (2014). The simple difference formula: an approach to teaching nonparametric correlation. Comprehensive Psychology, 3, 11.IT.3.1.
  5. Kruskal, W. H., & Wallis, W. A. (1952). Use of ranks in one-criterion variance analysis. JASA, 47(260), 583–621.
  6. Mann, H. B., & Whitney, D. R. (1947). On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 18(1), 50–60.
  7. Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302), 157–175.
  8. Tomczak, M., & Tomczak, E. (2014). The need to report effect size estimates revisited. Trends in Sport Sciences, 21(1), 19–25.

This is a market study of closed sales, not an appraisal or an opinion of value for any home. The analysis covers 13 closed MLS resale sales; the 0 new-construction sales appear only in their own section, as basic statistics. Sale and listing data: ABOR MLS via secure APIs, pulled November 5, 2026. Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors. ALEX Companies · Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission · Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC (ALEX Real Estate), #565194-BB · Diane Hart Alexander, Designated Broker, #574877-B.