ALEX Intelligence · ABOR · Oct 2, 2026

ABOR Blog Rotation and Subdivision Activity

Contents: blog topic rotation · 42 blog pages · buydown costs · Best Values · top 20 subdivisions by activity
Blog source: abor_blog/bin/write_posts.py (code that runs) and ALEX_blog_rotation_prompt.md · Publish counts from published.json, through Oct 2, 2026 · Verified Oct 2, 2026

Status summary

Status	Topics	Meaning
Live	12	Eligible on every page every day
Conditional	7	Eligible only when that page's data clears the threshold
Off	11	Never assigned; data or model not built
Paused	1	Removed by policy until the trend model exists
Total	31	—

Rotation rule

Formula	`topic = ((day−1) + (page#−1) + (month−1)) mod 31 + 1`
Cadence	One post per page per day · cron 9:10 AM (`run_pipeline.sh`)
Skip rule	Rotation topic not eligible or already run this month → next eligible topic in sequence
Shared topics	Pages 31 apart (1 & 32 … 11 & 42) get the same topic on the same day
Snapshot fallback	Data-only snapshot does not use up the topic; it retries next day
Mondays	Deal of the Week module added by the page, not the post
Excluded	Rental and lease topics

The 31 topics

#	Title ({Page} = page name)	Data used	AI / BI method	Min. sample	Status	Gate / reason	CTA	Published
1	{Page} Monthly Market Pulse	Closed, active, pending counts; median price	KPI dashboard, MoM and YoY change	n ≥ 10 closed	Live	—	Seller	1
2	Top 5 Fastest-Selling Subdivisions in {Page}	DOM by subdivision	Ranked median days on market	5 subdivs × 5 sales	Conditional	Needs ≥ 3 subdivisions with ≥ 5 sales	Info	1
3	List-to-Sale Price Ratio Explained	Original list, final list, close price	Ratio trend with price-tier breakdown	n ≥ 10	Live	—	Seller	2
4	Top 5 Subdivisions with the Most Price Cuts	Price change history	% of listings reduced, average cut size	5 subdivs × 5 listings	Conditional	Needs ≥ 3 subdivisions with ≥ 5 sales	Seller	2
5	Months of Inventory: Buyer's or Seller's Market?	Actives ÷ trailing monthly closings	Buyer / balanced / seller gauge	n ≥ 10 closed	Live	—	Buyer	1
6	Top 5 Subdivisions by Price per Sq Ft	Close price, living area	Median $/sq ft ranking	5 subdivs × 5 sales	Conditional	Needs ≥ 3 subdivisions with ≥ 5 sales	Seller	1
7	New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap	New listing and closed counts	Dual-axis supply/demand trend	n ≥ 10 each	Live	—	Buyer	4
8	Price trend model	Returns when the ALEX trend model is built	—	—	Paused	Paused until the trend model exists	Info	—
9	Top 5 Best-Value Subdivisions	Model value vs. median sale price	Hedonic model residuals	5 subdivs × 5 sales	Off	Model values not wired in	Seller	—
10	Top 5 New Neighborhoods	New-construction closings, built within 2 yrs	New-construction volume ranking	5 subdivs × 5 sales	Conditional	Needs ≥ 3 subdivisions with ≥ 5 sales	Buyer	3
11	Builder Incentives and Concessions Watch	Concessions field, public remarks	NLP extraction of incentive language	n ≥ 10 new-construction	Off	NLP extraction not built	Info	—
12	Top 5 Features That Add the Most Value	Pool, lot, garage, beds, baths, age	Hedonic regression, $ per feature	n ≥ 200 county sales	Off	Hedonic fit not built	Seller	—
13	Home Size Trends: Bigger or Smaller?	Living area, beds, baths	Rolling trend with size-band shift	n ≥ 10	Live	—	Buyer	7
14	Expired and Withdrawn Listings: Lessons Learned	Expired / withdrawn status	Pattern comparison vs. sold	n ≥ 10 expired/withdrawn	Off	Expired/withdrawn not in export	Seller	—
15	Seasonality: The Best Month to List in {Page}	Multi-year closed data	Seasonal decomposition	24 months	Live	—	Info	6
16	Top 5 Luxury Subdivisions	Top 10% price tier	Luxury closed-volume ranking	5 subdivs × 3 sales	Conditional	Needs ≥ 3 subdivisions with ≥ 5 sales	Seller	1
17	Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check	Bottom price quartile, current rate	Payment-to-price affordability index	n ≥ 10	Live	Rate from FRED MORTGAGE30US, refreshed each run	Buyer	—
18	Mortgage Rate Impact on Buying Power	Median price, current rate (dated, sourced), buydowns	Payment at rate ± 1%; 3/2/1 and 2/1 buydown cost	Rate supplied	Live	Rate from FRED MORTGAGE30US, refreshed each run	Buyer	—
19	Cash vs. Financed Purchases	Financing type at close	Share-of-sales trend	n ≥ 10	Live	—	Buyer	12
20	Top 5 School Zones by Sales Activity	Elementary/ISD, closed sales, median price	Activity ranking only, never quality	5 zones × 5 sales	Conditional	Needs ≥ 3 zones with ≥ 5 sales	Buyer	4
21	Lot Size and Land Value Trends	Lot size, price	Scatter with regression line	n ≥ 20	Off	Not in the supported set	Seller	—
22	Contract-to-Close: How Long Deals Take	Pending date, close date, financing	Cycle time by price tier and financing	n ≥ 10	Conditional	Needs ≥ 10 contract-to-close records	Buyer	—
23	Top 5 Words in the Fastest-Selling Listings	Public remarks, DOM	NLP term frequency vs. DOM	n ≥ 30 listings	Off	NLP not built	Info	—
24	Photo Count and Listing Performance	Photo count, DOM	Correlation analysis	n ≥ 30	Off	Not in the supported set	Info	—
25	Pending Pipeline: Next Month's Closings	Pending / under-contract counts	Leading-indicator projection	n ≥ 10 pending	Off	No current pending source	Buyer	—
26	Back-on-Market Rate: Deals That Fell Through	Status history	Contract failure rate trend	n ≥ 20 contracts	Off	Status history not in export	Seller	—
27	{Page} vs. Its Neighbors	Same KPIs for peer pages	Benchmark matrix	n ≥ 10 per peer	Live	—	Info	12
28	{Page} Market Heat Score	DOM, sale ratio, inventory, reductions	Composite index 0–100, weights stated	n ≥ 10 closed	Live	—	Info	—
29	Home Age and Condition Trends	Year built, price	Age-cohort pricing curve	n ≥ 20	Off	Not in the supported set	Seller	—
30	Ask the AI: Answering Buyers' Top Question	Question and data supplied in run	Grounded natural-language Q&A	Per question	Off	No question source	Info	—
31	{Page} Monthly Recap and Outlook	Month's rollup	Executive summary of all KPIs	n ≥ 10 closed	Live	—	Seller	2

Data tiers

Tier	Closed sales, trailing 12 mo	Analysis window	Pages
A	240 or more	Current month vs. prior month and same month last year	26
B	60–239	Rolling 6 months vs. prior 6 and same window last year	13
C	Under 60	Skipped; no post	3

Gaps found

Gap	Effect
Williamson County has no county page	Largest-volume suburban county; only its cities are covered
Bastrop County has no county page	Only Bastrop and Elgin city pages
Topic 28 is live but has never published	Not assigned on any page through Oct 2
Topic 22 has never published	Not assigned on any page through Oct 2
Mortgage rate fixed Oct 2	Topics 17 and 18 now live: Freddie Mac 30-yr, 7.28%, week of Oct 1 (FRED)
No current pending source	Topic 25 off; pending counts omitted

The 42 pages

Page #	Page	Level	County	Tier	Closed, 12 mo	ABOR coverage	Daily run
1	ABOR / Unlock MLS Region	Region	All	A	32,249	—	Runs daily
2	Travis County	County	Travis	A	12,992	—	Runs daily
3	Bell County	County	Bell	A	1,059	Partial	Runs daily
4	Hays County	County	Hays	A	3,962	—	Runs daily
5	Comal County	County	Comal	A	373	Partial	Runs daily
6	Guadalupe County	County	Guadalupe	B	180	Partial	Runs daily
7	Burnet County	County	Burnet	A	723	—	Runs daily
8	Caldwell County	County	Caldwell	A	433	—	Runs daily
9	Gillespie County	County	Gillespie	B	66	Partial	Runs daily
10	Milam County	County	Milam	B	153	—	Runs daily
11	Fayette County	County	Fayette	B	63	—	Runs daily
12	Lampasas County	County	Lampasas	B	137	—	Runs daily
13	Llano County	County	Llano	A	257	—	Runs daily
14	Gonzales County	County	Gonzales	C	27	Partial	Skipped (Tier C)
15	Lee County	County	Lee	B	73	—	Runs daily
16	Blanco County	County	Blanco	B	80	—	Runs daily
17	San Saba County	County	San Saba	C	2	—	Skipped (Tier C)
18	Sun City Texas	City	Williamson	A	590	—	Runs daily
19	Round Rock	City	Williamson	A	1,682	—	Runs daily
20	Leander	City	Williamson	A	1,484	—	Runs daily
21	Cedar Park	City	Williamson	A	781	—	Runs daily
22	San Marcos	City	Hays	A	694	—	Runs daily
23	Kyle	City	Hays	A	1,248	—	Runs daily
24	Pflugerville	City	Travis	A	1,220	—	Runs daily
25	Hutto	City	Williamson	A	1,021	—	Runs daily
26	Manor	City	Travis	A	511	—	Runs daily
27	Lakeway	City	Travis	A	272	—	Runs daily
28	Taylor	City	Williamson	B	209	—	Runs daily
29	Lockhart	City	Caldwell	A	251	—	Runs daily
30	Buda	City	Hays	A	868	—	Runs daily
31	Bastrop	City	Bastrop	A	560	—	Runs daily
32	Elgin	City	Bastrop	A	541	—	Runs daily
33	Liberty Hill	City	Williamson	A	995	—	Runs daily
34	Dripping Springs	City	Hays	A	575	—	Runs daily
35	Lago Vista	City	Travis	A	308	—	Runs daily
36	Marble Falls	City	Burnet	B	187	—	Runs daily
37	Bee Cave	City	Travis	C	28	—	Skipped (Tier C)
38	Burnet	City	Burnet	B	192	—	Runs daily
39	Jarrell	City	Williamson	A	618	—	Runs daily
40	Wimberley	City	Hays	B	207	—	Runs daily
41	Horseshoe Bay	City	Llano	B	162	—	Runs daily
42	Fredericksburg	City	Gillespie	B	62	Partial	Runs daily

Buydown costs · 30-year fixed at 7.28%

Rate	7.28%, Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed, week of Oct 1, 2026 (FRED MORTGAGE30US)
Price	Each page's median close price, current-month window used by the posts
Down payment	20% (assumption; setting `BUYDOWN_DOWN_PCT`)
Payment	Principal and interest only; taxes, insurance and HOA excluded
Cost	12 × (note-rate payment − bought-down payment), summed over the subsidized years
Rounding	Monthly payments rounded to the dollar first; totals = sum of shown years
Rule of thumb	At 20% down: 3/2/1 ≈ 3.72% of price · 2/1 ≈ 1.89% of price

Buydown	Year	Rate	Payment	Saves / mo	Year cost
ABOR Region example		7.28%	$2,239		Loan $327,200
3/2/1	1	4.28%	$1,615	$624	$7,488
3/2/1	2	5.28%	$1,813	$426	$5,112
3/2/1	3	6.28%	$2,021	$218	$2,616
3/2/1 total					$15,216
2/1	1	5.28%	$1,813	$426	$5,112
2/1	2	6.28%	$2,021	$218	$2,616
2/1 total					$7,728

Buydown cost by page

Page #	Page	County	Closed n	Median price	Loan (80%)	Payment at 7.28%	3/2/1 cost	% of price	2/1 cost	% of price
1	ABOR / Unlock MLS Region	All	2,854	$409,000	$327,200	$2,239	$15,216	3.72%	$7,728	1.89%
2	Travis County	Travis	1,127	$495,000	$396,000	$2,709	$18,384	3.71%	$9,336	1.89%
3	Bell County	Bell	101	$294,000	$235,200	$1,609	$10,920	3.71%	$5,544	1.89%
4	Hays County	Hays	395	$355,050	$284,040	$1,943	$13,188	3.71%	$6,696	1.89%
5	Comal County	Comal	38	$407,245	$325,796	$2,229	$15,144	3.72%	$7,692	1.89%
6	Guadalupe County	Guadalupe	95	$330,000	$264,000	$1,806	$12,252	3.71%	$6,216	1.88%
7	Burnet County	Burnet	77	$350,000	$280,000	$1,916	$13,032	3.72%	$6,624	1.89%
8	Caldwell County	Caldwell	37	$270,000	$216,000	$1,478	$10,044	3.72%	$5,100	1.89%
9	Gillespie County	Gillespie	43	$560,000	$448,000	$3,065	$20,808	3.72%	$10,572	1.89%
10	Milam County	Milam	87	$245,000	$196,000	$1,341	$9,096	3.71%	$4,620	1.89%
11	Fayette County	Fayette	38	$290,000	$232,000	$1,587	$10,776	3.72%	$5,472	1.89%
12	Lampasas County	Lampasas	78	$306,250	$245,000	$1,676	$11,376	3.71%	$5,784	1.89%
13	Llano County	Llano	26	$822,000	$657,600	$4,499	$30,528	3.71%	$15,504	1.89%
15	Lee County	Lee	48	$355,000	$284,000	$1,943	$13,188	3.71%	$6,696	1.89%
16	Blanco County	Blanco	43	$561,000	$448,800	$3,071	$20,856	3.72%	$10,596	1.89%
18	Sun City Texas	Williamson	59	$375,000	$300,000	$2,053	$13,956	3.72%	$7,092	1.89%
19	Round Rock	Williamson	120	$390,000	$312,000	$2,135	$14,508	3.72%	$7,368	1.89%
20	Leander	Williamson	118	$451,500	$361,200	$2,471	$16,776	3.72%	$8,520	1.89%
21	Cedar Park	Williamson	70	$480,000	$384,000	$2,627	$17,820	3.71%	$9,048	1.88%
22	San Marcos	Hays	55	$328,119	$262,495	$1,796	$12,204	3.72%	$6,204	1.89%
23	Kyle	Hays	139	$320,000	$256,000	$1,752	$11,916	3.72%	$6,060	1.89%
24	Pflugerville	Travis	106	$360,500	$288,400	$1,973	$13,392	3.71%	$6,804	1.89%
25	Hutto	Williamson	87	$338,990	$271,192	$1,856	$12,612	3.72%	$6,408	1.89%
26	Manor	Travis	47	$323,460	$258,768	$1,771	$12,036	3.72%	$6,120	1.89%
27	Lakeway	Travis	27	$715,000	$572,000	$3,914	$26,592	3.72%	$13,512	1.89%
28	Taylor	Williamson	123	$300,000	$240,000	$1,642	$11,148	3.72%	$5,664	1.89%
29	Lockhart	Caldwell	24	$275,000	$220,000	$1,505	$10,212	3.71%	$5,184	1.89%
30	Buda	Hays	89	$369,999	$295,999	$2,025	$13,752	3.72%	$6,984	1.89%
31	Bastrop	Bastrop	51	$376,990	$301,592	$2,064	$14,028	3.72%	$7,128	1.89%
32	Elgin	Bastrop	44	$281,500	$225,200	$1,541	$10,464	3.72%	$5,316	1.89%
33	Liberty Hill	Williamson	87	$500,050	$400,040	$2,737	$18,588	3.72%	$9,444	1.89%
34	Dripping Springs	Hays	44	$627,500	$502,000	$3,435	$23,340	3.72%	$11,856	1.89%
35	Lago Vista	Travis	19	$415,000	$332,000	$2,272	$15,444	3.72%	$7,848	1.89%
36	Marble Falls	Burnet	100	$326,142	$260,914	$1,785	$12,108	3.71%	$6,144	1.88%
38	Burnet	Burnet	116	$360,500	$288,400	$1,973	$13,392	3.71%	$6,804	1.89%
39	Jarrell	Williamson	66	$240,000	$192,000	$1,314	$8,928	3.72%	$4,536	1.89%
40	Wimberley	Hays	111	$550,000	$440,000	$3,011	$20,460	3.72%	$10,392	1.89%
41	Horseshoe Bay	Llano	99	$675,000	$540,000	$3,695	$25,104	3.72%	$12,756	1.89%
42	Fredericksburg	Gillespie	41	$560,000	$448,000	$3,065	$20,808	3.72%	$10,572	1.89%

Best Values rules (Mondays)

Homes per page	Up to 5, ranked by the ALEX deal score
Price cap	$1,000,000, or 1.5 × the page's 12-month median sale price rounded to the nearest $500,000, whichever is higher
#1	Featured Deal of the Week with photos; same ladder as before
#2–5	Listed below the ALEX valuation (gap ≤ 35%), not featured in the last 8 weeks
Too few qualify	Fewer homes are shown; no filler
Deal score	50% gap to ALEX valuation · 20% $/sq ft discount · 15% price cut · 15% days on market
Excluded	IDX opt-outs, fair-housing-restricted valuations, one listing per page per week
First live run	Monday, Oct 5, 2026, 9:10 AM

Price cap by page

#	Page	12-mo median	1.5 × median	Cap	Homes (test)
1	ABOR / Unlock MLS Region	$420,000	$630,000	$1,000,000	5
2	Travis County	$500,000	$750,000	$1,000,000	5
3	Bell County	$290,000	$435,000	$1,000,000	5
4	Hays County	$375,000	$562,500	$1,000,000	5
5	Comal County	$460,000	$690,000	$1,000,000	5
6	Guadalupe County	$318,000	$477,000	$1,000,000	5
7	Burnet County	$380,000	$570,000	$1,000,000	5
8	Caldwell County	$240,000	$360,000	$1,000,000	5
9	Gillespie County	$595,000	$892,500	$1,000,000	1
10	Milam County	$245,000	$367,500	$1,000,000	5
11	Fayette County	$320,000	$480,000	$1,000,000	5
12	Lampasas County	$299,000	$448,500	$1,000,000	5
13	Llano County	$585,000	$877,500	$1,000,000	5
14	Gonzales County	$308,000	$462,000	$1,000,000	2 · Tier C, no post
15	Lee County	$338,000	$507,000	$1,000,000	5
16	Blanco County	$561,000	$841,500	$1,000,000	5
17	San Saba County	$212,000	$318,000	$1,000,000	1 · Tier C, no post
18	Sun City Texas	$396,000	$594,000	$1,000,000	5
19	Round Rock	$400,000	$600,000	$1,000,000	5
20	Leander	$457,000	$685,500	$1,000,000	5
21	Cedar Park	$491,000	$736,500	$1,000,000	5
22	San Marcos	$320,000	$480,000	$1,000,000	5
23	Kyle	$319,000	$478,500	$1,000,000	5
24	Pflugerville	$383,000	$574,500	$1,000,000	5
25	Hutto	$340,000	$510,000	$1,000,000	5
26	Manor	$340,000	$510,000	$1,000,000	5
27	Lakeway	$712,000	$1,068,000	$1,000,000	5
28	Taylor	$300,000	$450,000	$1,000,000	5
29	Lockhart	$263,000	$394,500	$1,000,000	5
30	Buda	$350,000	$525,000	$1,000,000	5
31	Bastrop	$375,000	$562,500	$1,000,000	5
32	Elgin	$286,000	$429,000	$1,000,000	5
33	Liberty Hill	$505,000	$757,500	$1,000,000	5
34	Dripping Springs	$615,000	$922,500	$1,000,000	5
35	Lago Vista	$418,000	$627,000	$1,000,000	5
36	Marble Falls	$345,000	$517,500	$1,000,000	5
37	Bee Cave	$852,000	$1,278,000	$1,500,000	1 · Tier C, no post
38	Burnet	$343,000	$514,500	$1,000,000	5
39	Jarrell	$260,000	$390,000	$1,000,000	5
40	Wimberley	$562,000	$843,000	$1,000,000	5
41	Horseshoe Bay	$735,000	$1,102,500	$1,000,000	2
42	Fredericksburg	$595,000	$892,500	$1,000,000	2

Top 20 most active subdivisions · ABOR, last 120 days

#	Subdivision	City	County	New listings	Contracts	Closed	Activity	Closed $ volume	New-constr. share
1	Sun City	Georgetown	Williamson	225	211	217	653	$87.5M	5%
2	Santa Rita Ranch	Liberty Hill	Williamson	150	123	133	406	$76.7M	41%
3	Sunfield	Buda	Hays	121	85	94	300	$36.4M	35%
4	Parkside on the River	Georgetown	Williamson	100	68	92	260	$62.6M	33%
5	Easton Park	Austin	Travis	84	89	80	253	$45.2M	26%
6	Wolf Ranch	Georgetown	Williamson	80	73	89	242	$55.8M	35%
7	Steiner Ranch	Austin	Travis	92	65	76	233	$79.9M	0%
8	Lariat	Liberty Hill	Williamson	85	68	73	226	$35.4M	46%
9	Waterstone	Kyle	Hays	72	64	62	198	$17.0M	43%
10	The Colony	Bastrop	Bastrop	70	60	54	184	$25.5M	38%
11	Plum Creek	Kyle	Hays	68	51	61	180	$19.3M	29%
12	Tahitian Village	Bastrop	Bastrop	82	42	50	174	$19.5M	46%
13	Rancho Del Cielo	Jarrell	Williamson	81	45	48	174	$10.4M	35%
14	Meadowlark Preserve	Pflugerville	Travis	61	52	55	168	$19.6M	51%
15	Elm Creek	Elgin	Travis	75	53	38	166	$9.7M	30%
16	Lakeway	Lakeway	Travis	70	45	49	164	$40.6M	1%
17	Winfield Park	Hutto	Williamson	88	58	16	162	$4.6M	18%
18	Cool Water	Jarrell	Williamson	88	39	33	160	$7.8M	39%
19	Milwood	Austin	Williamson / Travis	70	41	47	158	$23.3M	0%
20	River Bridge Ranch	San Marcos	Hays	59	53	40	152	$9.4M	47%

Subdivision method

Source	Bridge OData API, `actris/Property`, pulled live Oct 2, 2026
Window	Jun 4 – Oct 2, 2026 (120 days)
Records	29,374 residential sale records (leases excluded)
Activity	New listings + contracts written + closed sales in the window
Event dates	`ListingContractDate` · `PurchaseContractDate` · `CloseDate`
Grouping	`subdivision_family()` within city; generic first words (Village, Rancho, River…) split on two words
Excluded	667 records with no subdivision name

Subdivision notes

Item	Detail
Sun City	129 name variants combined
Milwood	Spans two counties: Williamson 48, Travis 46 records
Winfield Park	16 closed vs. 146 new + contracts
Next three	Circle C Ranch 149 · Sonterra (Jarrell) 147 · Avery Ranch 141