Horseshoe Bay: Mortgage Rates and Buying Power in October

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 104 Springfield, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #2853973 · Listed by RE/MAX HORSESHOE BAY RESORT SA. ALEX valuation $388,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $435,000 104 Springfield, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #2853973 Listed at $399,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,999 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 3% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182517946/104-Springfield-Horseshoe-Bay-TX Lower-middle quartile: $435,000 to $728,000 100 W Up There, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #4924482 Listed at $515,000, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,471 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182521222/100-W-Up-There-Horseshoe-Bay-TX Upper-middle quartile: $728,000 to $1,296,000 101 Third Sid W, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #2379325 Listed at $1,200,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,442 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 20% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185658616/101-Third-Sid-W-Horseshoe-Bay-TX Upper quartile: $1,296,000 and up 111 Orange Plume, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #4141197 Listed at $2,995,000, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 5,389 sq ft. Listed 24% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177444638/111-Orange-Plume-Horseshoe-Bay-TX

Key figures · Horseshoe Bay · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026

101 homes sold in Horseshoe Bay in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 6.3% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $785,000 (down 1.3% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $301.

Median days on market: 77.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 91.6%.

187 homes for sale now, about 11.1 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Horseshoe Bay buyers face a distinct affordability challenge this month as the median home price sits at $785,000 while mortgage rates hold at 7.32%. ALEX Intelligence modeled the monthly principal and interest payment for a typical buyer putting 20% down on a median-priced home, which comes to $4,314 per month at the current rate. To understand how financing concessions impact this figure, we applied a hedonic pricing model to recent sales data to estimate the value of buydowns. A standard 3/2/1 buydown reduces the interest rate to 4.32% in year one, 5.32% in year two, and 6.32% in year three. For a median-priced home, this strategy costs $29,244 upfront but saves buyers $1,199 in the first month alone, with total savings of over $25,000 across the three-year period. A shorter 2/1 buydown offers a lower cost of $14,856, reducing the rate to 5.32% and then 6.32%. While these tools improve immediate cash flow, they do not change the underlying median price of $785,000 or the fact that 92.1% of sales in the last six months closed below the original list price. The market remains sensitive to rate fluctuations, with the median price per square foot dropping 9.6% compared to the prior six-month period as buyers adjust their budgets to current financing costs. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951