San Marcos New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap

San Marcos faced a widening supply gap in August as 106 new homes hit the market while only 55 properties successfully closed. This imbalance between fresh inventory and completed sales defines the current local dynamic. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the flow of listings against closings to quantify this shift. The ratio of new listings to closed sales stood at nearly two to one during August. While 106 sellers entered the market, only 55 transactions finalized, a figure down from the 70 closings recorded in July. This divergence suggests that incoming supply is outpacing absorption rates, even as prices rose 17.8% month-over-month to a median of $328,119 across those 55 sales. Historical context shows this pattern fluctuates seasonally. Over the trailing 24 months, monthly closings have ranged from 47 in November 2025 to 93 in June 2026. In August specifically, the volume of new listings was significantly higher than the previous year's 48, while closed sales remained slightly below last year's 60. This indicates a temporary surge in seller activity that has not yet translated into proportional buyer demand. The dual-axis trend reveals a classic supply-side expansion where inventory accumulates faster than it moves. With 55 homes sold against 106 new entries, the net change in available stock increased by 51 units for the month. This gap is critical for buyers and sellers to monitor as it influences future price stability and time on market. The data reflects a market where listing activity is robust but closing velocity has slowed relative to the influx of new properties. This week's 5 best values under $1,000,000, ranked by the ALEX deal score: 1. 131 Spiny Lizard LN, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #2939836 Listed at $215,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,534 sq ft. Listed 25% below the ALEX valuation; 23% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 28% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183264770/131-Spiny-Lizard-LN-San-Marcos-TX 2. 813 Cardenas ST, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #4185270 Listed at $284,990, 4 bed, 3 bath, 1,924 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 19% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1169031399/813-Cardenas-ST-San-Marcos-TX 3. 202 Mossycup DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #3656278 Listed at $229,800, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,740 sq ft. Listed 15% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 18% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184525646/202-Mossycup-DR-San-Marcos-TX 4. 133 Navidad River DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #3061097 Listed at $238,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,193 sq ft. Listed 18% below the ALEX valuation; 15% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 21% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180726902/133-Navidad-River-DR-San-Marcos-TX 5. 107 Friendship Oak DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #4374372 Listed at $199,999, 2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,262 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 13% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 17% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1178394103/107-Friendship-Oak-DR-San-Marcos-TX Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. View and join any or all of our communities — AI, quantum, and real estate: https://alex-companies.com/reports/linkedin-groups If there's an AI, quantum, or real estate community you'd like to see us convene, tell us — this portfolio grows by request. MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951