Marble Falls Market Heat Score: A Data-Driven View
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-18
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $291,000
116 Standing Rock LN, Marble Falls TX 78654 · MLS #3768604
Listed at $255,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,440 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 9% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182590716/116-Standing-Rock-LN-Marble-Falls-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $291,000 to $340,000
413 Hailstone LN, Marble Falls TX 78654 · MLS #7965839
Listed at $304,499, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,060 sq ft. Listed 3% below the ALEX valuation.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189698009/413-Hailstone-LN-Marble-Falls-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $340,000 to $506,000
1403 Sunset DR, Marble Falls TX 78654 · MLS #4107322
Listed at $375,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,696 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 3% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189342944/1403-Sunset-DR-Marble-Falls-TX
Upper quartile: $506,000 and up
2500 County Road 403, Marble Falls TX 78654 · MLS #1397499
Listed at $1,036,000, 4 bed, 4 bath, 3,317 sq ft. Listed 26% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 20% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177348491/2500-County-Road-403-Marble-Falls-TX
Key figures · Marble Falls · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 97 homes sold in Marble Falls in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (down 3.0% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $325,395 (down 21.7% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $177.
- Median days on market: 60.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.7%.
- 124 homes for sale now, about 7.4 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does a market heat score actually tell a buyer or seller in Marble Falls? ALEX Intelligence calculated a composite index on a scale of 0 to 100 by weighing four key metrics: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions. This score reflects the balance between supply and demand over the rolling six-month period ending September 30, 2026.
The data shows a market in transition. Median days on market dropped to 60 days from 84 days in the prior six-month window, a 28.6% improvement indicating faster movement. However, the median close price of $325,395 remains 21.7% below the same period last year, and 94.8% of homes sold for less than their original list price. With 7.44 months of inventory currently active, supply continues to outpace demand, keeping the market in a buyer-favorable zone despite the speedier sales pace.
ALEX Intelligence applied a weighted formula where faster sales and higher sale ratios increase the score, while high inventory and frequent price cuts decrease it. The resulting score indicates a balanced-to-cool environment where buyers have leverage but must act on well-priced properties. This analysis is based on 97 closed sales and does not predict future market direction.
https://alex.realestate/market-data/marble-falls
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker.
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al.
Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB
Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733
Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456
[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951
Source data: Unlock MLS rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=97
Cover photo: Marble Falls from U.S. 281 by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










