Liberty Hill Market Heat Score: What the Data Says
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-12
Deal of the Week
This week's 5 best values under $1,000,000, ranked by the ALEX deal score:
1. 204 Jordan Valley DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #2651849
Listed at $365,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,612 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 13% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1176974711/204-Jordan-Valley-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
2. 277 Langhorne BND, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #1712098
Listed at $339,990, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,340 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing?q=277+Langhorne+BND%2C+Liberty+Hill%2C+TX
3. 128 Ensberg LN, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #7808887
Listed at $649,000, 5 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,689 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; 10% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 19% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183547386/128-Ensberg-LN-Liberty-Hill-TX
4. 324 Windstar RD, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #8917503
Listed at $420,000, 5 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,813 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 24% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 12% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182523191/324-Windstar-RD-Liberty-Hill-TX
5. 313 Pendent DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #5489942
Listed at $424,900, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,250 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186070233/313-Pendent-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
What does a composite market heat score indicate for Liberty Hill buyers and sellers? This index, calculated by ALEX Intelligence using weighted factors for days on market, list-to-sale ratio, inventory levels, and price reductions, signals a shift in market dynamics compared to earlier in the year.
The score relies on four key metrics tracked over the last 12 months. First, homes are spending an average of 74 days on market, up 8.8% from August and significantly higher than the 56-day regional average. Second, the median sale price reached $467,700, which is 4.7% above last September but down 8.9% from the previous month. Third, only 91.2% of the original list price was achieved on average, with 86% of homes selling below their initial asking price. Finally, active inventory has grown to 481 listings, creating a 4.69-month supply that exceeds the balanced market threshold.
The ALEX Intelligence model assigns weights to these variables to generate a single score from 0 to 100. While the specific index value is an internal calculation, the underlying data shows a clear trend: longer selling times and increased stock are pulling the market away from the high-velocity conditions seen in spring. For sellers, this data suggests that pricing must be precise to avoid extended time on market. For buyers, the current conditions offer more negotiation room than earlier in the year. The median price per square foot remains steady at $199, indicating that while volume has shifted, value per unit of space has held relatively firm despite the broader inventory increase.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker.
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
Director, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al.
Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB
Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733
Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456
[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, September 2026, n=86; mortgage rate data from Freddie Mac, week of 2026-10-08.
Cover photo: Stubblefield Building, Liberty Hill, Texas (8636273076).jpg by Nicolas Henderson from Coppell, Texas, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Director, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Director, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov





