Elgin Market Heat Score: What the Data Says in October

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 13317 PAINTED NIGHT RD, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #4509276 · Listed by Keller Williams City-View. ALEX valuation $254,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $250,000 13317 PAINTED NIGHT RD, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #4509276 Listed at $214,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,600 sq ft. Listed 15% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188534346/13317-PAINTED-NIGHT-RD-Elgin-TX Lower-middle quartile: $250,000 to $285,000 14513 Sage Bloom LN, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #1375497 Listed at $251,201, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,605 sq ft. Listed 13% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 13% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186516388/14513-Sage-Bloom-LN-Elgin-TX Upper-middle quartile: $285,000 to $323,000 148 Hidalgo LN, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #2238156 Listed at $299,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,399 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 24% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183283220/148-Hidalgo-LN-Elgin-TX Upper quartile: $323,000 and up 146 Buena Fortuna RD, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #7628121 Listed at $399,500, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,750 sq ft. Listed 9% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1170144507/146-Buena-Fortuna-RD-Elgin-TX

Key figures · Elgin · September 2026

49 homes sold in Elgin in September 2026 (up 14.0% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $281,999 (down 8.8% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $152.

Median days on market: 61.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 95.4%.

295 homes for sale now, about 4.9 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Is the Elgin housing market cooling or simply stabilizing? The ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score for Elgin in September 2026 indicates a balanced market leaning slightly toward buyers. This composite index weighs four key factors: median days on market, list-to-sale price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions. In September, 49 homes closed with a median price of $281,999, down 8.8% from the same month last year when the median was $309,341. The market is moving faster than a year ago, with median days on market dropping to 61 days from 75 days in September 2025. However, affordability remains a challenge as 79.6% of homes sold below their original list price, compared to 79.1% last year. Inventory sits at 4.94 months, suggesting a shift away from the tight supply seen in previous years. While the median close-to-original list ratio improved slightly to 95.4%, the overall trend shows sellers are still negotiating more concessions than before. The ALEX Intelligence model integrates these metrics to provide a single gauge of market temperature, helping buyers and sellers understand where they stand without relying on speculation. This score reflects current conditions based on 49 closed sales in September 2026. It does not predict future price movements but offers a data-driven snapshot of the local supply and demand dynamics as of this month. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Partner, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951