Lago Vista Market Heat Score: What the Data Shows in September

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 20701 Camel Back ST, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #6398406 · Listed by eXp Realty, LLC. ALEX valuation $336,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $340,000 20701 Camel Back ST, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #6398406 Listed at $334,900, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,759 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; 8% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185888056/20701-Camel-Back-ST-Lago-Vista-TX Lower-middle quartile: $340,000 to $415,000 20900 Boggy Ford RD, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #2376259 Listed at $385,000, 3 bed, 3 bath, 2,021 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 8% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186569376/20900-Boggy-Ford-RD-Lago-Vista-TX Upper-middle quartile: $415,000 to $600,000 3721 Firemans TRL, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #8879039 Listed at $495,000, 1 bed, 1 bath, 873 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 45% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182519947/3721-Firemans-TRL-Lago-Vista-TX Upper quartile: $600,000 and up 3206 Marshall Ave, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #5601067 Listed at $849,000, 4 bed, 4 bath, 3,050 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1172611549/3206-Marshall-Ave-Lago-Vista-TX

Key figures · Lago Vista · September 2026

12 homes sold in Lago Vista in September 2026 (down 50.0% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $378,500 (down 2.3% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $198.

Median days on market: 78.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 90.5%.

199 homes for sale now, about 6.7 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

How does a market shift when homes sit longer and prices dip? In Lago Vista, the ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score for September 2026 reflects a cooling trend. This composite index blends four key signals: median days on market, sale-to-list ratio, inventory levels, and price reductions. The score reflects a shift in conditions compared to recent months. Median days on market rose to 78 days, up 21.9% from the prior month and down 14.3% from September 2025. Homes sold for 90.5% of their original list price, a 5.3% drop month-over-month but slightly better than the same time last year. With 199 active listings and 12 closings in September, months of inventory stood at 6.71, indicating a shift toward buyer leverage. ALEX Intelligence calculated this score using equal weights for days on market, price ratio, inventory pressure, and reduction frequency. A score near 50 suggests a balanced market, while lower scores point to softer demand. The data shows that while sales volume remains modest with only 12 closed transactions, the pace of negotiation has slowed significantly. This analysis is based on 12 closed sales in September 2026 and current inventory counts. It does not predict future prices but reflects the conditions observed during the reporting window. Buyers may find more negotiating room, while sellers should expect longer marketing periods and potential price adjustments to move listings. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951