ALEX Comprehensive Valuation — 221 Chaparral RD, Georgetown, TX 78628

Property Summary

This report evaluates 221 Chaparral RD, Georgetown, TX 78628, a 3-bed / 2-bath, 1,762 SF home built in 1997, situated on a 43,560 SF lot in Porter A H Sur. Currently listed at $525,000 with 51 days on market. ALEX analyzed 164 closed sales and selected 3 comps at threshold T70.

DOM

51

List Price

$525,000

ALEX Value

$520,213

Value Range

$505,857 – $530,100

Comps

3

Confidence

Low

ALEX Valuation

Low

$505,000

2.88% below Recommended

✓ Recommended

$520,000

ALEX optimized price ∙ Balanced days-on-market ∙ Data-supported

High

$541,000

4.04% above Recommended

Statistical Confidence Indicators

Forecast Std. Deviation (FSD)

2.4%

How spread out the comp estimates are. Lower means more agreement.

Back-test Error

22.9%

How accurate ALEX was when tested on each comp. Lower is better.

80% Confidence Interval

$504,565 – $535,861

ALEX is 80% sure the true value falls in this range.

Property-Specific Adjustments

Conditions of the property's access that the comparable-sales analysis does not capture, because they are facts about this parcel rather than differences between it and a comparable.

ROAD CONDITION ADJUSTMENTS
Condition	Basis	Established from	Adjustment
Unpaved street	$5,000 per $500,000 of value, $5,000 minimum	George Alexander, confirmed on site, 2026-09-11	−$5,202
Private road, no maintenance agreement	$4,500 per $500,000 of value, $4,500 minimum	George Alexander, confirmed on site, 2026-09-11 + George Alexander, confirmed on site, 2026-09-11	−$4,682
Total road adjustment			−$9,884
ALEX valuation before road adjustment			$520,213
Adjusted valuation			$510,329

Street surface: Not paved (George Alexander, confirmed on site, 2026-09-11) · Private road: Yes (George Alexander, confirmed on site, 2026-09-11) · Maintenance agreement: No (George Alexander, confirmed on site, 2026-09-11)

Market Direction

Where the wider market is moving, independent of this property. The comparable sales establish the level; these establish the direction. Local series are shaded.

FRED MACRO CONTEXT
Series	Latest	Year over year	Five year
Austin-Round Rock MSA house price index ATNHPIUS12420Q · quarterly · as of 2026-04-01	506.31	▲ 0.34%	▲ 15.25%
Austin MSA unemployment AUST448URN · monthly · as of 2026-07-01	4.00%	▲ 14.29%	—
Case-Shiller US national home price index CSUSHPINSA · monthly · as of 2026-06-01	336.66	▲ 1.53%	—
US median sales price MSPUS · quarterly · as of 2026-04-01	$410,700	▼ 1.30%	▲ 11.66%
30-year fixed mortgage MORTGAGE30US · weekly · as of 2026-09-10	6.76%	▲ 6.46%	—
15-year fixed mortgage MORTGAGE15US · weekly · as of 2026-09-10	6.09%	▲ 10.73%	—
Housing starts (SAAR, thousands) HOUST · monthly · as of 2026-07-01	1,239k	▼ 13.48%	—
Building permits (SAAR, thousands) PERMIT · monthly · as of 2026-07-01	1,433k	▲ 2.36%	—
Existing home sales (SAAR) EXHOSLUSM495S · monthly · as of 2026-08-01	3.98M	▼ 1.24%	—
US unemployment UNRATE · monthly · as of 2026-08-01	4.10%	▼ 4.65%	—

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED), public series, fetched live. Each row carries its own observation date because the series publish at different frequencies — the Austin MSA index is quarterly.

Valuation Benchmarks

$ Value Comparison

$ Per SF Comparison

Source	Value	$/SF	vs ALEX
ALEX	$520,213	$295/SF	—
List	$525,000	$298/SF	+0.9%
Tax	$400,209	$227/SF	-23.1%
HouseCanary	$516,700	$293/SF	-0.7%
CoreLogic	$506,100	$287/SF	-2.7%
Zillow	$513,700	$292/SF	-1.3%

HouseCanary $516,700

Low: $501,793High: $531,607 ▎ ALEX: $520,213

FSD	11.0%
Confidence	89%
Range	$501,793 – $531,607

CoreLogic $506,100

Low: $473,000High: $539,300 ▎ ALEX: $520,213

FSD	7.0%
Confidence	93%
Range	$473,000 – $539,300

Zillow Zestimate $513,700

Low: $488,015High: $539,385 ▎ ALEX: $520,213

FSD	5.0%
Confidence	90%
Range	$488,015 – $539,385

What this means: Alex AVM is trained on 379,565 Austin-area closed sales (last training cutoff April 2026). On 18,750 hold-out homes the model never saw, it was correct within 5% on 89.1% of homes and within 10% on 97.6%. The 68% confidence band shown above was empirically calibrated to land at 69.2% on the most recent forward-holdout cycle (n=4,144 closed sales, 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28) — within the pre-registered ±2 percentage-point accuracy target.

Methodology: Alex AVM (model V11, BQML boosted tree, 905 trees, 241 features). Point-prediction calibration metrics — MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), Within-5%, Within-10% — reported per MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (Rigollet, 2016) and IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013). Per-property confidence interval via split-conformal Mondrian calibration on V11 residuals (Vovk-Shafer-Romano, 2005); paired-rolling regime (V12 Lever #1 v3, promoted to production 2026-04-30): 6-month calibration window × 2-month forward validation × 1-month inter-window gap (settlement-latency buffer, disjointness enforced by ASSERT). Mondrian partitioning by ws3 cluster × predicted-price decile, n-floor 160 per cell with ALL|ALL fallback. Monthly auto-recalibration via BQ scheduled query (transfer config 69ee9417, fires 1st of month 09:00 UTC) absorbs sampling-noise draws across cycles. Pre-registered α_cal=0.26 calibration-window drift buffer carried verbatim from v1. Cycle-1 OVERALL coverage 69.16% on n=4,144 (delta +1.16pp from nominal 68%, within ±2pp band, binomial 95% half-width ±1.42pp). Final promotion contingent on 3-cycle continuity (Lock §3 row 3); cycles 2 (May 1) and 3 (Jun 1) pending.

Disclosed conditional-coverage caveats: Per-segment cycle-1 (2026-04-30) coverage on the val window 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28: austin_core 70.13% on n=154; ranches 74.16% on n=89 (rural properties have heavy-tailed residuals; CIs are conservatively wide); lake_travis 78.57% on n=42; sun_city 64.52% on n=31; unclustered_fallback 68.95% on n=3,816. Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage by theorem (Vovk-Shafer-Romano 2005); per-segment conditional coverage is subject to finite-sample sampling noise and is re-measured every cycle. Cycle-2 and cycle-3 numbers will refresh this caveat block.

New construction note: HouseCanary, CoreLogic and Zillow rely on historical transaction records and tax-assessment data, so their estimates can lag by months on newly-built homes lacking a recorded sale history; Alex AVM also incorporates live MLS listing features for the subject property.

Reproducibility: calibration script V12_LEVER1_CALIBRATE_QUANTILES.sh; validation script V12_LEVER1_VALIDATE_COVERAGE.sh; monthly scheduled query transfer-config 69ee9417 (us-central1). Hover the MAPE row above for this listing's individualized FSD value.

ALEX AI — 0 features · 0 trees · MAPE 0%

ALEX AI Valuation unavailable for this subject.

HouseCanary

HouseCanary is an institutional-grade AVM platform used by banks, hedge funds, and iBuyers. It applies machine learning across 40+ years of transaction data at the census block level. HouseCanary reports CL* and FSD*, emphasizing statistical precision for institutional underwriting and portfolio analysis. Best used as the institutional precision benchmark.

CoreLogic

CoreLogic is one of the largest real estate data companies in the U.S., powering the backend of most MLS platforms and many traditional lenders. Its AVM draws on extensive tax records, foreclosure data, and transaction history. CoreLogic provides CL* and FSD* as standard confidence and accuracy metrics. Best used as the agent ecosystem benchmark.

Zillow Zestimate

Zillow is the most widely recognized consumer real estate platform in the United States. Its Zestimate® is what buyers and sellers most commonly reference when forming initial price expectations. Zillow publishes a Confidence Level (CL*) and FSD* with each estimate. Best used as a consumer perception benchmark.

TAX DATA

The 2026 total market value is $400,209, compared to $477,693 in 2025, a decrease of 16.2% (−$77,484). Improvement value moved −$1,984 and land value −$75,500.

MARKET VALUE COMPARISON — 2026 vs 2025
	2026	2025	$ Change 2025→2026	% Change
Improvement Value	$258,709	$260,693	−$1,984	▼ 0.8%
Land Value	$141,500	$217,000	−$75,500	▼ 34.8%
Total Market Value	$400,209	$477,693	−$77,484	▼ 16.2%

MARKET VALUE BREAKDOWN

Source: cad:WCAD. Williamson and Travis parcels use the certified CAD market value; other counties use Bridge API public records (parcels + assessments). Total = Improvement + Land. Both columns are drawn from a single certified roll year each. Annual property tax depends on the buyer's exemption profile (homestead, over-65, disabled veteran, agricultural, etc.) and is not displayed here.

Comparable Sales Summary

Selected Comparable Properties

Cascade target met at 3 comparables. Use Change to override any property, then press Selection Finalized to regenerate with your final set.

11011 Fountainwood DR$630,000 · 2,153 SF
2147 Casa Loma CIR$430,000 · 1,465 SF
3228 Summer Wood CT$733,195 · 2,176 SF

Sales Analyzed

164

Comps Selected

3

Median Net Sale

$630,000

Median SF

2,153 SF

Median $/SF

$293.52

DOM

19

Address	Close Date	SF	YB	Bd/Ba	Net Sale	$/SF	DOM
1011 Fountainwood DR	2026-03-24	2,153 SF	1994	3/2	$630,000	$292.61	172
147 Casa Loma CIR	2025-10-09	1,465 SF	1993	3/2	$430,000	$293.52	338
228 Summer Wood CT	2025-10-23	2,176 SF	2004	3/2	$733,195	$336.95	324

Comp Detail Pages

Comp 1: 1011 Fountainwood DR 172 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,153 SF
Year Built	1994
Bed / Bath	3 / 2
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	43,996 SF
View	['Neighborhood', 'Park/Greenbelt', 'Trees/Woods']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-03-24
Original List	$675,000
Last List	$675,000
Close Price	$635,000
Sale-to-List	94.1%
Concessions	—
Repairs	$5,000
Net Sale Price	$630,000
Net $/SF	$292.61
Adj Net $/SF	$246.21

Net Sale Price

$630,000

$292.61/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-99,900

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$530,100

$246.21/SF

Public Remarks

Texas Style Limestone home with a gardeners paradise in a Georgetown favorite, Fountainwood Estates. Nestled on a beautifully wooded 1.01 acre lot this limestone home offers privacy, space and timeless Hill Country charm. It's truly a gardener's dream - ready for you to walk in and start building (or expanding) your gardening vision immediately. Property includes a 16x30 greenhouse, fully outfitted with lighting, fans, vents and a wet sink, making it ideal for year-round growing. 8x4 raised planter boxes provide ample space for vegetables, flowers and herbs, all equipped with a built-in watering system for ease and efficiency. Also enjoy multiple variety of figs, pear and stone fruit trees. Inside, the 2,153sq ft home you'll find 3 bedrooms, 2 bath, plus a dedicated office with a full-size closet - easily serving as a 4th bedroom option if needed. Wood and tile flooring and abundant natural light create a warm, inviting atmosphere throughout. The kitchen offers quartz countertops, generous prep space, a center island with storage and a reverse osmosis water filtration system. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-like bathroom with a soaking tub, separate walk-in shower and quartz countertops. Secondary bathroom continues the quartz finishes for a cohesive, elevated feel. Outdoors, enjoy an incredible covered patio with wood beams and ceiling fans - perfect for entertaining or relaxing while overlooking the private, wooded west side of the property, which provides seclusion and tranquility. This is more than a backyard, it's a lifestyle for anyone who loves fresh food, sustainability and outdoor living. Backyard is also fully fenced. Just minutes to grocery, restaurants, medical offices, banking, Jim Hogg Park and Lake Georgetown. This home seamlessly blends comfort, functionality, outdoor living, and a rare turnkey gardening setup in on the area's most popular neighborhoods.

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-1,248
View — by AI	+$6,300
STRUCTURAL
Year Built / Age — by AI	+$18,900
OUTDOOR
Mature Trees — by AI	$-10,000
INTERIOR
Soaking Tub — by AI	$-15,000
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-99,900
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$530,100

Adjustment Chart

Comp 2: 147 Casa Loma CIR 338 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	1,465 SF
Year Built	1993
Bed / Bath	3 / 2
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	47,184 SF
View	['None']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2025-10-09
Original List	$430,000
Last List	$430,000
Close Price	$430,000
Sale-to-List	100.0%
Concessions	—
Repairs	—
Net Sale Price	$430,000
Net $/SF	$293.52
Adj Net $/SF	$355.09

Net Sale Price

$430,000

$293.52/SF

ALEX Adjustment

+$90,213

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$520,213

$355.09/SF

Public Remarks

Welcome to 147 Casa Loma Cir, Georgetown, TX 78633—a rare gem nestled on a sprawling 1.08-acre lot just about a mile from the sparkling shores of Lake Georgetown! This charming home offers over 1,450+ sqft of inviting living space, perfectly blending country tranquility with the convenience of city amenities. Step inside and be greeted by an abundance of natural light streaming through expansive windows, creating a warm and airy atmosphere throughout. The glass-enclosed sunroom is the perfect spot to unwind and watch local wildlife, making every day feel like a retreat. With no HOA restrictions, you have the freedom to truly make this property your own. Enjoy the peace and privacy of country living while being just minutes from the heart of Georgetown. Explore nearby attractions like Lake Georgetown for boating, fishing, and hiking, or head into town for shopping and dining at popular spots such as Monument Cafe, Rivery Park, and Wolf Ranch Town Center. Essential conveniences like H-E-B and local favorites like Sweet Lemon Kitchen are just a short drive away. With so much potential and a prime location, 147 Casa Loma Cir is the perfect canvas for your dream home. Don’t miss this unique opportunity, schedule your tour today and experience the best of Georgetown living!

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-6,606
View — by AI	+$8,600
STRUCTURAL
Year Built / Age — by AI	+$17,200
INTERIOR
Fireplace — by AI	+$15,000
Flooring — by AI	$-4,300
Kitchen — by AI	$-15,000
ALEX Total Adjustments	+$90,213
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$520,213

Adjustment Chart

Comp 3: 228 Summer Wood CT 324 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,176 SF
Year Built	2004
Bed / Bath	3 / 2
Story	Single
Pool	Yes
Lot Size	53,387 SF
View	['Pool', 'Trees/Woods', 'Vineyard']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2025-10-23
Original List	$749,000
Last List	$749,000
Close Price	$735,000
Sale-to-List	98.1%
Concessions	—
Repairs	$1,805
Net Sale Price	$733,195
Net $/SF	$336.95
Adj Net $/SF	$232.47

Net Sale Price

$733,195

$336.95/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-227,338

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$505,857

$232.47/SF

Public Remarks

Discover the private oasis for your best life in this charming 1.2-acre cul-de-sac estate. Tucked away in the desirable gated Gabriels Overlook neighborhood this property offers unparalleled privacy and a serene escape. Enjoy stunning sunsets surrounded by nature, as the property backs up to a lush green space with fishing pond, and an abundance of local wildlife. A private gate from your backyard leads you directly to the extensive walking trails that wind through the natural landscape. This home is a haven for those who appreciate the finer things & relaxed pace of life. A standout feature is the established personal vineyard, ready for you to enjoy your winemaking hobby. Mature Tempranillo, Sangiovese, and Mourvedre grape vines—all sustained by a dedicated irrigation system. Inside, the inviting kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a center island, beautiful quartz counters, and a decorative Bourge Arco ceramic tile backsplash. The upgraded cabinets include accent rain glass doors, complemented by pendant lights, stone on the breakfast bar, and high-end stainless appliances. Throughout the home, you'll find elegant details like tray ceilings and all hard-surface flooring, including both hardwood and tile. A practical Murphy bed in a secondary bedroom offers flexible space for guests or hobbies, while the oversized utility room includes a convenient sink. The serene owner's retreat is a peaceful sanctuary with a tray ceiling and a spacious en-suite bath complete with a jetted tub, separate shower, dual sinks, and a large walk-in closet. Step outside to your private outdoor paradise with a heated pool and spa. Relax in a tranquil pergola, where a daybed is nestled beneath a canopy of fragrant roses and lush grapevines. For health enthusiasts, an Infrared Sauna and massage therapy spa are both negotiable. The detached workshop is a versatile space for any passion, featuring, electricity, and an AC unit. This is a one-of-a-kind home you won't want to miss.

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-26,992
View — by AI	+$10,998
STRUCTURAL
Workshop — by AI	$-10,000
Year Built / Age — by AI	$-51,324
OUTDOOR
Pergola — by AI	$-7,500
Pool — by AI	$-47,658
INTERIOR
Flooring — by AI	+$25,662
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-227,338
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$505,857

Adjustment Chart

Consolidated Indicated Value Summary

Agent adjustments entered above are reflected in the Indicated Value column below.

Adjustment	1011 Fountainwood DR	147 Casa Loma CIR	228 Summer Wood CT

Sale Price	$635,000	$430,000	$735,000
Buyer Closing Costs	—	—	—
Repairs	$-5,000	—	$-1,805
Net Sale Price	$630,000	$430,000	$733,195
Net $/SF	$292.61	$293.52	$336.95
SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-1,248	$-6,606	$-26,992
View — by AI	+$6,300	+$8,600	+$10,998
STRUCTURAL
Year Built / Age — by AI	+$18,900	+$17,200	$-51,324
OUTDOOR
Mature Trees — by AI	$-10,000	—	—
INTERIOR
Soaking Tub — by AI	$-15,000	—	—
Fireplace — by AI	—	+$15,000	—
Flooring — by AI	—	$-4,300	+$25,662
Kitchen — by AI	—	$-15,000	—
STRUCTURAL
Workshop — by AI	—	—	$-10,000
OUTDOOR
Pergola — by AI	—	—	$-7,500
Pool — by AI	—	—	$-47,658
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0	$0	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0	$0	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0	$0	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0	$0	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0	$0	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0	$0	$0
Agent Total	$0	$0	$0
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-99,900	+$90,213	$-227,338
Indicated Value	$530,100	$520,213	$505,857

Green = upward adjustment (comp inferior to subject).
Red = downward adjustment (comp superior to subject).
Only rows with |adj| > $500 in at least one comp are shown.
Adjustment rates sourced from Appraisal Institute, TRERC, Fannie Mae, and ALEX current rate table.

Comp Selection Cascade

Tier	Geography	Lookback	Year Built	SF Range	Sales Found
T0	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T1	Subdivision	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T2	Subdivision	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T3	Subdivision	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T4	Subdivision	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T5	Subdivision	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T6	Subdivision	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T7	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T8	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T9	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T10	Subdivision	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T11	Subdivision	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T12	Subdivision	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T13	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T14	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T15	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T16	Subdivision	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T17	Subdivision	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T18	Subdivision	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T19	Subdivision	360 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T20	Subdivision	360 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T21	Subdivision	360 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T22	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T23	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T24	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T25	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T26	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T27	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T28	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T29	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T30	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T31	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T32	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T33	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T34	Subdivision	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T35	Subdivision	360 days	±5 yrs	±20%	0
T36	Subdivision	360 days	±5 yrs	±20%	0
T37	Subdivision	360 days	±7 yrs	±25%	0
T38	Subdivision	360 days	±7 yrs	±25%	0
T39	Subdivision	540 days	±7 yrs	±30%	0
T40	Subdivision	540 days	±7 yrs	±30%	0
T41	Block Group	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T42	Block Group	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T43	Block Group	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T44	Block Group	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T45	Block Group	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T46	Block Group	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T47	Block Group	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T48	Block Group	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T49	Block Group	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T50	Block Group	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T51	Block Group	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T52	Block Group	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T53	Census Tract	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T54	Census Tract	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T55	Census Tract	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T56	Census Tract	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T57	Census Tract	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T58	Census Tract	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T59	Census Tract	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T60	Census Tract	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T61	Census Tract	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T62	Census Tract	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T63	Census Tract	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T64	Census Tract	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T65	<=2.0mi	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T66	<=2.0mi	360 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T67	<=3.0mi	270 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T68	<=3.0mi	360 days	±5 yrs	±25%	0
T69	<=5.0mi	360 days	±5 yrs	±20%	1
T70	<=5.0mi	540 days	±7 yrs	±25%	3
T71	<=5.0mi	360 days	±5 yrs	±25%	2
T72	<=5.0mi	540 days	±7 yrs	±25%	3
T73	<=0.5mi	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T74	<=0.5mi	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T75	<=0.5mi	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T76	<=0.5mi	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T77	<=1.0mi	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T78	<=1.0mi	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T79	<=1.0mi	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T80	<=1.0mi	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T81	<=1.5mi	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T82	<=1.5mi	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T83	<=1.5mi	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T84	<=1.5mi	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	0
T85	<=2.0mi	270 days	±5 yrs	±20%	0
T86	<=2.0mi	360 days	±5 yrs	±20%	0
T87	<=2.5mi	360 days	±5 yrs	±25%	0
T88	<=3.0mi	360 days	±7 yrs	±25%	1

Methodology & Audit Trail

Comp Pool Exclusion Funnel

Raw Fetched	165
− Missing Data	−1
− Poor Condition	−0
Pool After Pre-filter	164
Comps Selected (T70)	3

Raw Fetched — All closed sales in the same subdivision and city within the lookback window.
Missing Data — Sales removed because living area or close price was not recorded (required for adjustment math).
Poor Condition — Sales rated Fair or Poor condition; not valid comps for a standard-condition subject.
Pool After Pre-filter — Eligible sales remaining after removing incomplete and distressed records.
Comps Selected — Final comps chosen by the cascade algorithm at the selected tier.

Confidence Score Breakdown

Factor	Score	Detail
Comp Tier Quality	12 / 25	Threshold T70
Back-Test Error	17 / 25	8.1% avg error
Recency	12 / 25	Avg 278 days
Adjustment Magnitude	12 / 25	Avg ±22.6% adj
Tier Bonus	0 / 15	T70 quality bonus
TOTAL	53 / 115	→ Low Confidence

Comp Tier Quality — How closely the selected comps match the subject (same subdivision, similar size and age).
Back-Test Error — How accurately ALEX's adjustments reproduced known sale prices on held-out test data; lower is better.
Recency — How recently the comps sold; older sales carry more market-shift uncertainty.
Adjustment Magnitude — How large the total adjustments are relative to sale price; larger adjustments reduce certainty.
Tier Bonus — Extra weight applied when top-tier (T1) comps are available and selected.

Report Metadata

Threshold	T70
Comps Selected	3
Comp Pool Size	164
Subdivision	Porter A H Sur
Rate Table Version	v1.0-March2026
Source	Bridge API / ACTRIS
Approved By	ALEX Intelligence Valuation Engine
Total Flags	RED: 0, AMBER: 4, BLUE: 5
FEMA Check	{'in_flood_zone': False, 'zone': None, 'success': False}
Tax Data Source	cad:WCAD

Metric Definitions

Estimated Market Value — The ALEX valuation conclusion: a weighted average of the lot size and age adjusted indicated values across all comps. The Best Comp is counted twice.
Best Comp Selection — Determined automatically by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions: lot size differential, age differential, living SF differential, and net $/SF proximity to the target property’s list price per SF. The comp with the lowest composite T-score is designated Best Comp.
Average — The plain arithmetic average of all comp-indicated values, with no weighting applied.
Range — The spread from the lowest to the highest indicated value across all comps.
Forecast Standard Deviation — How widely the comp-indicated values are spread around the estimate, expressed as a dollar amount and as a percentage of the estimated market value.
Confidence Interval — The value range within which the true market value is statistically expected to fall, given the variability and number of comps in this analysis.
Net Sale Price — The true economic transfer price: ClosePrice − seller-paid buyer closing costs − seller-paid repair credits. Both fields default to zero if not reported.
Adjusted Net Sale Price — The comp’s net sale price corrected for lot size and age differences versus the target property.
Indicated Value — The comp’s per-foot rate × the target property’s living area. Each comp produces its own Indicated Value; the weighted average of all Indicated Values is the Estimated Market Value.

Limitations & Methodology Disclosures

1.	Not a formal appraisal — This analysis does not constitute a licensed appraisal, nor professional real estate, legal, or financial advice. It is a decision-support tool for ALEX Partners and their clients only.
2.	Adjustment scope — Adjustments are applied across lot size, age, living area, condition, view, location, amenities, market timing, garage, and other factors. Adjustment methodology follows Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, 15th Ed. (2020) and Fannie Mae Selling Guide §B4-1.3-09.
3.	Age adjustment rate — The depreciation rate applied is consistent with economic age/life models documented in the Appraisal Institute framework and empirically supported by Sirmans, Macpherson & Zietz, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2005).
4.	Land value rate — Land $/SF is derived from county tax records (market land value ÷ lot SF via Bridge API parcel data). Texas-specific land valuation methodology follows Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas A&M University (TRERC).
5.	Statistical measures — Forecast Standard Deviation (FSD), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Confidence Intervals follow Rigollet, MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (2016); IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013).
6.	Best comp selection — Automatically selected by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions. Comparable selection criteria per IAAO Standard on Mass Appraisal of Real Property (2017).
7.	Data source — MLS data via Bridge API/ACTRIS. Subject to MLS reporting errors and omissions. Net sale price deducts seller-paid buyer closing costs and repair credits (ACTRIS fields).

This report is generated by ALEX Intelligence for licensed real estate professionals and their clients. For ALEX & Client Use Only — Privileged & Confidential.