ALEX COMPREHENSIVE VALUATION
1901 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown, TX 78633
59 Adjustments | ALEX-Selected Comps | 6-Comp Cascade Analysis
Generated: September 15, 2026 07:56 AM CT
Rate Table: v1.0-March2026
For ALEX & Client Use Only — Privileged & Confidential
Property Summary
This report evaluates 1901 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown, TX 78633, a 4-bed / 3-bath, 2,430 SF home built in 2020, situated on a 10,454 SF lot in Lakeside Ph 2. This property is not currently on the market. ALEX analyzed 21 closed sales and selected 6 comps at threshold T11. This is our preliminary valuation. We have not seen the property yet.
Status
Off market
County Value
$487,156
ALEX Value
$487,319
Value Range
$419,740 – $517,281
Comps
6
Confidence
Medium
Pricing Recommendation — Slotting
Recommended list
$474,900
$12,418 below the valuation
Valuation
$487,318
what the comparable sales support
Search ceiling
$475,000
buyers filter on round numbers
Active competition
| Listing | List price | SqFt | DOM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1213 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown TX 78633 | $475,000 | 2566 | 112 | cross-shopped |
| 1513 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown TX 78633 | $650,000 | 3596 | 147 | size +48% (limit 20%) |
| 140 Lake Rim CIR, Georgetown TX 78633 | $710,000 | 2776 | 1 | $256/SF vs $201/SF (+28%, limit 25%) |
How this price was chosen
- Valuation $487,318.
- Nearest cross-shopped listing: 1213 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown TX 78633 at $475,000 (below the valuation by $12,318).
- The search bracket already prices this below that listing.
- Priced at $474,900 to sit under the $475,000 search ceiling — a listing one dollar over a bracket is invisible to every buyer filtering at it.
Slotting is a listing decision, not a valuation. The valuation is what the comparable sales support; the list price positions the property against what a buyer sees beside it. Listings more than 20% different in size are shown but excluded — a buyer shopping this house is not cross-shopping them. Active listings are read live from the MLS feed at the time of this report, never from stored history.
ALEX Valuation
Low
$472,500
0.51% below Recommended
✓ Recommended
$474,900
ALEX optimized price ∙ Balanced days-on-market ∙ Data-supported
High
$506,700
6.70% above Recommended
Statistical Confidence Indicators
Forecast Std. Deviation (FSD)
7.7%
Spread of the values the comps imply for this property (σ ÷ mean). It measures how much these comps agree with each other, not how accurate ALEX is — that is in Model Accuracy below.
Back-test Error
9.3%
Average miss when the adjustment grid is applied back to each comp's own sale price. Six observations, all from this subdivision.
80% Confidence Interval
$439,247 – $535,390
Recommended value ± 1.28 σ of the comp-implied values. Built from these comps; for the model's own measured interval coverage see Model Accuracy below.
Model Accuracy on ALEX Data
How the ALEX valuation model performed on sales it had never seen. These are the model's numbers, not this property's: they say how much to trust the estimate above, and they are reported on every ALEX valuation whether they flatter us or not.
For a property like this one
This property type
7.50%
Single Family Residence — MdAPE over 17,732 held-out sales. MAPE 10.75%, RMSLE 0.1569.
This price band
6.87%
$400,000-600,000 — MdAPE over 4,701 held-out sales. MAPE 8.71%, RMSLE 0.1183.
These are the figures that describe this valuation. The table below is the model across every property type and price band, and is shown for context rather than as a claim about this property.
The model overall
MdAPE
7.73%
Median absolute percentage error. Half of all predictions are closer than this.
MAPE
11.22%
Mean absolute percentage error. Pulled upward by the worst misses, so it always exceeds MdAPE.
RMSLE
0.1619
Root mean squared logarithmic error. Scale-free: a 10% miss counts the same on a $300,000 house as on a $3,000,000 one.
RMSE
$182,429
Root mean squared error, in dollars.
Within 2%
14.25%
Share of predictions inside 2% of the sale price.
Within 5%
34.28%
Share of predictions inside 5% of the sale price.
Interval coverage, measured
| Nominal | Actually contained the sale price | Median band width | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% prediction interval | 90.0% | 65.2% | isotonic width calibration applied |
| 98% prediction interval | 94.7% | 81.6% | isotonic width calibration applied |
A nominal band is a promise; the middle column is what it delivered on the holdout. Where the two differ, the measured figure is the one to use.
Measured blind, off-market, on n = 19,510 held-out sales, a blind 6-month holdout, cut at 2026-03-08, trained on 401,118 rows.
Ensemble: lightgbm, xgboost, catboost, ridge; stacked with ridge; targets time-normalised.
A population forecast standard deviation is not published for this model: the training run does not compute one. The FSD shown for this property is the dispersion of the comparable-implied values, which is a property-level measure and not a model-level one.
Asking Price vs. Sale Price
Of 6 comparable sales, 1 cut the asking price before selling and 3 closed at or above the first ask. The median moved -1.5% from original ask to sale; the largest fall was -5.0%.
| Comparable | Original ask | Final ask | Cut while listed | Closed | $ change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 813 Cedar Lake BLVD sold, 15 days | $535,000 | $535,000 | — | $519,000 | −$16,000 | -3.0% |
| 2. 117 Rock Dock RD sold, 71 days | $525,000 | $499,000 | −$26,000 | $499,000 | −$26,000 | -5.0% |
| 3. 109 Rock Dock RD sold, 27 days | $499,000 | $499,000 | — | $499,000 | +$0 | +0.0% |
| 4. 109 Lake Spring CIR sold, 3 days | $559,000 | $559,000 | — | $559,000 | +$0 | +0.0% |
| 5. 101 Lake Spring CIR sold, 15 days | $549,955 | $549,955 | — | $549,955 | +$0 | +0.0% |
| 6. 1232 Lakeside Ranch RD sold, 49 days | $525,000 | $525,000 | — | $500,000 | −$25,000 | -4.8% |
| 7. 1513 Lakeside Ranch RD still listed, 147 days | — | $650,000 | — | — | — | — |
| 8. 140 Lake Rim CIR still listed, 1 days | — | $710,000 | — | — | — | — |
| 9. 1213 Lakeside Ranch RD still listed, 112 days | — | $475,000 | — | — | — | — |
Change is measured from the ORIGINAL asking price to the closing price — the whole distance travelled, not the discount off the last asking price.
Market Direction
Where the wider market is moving, independent of this property. The comparable sales establish the level; these establish the direction. Local series are shaded.
| FRED MACRO CONTEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Series | Latest | Year over year | Five year |
| Austin-Round Rock MSA house price index ATNHPIUS12420Q · quarterly · as of 2026-04-01 | 506.31 | ▲ 0.34% | ▲ 15.25% |
| Austin MSA unemployment AUST448URN · monthly · as of 2026-07-01 | 4.00% | ▲ 14.29% | ▼ 13.04% |
| Case-Shiller US national home price index CSUSHPINSA · monthly · as of 2026-06-01 | 336.66 | ▲ 1.53% | ▲ 28.93% |
| US median sales price MSPUS · quarterly · as of 2026-04-01 | $410,700 | ▼ 1.30% | ▲ 11.66% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage MORTGAGE30US · weekly · as of 2026-09-10 | 6.76% | ▲ 6.46% | ▲ 136.36% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage MORTGAGE15US · weekly · as of 2026-09-10 | 6.09% | ▲ 10.73% | ▲ 187.26% |
| Housing starts (SAAR, thousands) HOUST · monthly · as of 2026-07-01 | 1,239k | ▼ 13.48% | ▼ 22.56% |
| Building permits (SAAR, thousands) PERMIT · monthly · as of 2026-07-01 | 1,433k | ▲ 2.36% | ▼ 13.99% |
| Existing home sales (SAAR) EXHOSLUSM495S · monthly · as of 2026-08-01 | 3.98M | ▼ 1.24% | — |
| US unemployment UNRATE · monthly · as of 2026-08-01 | 4.10% | ▼ 4.65% | ▼ 24.07% |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED), public series, fetched live. Each row carries its own observation date because the series publish at different frequencies — the Austin MSA index is quarterly.
Valuation Benchmarks
$ Value Comparison
$ Per SF Comparison
| Source | Value | $/SF | vs ALEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALEX | $487,319 | $201/SF | — |
| Tax | $487,156 | $200/SF | -0.0% |
| HouseCanary | $525,271 | $216/SF | +7.8% |
| Zillow | $515,300 | $212/SF | +5.7% |
HouseCanary
$525,271
Low: $492,108High: $558,434
▎ ALEX: $487,319
| FSD | 6.0% |
| Confidence | 94% |
| Range | $492,108 – $558,434 |
Zillow Zestimate
$515,300
Low: $484,382High: $546,218
▎ ALEX: $487,319
| FSD | 6.0% |
| Confidence | 88% |
| Range | $484,382 – $546,218 |
What this means: Alex AVM is trained on 379,565 Austin-area closed sales (last training cutoff April 2026). On 18,750 hold-out homes the model never saw, it was correct within 5% on 89.1% of homes and within 10% on 97.6%. The 68% confidence band shown above was empirically calibrated to land at 69.2% on the most recent forward-holdout cycle (n=4,144 closed sales, 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28) — within the pre-registered ±2 percentage-point accuracy target.
Methodology: Alex AVM (model V11, BQML boosted tree, 905 trees, 241 features). Point-prediction calibration metrics — MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), Within-5%, Within-10% — reported per MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (Rigollet, 2016) and IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013). Per-property confidence interval via split-conformal Mondrian calibration on V11 residuals (Vovk-Shafer-Romano, 2005); paired-rolling regime (V12 Lever #1 v3, promoted to production 2026-04-30): 6-month calibration window × 2-month forward validation × 1-month inter-window gap (settlement-latency buffer, disjointness enforced by ASSERT). Mondrian partitioning by ws3 cluster × predicted-price decile, n-floor 160 per cell with ALL|ALL fallback. Monthly auto-recalibration via BQ scheduled query (transfer config 69ee9417, fires 1st of month 09:00 UTC) absorbs sampling-noise draws across cycles. Pre-registered α_cal=0.26 calibration-window drift buffer carried verbatim from v1. Cycle-1 OVERALL coverage 69.16% on n=4,144 (delta +1.16pp from nominal 68%, within ±2pp band, binomial 95% half-width ±1.42pp). Final promotion contingent on 3-cycle continuity (Lock §3 row 3); cycles 2 (May 1) and 3 (Jun 1) pending.
Disclosed conditional-coverage caveats: Per-segment cycle-1 (2026-04-30) coverage on the val window 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28: austin_core 70.13% on n=154; ranches 74.16% on n=89 (rural properties have heavy-tailed residuals; CIs are conservatively wide); lake_travis 78.57% on n=42; sun_city 64.52% on n=31; unclustered_fallback 68.95% on n=3,816. Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage by theorem (Vovk-Shafer-Romano 2005); per-segment conditional coverage is subject to finite-sample sampling noise and is re-measured every cycle. Cycle-2 and cycle-3 numbers will refresh this caveat block.
New construction note: HouseCanary and Zillow rely on historical transaction records and tax-assessment data, so their estimates can lag by months on newly-built homes lacking a recorded sale history; Alex AVM also incorporates live MLS listing features for the subject property.
Reproducibility: calibration script
Methodology: Alex AVM (model V11, BQML boosted tree, 905 trees, 241 features). Point-prediction calibration metrics — MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), Within-5%, Within-10% — reported per MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (Rigollet, 2016) and IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013). Per-property confidence interval via split-conformal Mondrian calibration on V11 residuals (Vovk-Shafer-Romano, 2005); paired-rolling regime (V12 Lever #1 v3, promoted to production 2026-04-30): 6-month calibration window × 2-month forward validation × 1-month inter-window gap (settlement-latency buffer, disjointness enforced by ASSERT). Mondrian partitioning by ws3 cluster × predicted-price decile, n-floor 160 per cell with ALL|ALL fallback. Monthly auto-recalibration via BQ scheduled query (transfer config 69ee9417, fires 1st of month 09:00 UTC) absorbs sampling-noise draws across cycles. Pre-registered α_cal=0.26 calibration-window drift buffer carried verbatim from v1. Cycle-1 OVERALL coverage 69.16% on n=4,144 (delta +1.16pp from nominal 68%, within ±2pp band, binomial 95% half-width ±1.42pp). Final promotion contingent on 3-cycle continuity (Lock §3 row 3); cycles 2 (May 1) and 3 (Jun 1) pending.
Disclosed conditional-coverage caveats: Per-segment cycle-1 (2026-04-30) coverage on the val window 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28: austin_core 70.13% on n=154; ranches 74.16% on n=89 (rural properties have heavy-tailed residuals; CIs are conservatively wide); lake_travis 78.57% on n=42; sun_city 64.52% on n=31; unclustered_fallback 68.95% on n=3,816. Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage by theorem (Vovk-Shafer-Romano 2005); per-segment conditional coverage is subject to finite-sample sampling noise and is re-measured every cycle. Cycle-2 and cycle-3 numbers will refresh this caveat block.
New construction note: HouseCanary and Zillow rely on historical transaction records and tax-assessment data, so their estimates can lag by months on newly-built homes lacking a recorded sale history; Alex AVM also incorporates live MLS listing features for the subject property.
Reproducibility: calibration script
V12_LEVER1_CALIBRATE_QUANTILES.sh; validation script V12_LEVER1_VALIDATE_COVERAGE.sh; monthly scheduled query transfer-config 69ee9417 (us-central1). Hover the MAPE row above for this listing's individualized FSD value.ALEX AI — 0 features · 0 trees · MAPE 0%
ALEX AI Valuation unavailable for this subject.
HouseCanary
HouseCanary is an institutional-grade AVM platform used by banks, hedge funds, and iBuyers. It applies machine learning across 40+ years of transaction data at the census block level. HouseCanary reports CL* and FSD*, emphasizing statistical precision for institutional underwriting and portfolio analysis. Best used as the institutional precision benchmark.
Zillow Zestimate
Zillow is the most widely recognized consumer real estate platform in the United States. Its Zestimate® is what buyers and sellers most commonly reference when forming initial price expectations. Zillow publishes a Confidence Level (CL*) and FSD* with each estimate. Best used as a consumer perception benchmark.
TAX DATA
The 2026 total market value is $487,156, compared to $536,079 in 2025, a decrease of 9.1% (−$48,923). Improvement value moved −$36,423 and land value −$12,500.
| MARKET VALUE COMPARISON — 2026 vs 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2025 | $ Change 2025→2026 |
% Change | |
| Improvement Value | $368,656 | $405,079 | −$36,423 | ▼ 9.0% |
| Land Value | $118,500 | $131,000 | −$12,500 | ▼ 9.5% |
| Total Market Value | $487,156 | $536,079 | −$48,923 | ▼ 9.1% |
MARKET VALUE BREAKDOWN
Source: cad:WCAD. Williamson and Travis parcels use the certified CAD market value; other counties use Bridge API public records (parcels + assessments).
Total = Improvement + Land. Both columns are drawn from a single certified roll year each.
Annual property tax depends on the buyer's exemption profile (homestead, over-65, disabled veteran, agricultural, etc.) and is not displayed here.
Comparable Sales Summary
Selected Comparable Properties
Cascade target met at 6 comparables. Use Change to override any property, then press Selection Finalized to regenerate with your final set.
- 1813 Cedar Lake BLVD$519,000 · 2,608 SF
- 2117 Rock Dock RD$488,000 · 2,449 SF
- 3109 Rock Dock RD$498,500 · 2,636 SF
- 4109 Lake Spring CIR$557,600 · 2,803 SF
- 5101 Lake Spring CIR$549,955 · 2,626 SF
- 61232 Lakeside Ranch RD$496,156 · 2,812 SF
Sales Analyzed
21
Comps Selected
6
Median Net Sale
$519,000
Median SF
2,636 SF
Median $/SF
$199.00
DOM
27
| Address | Close Date | SF | YB | Bd/Ba | Net Sale | $/SF | DOM | Swap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 813 Cedar Lake BLVD | 2026-08-19 | 2,608 SF | 2020 | 4/3 | $519,000 | $199.00 | 27 | |
| 117 Rock Dock RD | 2026-07-24 | 2,449 SF | 2020 | 4/2 | $488,000 | $199.27 | 53 | |
| 109 Rock Dock RD | 2026-08-28 | 2,636 SF | 2019 | 4/3 | $498,500 | $189.11 | 18 | |
| 109 Lake Spring CIR | 2026-08-17 | 2,803 SF | 2016 | 4/4 | $557,600 | $198.93 | 29 | |
| 101 Lake Spring CIR | 2026-04-30 | 2,626 SF | 2024 | 4/4 | $549,955 | $209.43 | 138 | |
| 1232 Lakeside Ranch RD | 2026-04-15 | 2,812 SF | 2016 | 4/3 | $496,156 | $176.44 | 153 |
Comp Detail Pages
Comp 1: 813 Cedar Lake BLVD
27 days ago
Property Specs
| Living Area | 2,608 SF |
| Year Built | 2020 |
| Bed / Bath | 4 / 3 |
| Story | Single |
| Pool | No |
| Lot Size | 14,810 SF |
| View | ['None'] |
| Condition | ['Resale'] |
Sale Data
| Close Date | 2026-08-19 |
| Original List | $535,000 |
| Last List | $535,000 |
| Close Price | $519,000 |
| Sale-to-List | 97.0% |
| Concessions | — |
| Repairs | — |
| Net Sale Price | $519,000 |
| Net $/SF | $199.00 |
| Adj Net $/SF | $170.78 |
Net Sale Price
$519,000
$199.00/SF
ALEX Adjustment
$-73,600
Agent Adjustment
$0
Indicated Value
$445,400
$170.78/SF
Public Remarks
Discover unparalleled comfort and sophisticated living in this charming Georgetown residence. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this four sides brick home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a dedicated study, a spacious flex room, and an extended two car garage. Rich wood look tile flooring welcomes you through a grand entry into an elegant study with French doors, built in shelving, tray ceilings, and plush carpeting. The heart of the home is the open concept living area, seamlessly connecting the chef's kitchen with the spacious family room featuring a cozy gas fireplace and the dining area, filled with natural light and vaulted ceilings. The kitchen is designed for entertaining and everyday living, featuring a large granite island, matching granite countertops, stainless steel appliances including the dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator, recessed lighting, pull out shelving, and abundant workspace. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey. The spacious primary suite offers wood look flooring, vaulted ceilings, and a large walk in closet. The luxurious primary bath includes dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate walk in shower. Two additional bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations, while the large flex room offers endless possibilities as a game room, media room, second living area, or home gym. A functional mudroom with built ins leads to the laundry room. Outside, enjoy a private backyard with a covered patio, mature shade trees, and a fenced yard. Located in a desirable Georgetown neighborhood, this home offers convenient access to a scenic lake via a neighborhood walking trail. HEB, Sprouts, shopping, dining, and nearby services are just minutes away, providing the perfect balance of nature and convenience. [Some listing remarks were omitted: they described who the property would suit rather than the property itself. Full remarks are available in the MLS.]
Adjustments
| SITE | |
| Lot Size — by AI Lot size: the comparable's lot is 4,356 sq ft larger than the subject's (14,810 vs 10,454), so −$25,000 is applied at the land rate (about $5.74 per sq ft). | AI: $-25,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Market Timing — by AI Market timing: +$6,423 applied to bring the comparable into line with the subject. | AI: +$6,423 |
Agent comments | |
| STRUCTURAL | |
| Garage Spaces — by AI | AI: +$32,697 |
Agent comments | |
| Living Area — by AI Living area: the comparable is 178 sq ft larger than the subject (2,608 vs 2,430), so −$30,605 is applied (about $172 per sq ft). | AI: $-30,605 |
Agent comments | |
| OUTDOOR | |
| Mature Trees — by AI Mature trees: the comparable has mature trees and the subject does not, so −$5,190 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,190 |
Agent comments | |
| INTERIOR | |
| Fireplace — by AI Fireplace: the comparable has a fireplace and the subject does not, so −$5,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Flooring — by AI Flooring: the comparable has superior flooring and the subject does not, so −$12,975 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-12,975 |
Agent comments | |
| Kitchen — by AI Kitchen: the comparable has a superior kitchen and the subject does not, so −$12,975 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-12,975 |
Agent comments | |
| Media Room — by AI Media room: the comparable has a media room and the subject does not, so −$7,785 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-7,785 |
Agent comments | |
| Mud Room — by AI Mud room: the comparable has a mud room and the subject does not, so −$3,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-3,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Soaking Tub — by AI Soaking tub: the comparable has a soaking tub and the subject does not, so −$5,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Study / Office — by AI | AI: $-5,190 |
Agent comments | |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | $-73,600 |
| Agent Adjustments | |
|
Condition / Updates — by Agent |
$0
|
|
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Amenities / Features — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Other (describe below) — by Agent |
$0
|
| Agent Total | $0 |
| Indicated Value | $445,400 |
Adjustment Chart
Comp 2: 117 Rock Dock RD
53 days ago
Property Specs
| Living Area | 2,449 SF |
| Year Built | 2020 |
| Bed / Bath | 4 / 2 |
| Story | Single |
| Pool | No |
| Lot Size | 10,454 SF |
| View | ['None'] |
| Condition | ['Resale'] |
Sale Data
| Close Date | 2026-07-24 |
| Original List | $525,000 |
| Last List | $499,000 |
| Close Price | $499,000 |
| Sale-to-List | 100.0% |
| Concessions | $10,000 |
| Repairs | $1,000 |
| Net Sale Price | $488,000 |
| Net $/SF | $199.27 |
| Adj Net $/SF | $203.52 |
Net Sale Price
$488,000
$199.27/SF
ALEX Adjustment
+$10,429
Agent Adjustment
$0
Indicated Value
$498,429
$203.52/SF
Public Remarks
NEW PRICE AND THIS IS A DEAL!! This home sits in one of those neighborhoods that folks just love--quiet, friendly, & close to everything that makes Georgetown special. Just a few blocks away,inside the neighborhood, there's a special entry to the Lake Georgetown hike & bike trails...access to the 26.5 miles Goodwater Loop Trail.. Perfect for morning walks, weekend bike rides & catching sunset views. The home sits on a quiet half-circle street w/very little traffic, something the Seller loves for the peace & safety it brings. Inside, you'll find fresh paint, updated lighting wood grain tile in the common areas, & fresh decorative tile flooring in all 3 bedrooms plus 2 flex rooms that can easily serve as a 4th bedroom, office, nursery, or playroom. The kitchen opens to the dining & family room & features granite counters, stainless steel appliances & a walk-in pantry with frosted glass insert. A triple sliding door in the family room leads to the extended covered patio, 3 custom-built decks, custom built trellis panels & a removable country style 10 ft. stock tank pool with a high quality pump. Perfect for porch sitting & enjoying the outdoors. Primary suite offers a bay window, a custom shiplap accent wall , 2 large walk-in closets, dual vanities, a garden tub, & separate shower. Secondary bedrooms share a full bath, & both have /charming touches like wainscoating & one bedroom has a built-in reading nook to add character. The garage has 2 cedar plank walls to give the vibe of home gym, workshop, or even a "man cave" Also enjoy a short walk to 2 nearby pocket parks and the local elementary school. You can also walk to the local grocery store, other shops, & restaurants. We hope you enjoy the charm that only Georgetown can exude. You are so close to the downtown district with local parades, amazing Christmas lighting in that season, incredible restaurants and shops & so much more!
Adjustments
| SITE | |
| Market Timing — by AI Market timing: −$9,724 applied to bring the comparable into line with the subject. | AI: $-9,724 |
Agent comments | |
| STRUCTURAL | |
| Full Bathrooms — by AI | AI: +$12,200 |
Agent comments | |
| Garage Spaces — by AI | AI: +$30,744 |
Agent comments | |
| Living Area — by AI Living area: the comparable is 19 sq ft larger than the subject (2,449 vs 2,430), so −$3,271 is applied (about $172 per sq ft). | AI: $-3,271 |
Agent comments | |
| Workshop — by AI Workshop: the comparable has a workshop and the subject does not, so −$4,880 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-4,880 |
Agent comments | |
| INTERIOR | |
| Fireplace — by AI Fireplace: the comparable has a fireplace and the subject does not, so −$4,880 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-4,880 |
Agent comments | |
| Soaking Tub — by AI Soaking tub: the comparable has a soaking tub and the subject does not, so −$4,880 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-4,880 |
Agent comments | |
| Study / Office — by AI | AI: $-4,880 |
Agent comments | |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | +$10,429 |
| Agent Adjustments | |
|
Condition / Updates — by Agent |
$0
|
|
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Amenities / Features — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Other (describe below) — by Agent |
$0
|
| Agent Total | $0 |
| Indicated Value | $498,429 |
Adjustment Chart
Comp 3: 109 Rock Dock RD
18 days ago
Property Specs
| Living Area | 2,636 SF |
| Year Built | 2019 |
| Bed / Bath | 4 / 3 |
| Story | Single |
| Pool | No |
| Lot Size | 9,148 SF |
| View | ['Neighborhood'] |
| Condition | ['Resale'] |
Sale Data
| Close Date | 2026-08-28 |
| Original List | $499,000 |
| Last List | $499,000 |
| Close Price | $499,000 |
| Sale-to-List | 100.0% |
| Concessions | — |
| Repairs | $500 |
| Net Sale Price | $498,500 |
| Net $/SF | $189.11 |
| Adj Net $/SF | $184.87 |
Net Sale Price
$498,500
$189.11/SF
ALEX Adjustment
$-11,181
Agent Adjustment
$0
Indicated Value
$487,319
$184.87/SF
Public Remarks
This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 3 FULL bathroom home is located in one of the area’s most sought-after neighborhoods, offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and location. The spacious open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a large kitchen with a generous center island overlooking the dining and living areas. Need extra flexibility? Working from home is a breeze with the dedicated office/study, providing a quiet space for productivity or hobbies. Located just minutes from Lake Georgetown, you’ll enjoy easy access to outdoor recreation including, boating, camping, hiking, and fishing. The neighborhood amenities include a playground and dog park, creating a welcoming community for all ages. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a spacious, versatile home in an exceptional location! [Some listing remarks were omitted: they described who the property would suit rather than the property itself. Full remarks are available in the MLS.]
Adjustments
| SITE | |
| Lot Size — by AI Lot size: the comparable's lot is 1,306 sq ft smaller than the subject's (9,147 vs 10,454), so +$14,812 is applied at the land rate (about $11 per sq ft). | AI: +$14,812 |
Agent comments | |
| Market Timing — by AI Market timing: +$6,170 applied to bring the comparable into line with the subject. | AI: +$6,170 |
Agent comments | |
| STRUCTURAL | |
| Garage Spaces — by AI | AI: +$31,406 |
Agent comments | |
| Living Area — by AI Living area: the comparable is 206 sq ft larger than the subject (2,636 vs 2,430), so −$33,659 is applied (about $163 per sq ft). | AI: $-33,659 |
Agent comments | |
| Year Built / Age — by AI | AI: +$4,985 |
Agent comments | |
| INTERIOR | |
| Flooring — by AI Flooring: the comparable has superior flooring and the subject does not, so −$12,462 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-12,462 |
Agent comments | |
| Kitchen — by AI Kitchen: the comparable has a superior kitchen and the subject does not, so −$12,462 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-12,462 |
Agent comments | |
| Soaking Tub — by AI Soaking tub: the comparable has a soaking tub and the subject does not, so −$4,985 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-4,985 |
Agent comments | |
| Study / Office — by AI | AI: $-4,985 |
Agent comments | |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | $-11,181 |
| Agent Adjustments | |
|
Condition / Updates — by Agent |
$0
|
|
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Amenities / Features — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Other (describe below) — by Agent |
$0
|
| Agent Total | $0 |
| Indicated Value | $487,319 |
Adjustment Chart
Comp 4: 109 Lake Spring CIR
29 days ago
Property Specs
| Living Area | 2,803 SF |
| Year Built | 2016 |
| Bed / Bath | 4 / 4 |
| Story | Single |
| Pool | No |
| Lot Size | 11,326 SF |
| View | ['None'] |
| Condition | ['Resale'] |
Sale Data
| Close Date | 2026-08-17 |
| Original List | $559,000 |
| Last List | $559,000 |
| Close Price | $559,000 |
| Sale-to-List | 100.0% |
| Concessions | — |
| Repairs | $1,400 |
| Net Sale Price | $557,600 |
| Net $/SF | $198.93 |
| Adj Net $/SF | $184.55 |
Net Sale Price
$557,600
$198.93/SF
ALEX Adjustment
$-40,319
Agent Adjustment
$0
Indicated Value
$517,281
$184.55/SF
Public Remarks
A former Perry model home built to be a showplace, now a place to live. The home has been perfectly kept and reimagined by the sellers. It is the best in the neighborhood, built out of brick and quartz and light. The entry hall is wide and flows to the elegant living area. The home is on one floor with eight-foot doors, high ceilings and wood look tile throughout the home. No carpet except two closets. The kitchen, living room and dining area are one open area with a glass-enclosed wine/spirits display feature, vaulted ceiling, quartz island, upgraded cabinetry/ backsplash, under cabinet lighting, electric shades and whole home sound system exemplifying the upgraded status of the home. Gutters and filtration systems add to the upgrades. The living room extends outdoors through a triple sliding glass wall onto a covered patio. The covered patio has an audio zone and a cedar privacy screen. The privacy fencing is framed by Leyland Cypress perfectly positioned on an oversized lot. The Upgrade List is wonderful. Those items installed by the owners with available receipts approx $30,895. Jo Ann Ford Elementary, the highest ranked school in GISD, is a short walk. Lakeside Park and Lake Georgetown entry points all feature trails. The Lake is a Corp of Engineer's lake managed by the park service. With low 1.83 taxes, and in better than new condition, this is the best Georgetown buy under $560K.
Adjustments
| SITE | |
| Lot Size — by AI Lot size: the comparable's lot is 871 sq ft larger than the subject's (11,325 vs 10,454), so −$9,875 is applied at the land rate (about $11 per sq ft). | AI: $-9,875 |
Agent comments | |
| Market Timing — by AI Market timing: +$6,901 applied to bring the comparable into line with the subject. | AI: +$6,901 |
Agent comments | |
| STRUCTURAL | |
| Full Bathrooms — by AI | AI: $-11,152 |
Agent comments | |
| Garage Spaces — by AI | AI: +$35,129 |
Agent comments | |
| Living Area — by AI Living area: the comparable is 373 sq ft larger than the subject (2,803 vs 2,430), so −$64,109 is applied (about $172 per sq ft). | AI: $-64,109 |
Agent comments | |
| Year Built / Age — by AI | AI: +$22,304 |
Agent comments | |
| INTERIOR | |
| Flooring — by AI Flooring: the comparable has superior flooring and the subject does not, so −$13,940 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-13,940 |
Agent comments | |
| Home Automation — by AI Home automation: the comparable has home automation and the subject does not, so −$5,576 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,576 |
Agent comments | |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | $-40,319 |
| Agent Adjustments | |
|
Condition / Updates — by Agent |
$0
|
|
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Amenities / Features — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Other (describe below) — by Agent |
$0
|
| Agent Total | $0 |
| Indicated Value | $517,281 |
Adjustment Chart
Comp 5: 101 Lake Spring CIR
138 days ago
Property Specs
| Living Area | 2,626 SF |
| Year Built | 2024 |
| Bed / Bath | 4 / 4 |
| Story | Single |
| Pool | No |
| Lot Size | 11,761 SF |
| View | ['None'] |
| Condition | ['Updated/Remodeled'] |
Sale Data
| Close Date | 2026-04-30 |
| Original List | $549,955 |
| Last List | $549,955 |
| Close Price | $549,955 |
| Sale-to-List | 100.0% |
| Concessions | — |
| Repairs | — |
| Net Sale Price | $549,955 |
| Net $/SF | $209.43 |
| Adj Net $/SF | $159.84 |
Net Sale Price
$549,955
$209.43/SF
ALEX Adjustment
$-130,215
Agent Adjustment
$0
Indicated Value
$419,740
$159.84/SF
Public Remarks
Don’t waste time wondering what this amazing, updated home looks like—you can tour it right now! We offer self-guided tours; simply paste the link(moj.so/9fe436a009) into your browser and follow the steps to schedule your visit. Looking for a home that offers convenience, comfort, and a peaceful setting? Welcome to 101 Lake Spring Circle in Georgetown’s sought-after Lakeside community. This thoughtfully designed 4-bedroom plus study, 3.5-bath home sits on a spacious 0.27-acre lot and features energy-efficient upgrades throughout. Step inside to find high ceilings, 8-foot doors, and an open-concept layout filled with natural light. A private study with coffered ceilings and a true guest suite add flexibility and function. The home features luxury vinyl plank flooring, tile in wet areas, and upgraded carpet in the bedrooms. The living area centers around a cozy fireplace and flows seamlessly into a kitchen built for gathering, complete with quartz countertops, a large center island with breakfast bar seating, gas cooktop, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, abundant storage, a walk-in pantry, and a mudroom with built-ins. The primary suite offers dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and generous storage. Secondary bedrooms share a Jack-and-Jill bath, while the guest suite includes a private bath and direct garage access. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio overlooking a private, fenced backyard with a gas stub ready for grilling or entertaining. The 3-car garage offers extra depth for storage or a workshop. Located just a short walk to Woodlake Park and minutes from Lake Georgetown, you’ll have easy access to trails and water activities. With a low HOA, no MUD tax, and close proximity to shopping, dining, and Georgetown ISD schools, this home offers both lifestyle and location.
Adjustments
| SITE | |
| Lot Size — by AI Lot size: the comparable's lot is 1,306 sq ft larger than the subject's (11,761 vs 10,454), so −$14,813 is applied at the land rate (about $11 per sq ft). | AI: $-14,813 |
Agent comments | |
| Market Timing — by AI Market timing: −$15,192 applied to bring the comparable into line with the subject. | AI: $-15,192 |
Agent comments | |
| STRUCTURAL | |
| Full Bathrooms — by AI | AI: $-10,999 |
Agent comments | |
| Living Area — by AI Living area: the comparable is 196 sq ft larger than the subject (2,626 vs 2,430), so −$35,465 is applied (about $181 per sq ft). | AI: $-35,465 |
Agent comments | |
| Workshop — by AI Workshop: the comparable has a workshop and the subject does not, so −$5,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Year Built / Age — by AI | AI: $-21,998 |
Agent comments | |
| INTERIOR | |
| Fireplace — by AI Fireplace: the comparable has a fireplace and the subject does not, so −$5,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Flooring — by AI Flooring: the subject has superior flooring and the comparable does not, so +$5,500 is added to the comparable. | AI: +$5,500 |
Agent comments | |
| Kitchen — by AI Kitchen: the comparable has a superior kitchen and the subject does not, so −$13,749 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-13,749 |
Agent comments | |
| Mud Room — by AI Mud room: the comparable has a mud room and the subject does not, so −$3,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-3,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Soaking Tub — by AI Soaking tub: the comparable has a soaking tub and the subject does not, so −$5,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-5,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Study / Office — by AI | AI: $-5,500 |
Agent comments | |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | $-130,215 |
| Agent Adjustments | |
|
Condition / Updates — by Agent |
$0
|
|
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Amenities / Features — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Other (describe below) — by Agent |
$0
|
| Agent Total | $0 |
| Indicated Value | $419,740 |
Adjustment Chart
Comp 6: 1232 Lakeside Ranch RD
153 days ago
Property Specs
| Living Area | 2,812 SF |
| Year Built | 2016 |
| Bed / Bath | 4 / 3 |
| Story | Single |
| Pool | No |
| Lot Size | 8,276 SF |
| View | ['None'] |
| Condition | ['Resale'] |
Sale Data
| Close Date | 2026-04-15 |
| Original List | $525,000 |
| Last List | $525,000 |
| Close Price | $500,000 |
| Sale-to-List | 95.2% |
| Concessions | — |
| Repairs | $3,844 |
| Net Sale Price | $496,156 |
| Net $/SF | $176.44 |
| Adj Net $/SF | $163.16 |
Net Sale Price
$496,156
$176.44/SF
ALEX Adjustment
$-37,360
Agent Adjustment
$0
Indicated Value
$458,796
$163.16/SF
Public Remarks
Beautifully designed and ideally located less than 5 miles from Lake Georgetown, this four-sided brick home offers a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. As you walk in, you’re welcomed by tray ceilings and an open living and dining area filled with natural light from an abundance of large windows, all complemented by plantation shutters throughout. Wood-look tile flooring flows through the main living spaces and leads into the kitchen, which features quartz countertops, white cabinetry, and a spacious island overlooking the living area—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Just off the entry, a front office with built-in cabinets provides a functional workspace, while a dedicated media room offers a comfortable place to unwind. The primary suite serves as a private retreat with a bath featuring a soaking tub, separate shower, and dual sinks. Conveniently located just 2 miles from H-E-B, Starbucks, medical offices, and nearby shopping, this home offers both lifestyle and location—don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours. [Some listing remarks were omitted: they described who the property would suit rather than the property itself. Full remarks are available in the MLS.]
Adjustments
| SITE | |
| Lot Size — by AI Lot size: the comparable's lot is 2,178 sq ft smaller than the subject's (8,276 vs 10,454), so +$24,688 is applied at the land rate (about $11 per sq ft). | AI: +$24,688 |
Agent comments | |
| Market Timing — by AI Market timing: −$13,705 applied to bring the comparable into line with the subject. | AI: $-13,705 |
Agent comments | |
| STRUCTURAL | |
| Garage Spaces — by AI | AI: +$31,258 |
Agent comments | |
| Living Area — by AI Living area: the comparable is 382 sq ft larger than the subject (2,812 vs 2,430), so −$58,234 is applied (about $152 per sq ft). | AI: $-58,234 |
Agent comments | |
| Year Built / Age — by AI | AI: +$19,846 |
Agent comments | |
| INTERIOR | |
| Flooring — by AI Flooring: the comparable has superior flooring and the subject does not, so −$12,404 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-12,404 |
Agent comments | |
| Kitchen — by AI Kitchen: the comparable has a superior kitchen and the subject does not, so −$12,404 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-12,404 |
Agent comments | |
| Media Room — by AI Media room: the comparable has a media room and the subject does not, so −$7,442 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-7,442 |
Agent comments | |
| Plantation Shutters — by AI Plantation shutters: the comparable has plantation shutters and the subject does not, so −$4,000 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-4,000 |
Agent comments | |
| Soaking Tub — by AI Soaking tub: the comparable has a soaking tub and the subject does not, so −$4,962 is removed from the comparable. | AI: $-4,962 |
Agent comments | |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | $-37,360 |
| Agent Adjustments | |
|
Condition / Updates — by Agent |
$0
|
|
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Amenities / Features — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent |
$0
|
|
Other (describe below) — by Agent |
$0
|
| Agent Total | $0 |
| Indicated Value | $458,796 |
Adjustment Chart
Where the Comparables Are
1813 Cedar Lake BLVD$519,000
2117 Rock Dock RD$499,000
3109 Rock Dock RD$499,000
4109 Lake Spring CIR$559,000
5101 Lake Spring CIR$549,955
61232 Lakeside Ranch RD$500,000
Drawn from recorded coordinates. Distances are to scale; the dashed lines run from the subject to each comparable.
Property-Specific Adjustments
Conditions of the property's access that the comparable-sales analysis does not capture, because they are facts about this parcel rather than differences between it and a comparable.
ROAD_SURFACE_UNKNOWN — Street surface could not be established from the MLS fields, the remarks or the photographs. The unpaved adjustment is NOT applied. Confirm on site or from the survey; if unpaved it is -$5,000.
ROAD_STATUS_UNKNOWN — Whether the road is public or private could not be established. The private-road adjustment is NOT applied. If private with no maintenance agreement it is -$4,500.
Adjusted Value Summary
Agent adjustments entered above are reflected in the Indicated Value column below.
| Adjustment | 813 Cedar Lake BLVD | 117 Rock Dock RD | 109 Rock Dock RD | 109 Lake Spring CIR | 101 Lake Spring CIR | 1232 Lakeside Ranch RD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | |
| Sale Price | $519,000 | $499,000 | $499,000 | $559,000 | $549,955 | $500,000 |
| Buyer Closing Costs | — | $-10,000 | — | — | — | — |
| Repairs | — | $-1,000 | $-500 | $-1,400 | — | $-3,844 |
| Net Sale Price | $519,000 | $488,000 | $498,500 | $557,600 | $549,955 | $496,156 |
| Net $/SF | $199.00 | $199.27 | $189.11 | $198.93 | $209.43 | $176.44 |
| SITE | ||||||
| Lot Size — by AI | $-25,000 | — | +$14,812 | $-9,875 | $-14,813 | +$24,688 |
| Market Timing — by AI | +$6,423 | $-9,724 | +$6,170 | +$6,901 | $-15,192 | $-13,705 |
| STRUCTURAL | ||||||
| Garage Spaces — by AI | +$32,697 | +$30,744 | +$31,406 | +$35,129 | — | +$31,258 |
| Living Area — by AI | $-30,605 | $-3,271 | $-33,659 | $-64,109 | $-35,465 | $-58,234 |
| OUTDOOR | ||||||
| Mature Trees — by AI | $-5,190 | — | — | — | — | — |
| INTERIOR | ||||||
| Fireplace — by AI | $-5,000 | $-4,880 | — | — | $-5,000 | — |
| Flooring — by AI | $-12,975 | — | $-12,462 | $-13,940 | +$5,500 | $-12,404 |
| Kitchen — by AI | $-12,975 | — | $-12,462 | — | $-13,749 | $-12,404 |
| Media Room — by AI | $-7,785 | — | — | — | — | $-7,442 |
| Mud Room — by AI | $-3,000 | — | — | — | $-3,000 | — |
| Soaking Tub — by AI | $-5,000 | $-4,880 | $-4,985 | — | $-5,000 | $-4,962 |
| Study / Office — by AI | $-5,190 | $-4,880 | $-4,985 | — | $-5,500 | — |
| STRUCTURAL | ||||||
| Full Bathrooms — by AI | — | +$12,200 | — | $-11,152 | $-10,999 | — |
| Workshop — by AI | — | $-4,880 | — | — | $-5,000 | — |
| Year Built / Age — by AI | — | — | +$4,985 | +$22,304 | $-21,998 | +$19,846 |
| INTERIOR | ||||||
| Home Automation — by AI | — | — | — | $-5,576 | — | — |
| Plantation Shutters — by AI | — | — | — | — | — | $-4,000 |
| Agent Adjustments | ||||||
| Condition / Updates — by Agent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| View Quality / Orientation — by Agent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Amenities / Features — by Agent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other (describe below) — by Agent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Agent Total | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| ALEX Total Adjustments | $-73,600 | +$10,429 | $-11,181 | $-40,319 | $-130,215 | $-37,360 |
| Indicated Value | $445,400 | $498,429 | $487,319 | $517,281 | $419,740 | $458,796 |
Green = upward adjustment (comp inferior to subject).
Red = downward adjustment (comp superior to subject).
Only rows with |adj| > $500 in at least one comp are shown.
Adjustment rates sourced from Appraisal Institute, TRERC, Fannie Mae, and ALEX current rate table.
Red = downward adjustment (comp superior to subject).
Only rows with |adj| > $500 in at least one comp are shown.
Adjustment rates sourced from Appraisal Institute, TRERC, Fannie Mae, and ALEX current rate table.
Comp Selection Cascade
| Tier | Geography | Lookback | Year Built | SF Range | Sales Found |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T0 | Same Street | 180 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 0 |
| T1 | Subdivision + Phase | 90 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 3 |
| T2 | Subdivision + View(exact) | 90 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 3 |
| T3 | Subdivision | 90 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 4 |
| T4 | Subdivision + Phase | 90 days | ±4 yrs | ±20% | 3 |
| T5 | Subdivision + View(exact) | 90 days | ±4 yrs | ±20% | 4 |
| T6 | Subdivision | 90 days | ±4 yrs | ±20% | 5 |
| T7 | Subdivision + Phase | 180 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 3 |
| T8 | Subdivision + View(exact) | 180 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 3 |
| T9 | Subdivision | 180 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 4 |
| T10 | Subdivision + Phase | 180 days | ±4 yrs | ±20% | 3 |
| T11 ✓ Selected | Subdivision + View(exact) | 153 days (exact) | ±4 yrs | ±20% | 6 |
| T12 | Subdivision | 180 days | ±4 yrs | ±20% | 7 |
| T13 | Subdivision + Phase | 270 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 3 |
| T14 | Subdivision + View(exact) | 270 days | ±3 yrs | ±15% | 5 |
Methodology & Audit Trail
Comp Pool Exclusion Funnel
| Raw Fetched | 21 |
| − Missing Data | −0 |
| − Poor Condition | −0 |
| Pool After Pre-filter | 21 |
| Comps Selected (T11) | 6 |
Raw Fetched — All closed sales in the same subdivision and city within the lookback window.
Missing Data — Sales removed because living area or close price was not recorded (required for adjustment math).
Poor Condition — Sales rated Fair or Poor condition; not valid comps for a standard-condition subject.
Pool After Pre-filter — Eligible sales remaining after removing incomplete and distressed records.
Comps Selected — Final comps chosen by the cascade algorithm at the selected tier.
Missing Data — Sales removed because living area or close price was not recorded (required for adjustment math).
Poor Condition — Sales rated Fair or Poor condition; not valid comps for a standard-condition subject.
Pool After Pre-filter — Eligible sales remaining after removing incomplete and distressed records.
Comps Selected — Final comps chosen by the cascade algorithm at the selected tier.
Statistics for this valuation
| Statistic | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Comps selected | 6 | How many closed sales the cascade accepted for this property. |
| Forecast uncertainty (FSD) | ±10.3% | One standard deviation of expected error, as a percentage of the estimate. The model’s statement of how far off it expects to be on THIS property. |
| 95% prediction interval | ±38.9% | The band the sale price should fall inside about 95 times in 100. population (66148 repeat-sale pairs) — 6 comps cannot support 95% coverage |
| 98% prediction interval | ±53.8% | The same promise at a higher confidence level. population (66148 repeat-sale pairs) — 6 comps cannot support 98% coverage |
| Leave-one-out back-test | 7.2% avg error | Each comp is held out in turn and predicted from the others; this is the average error of those predictions. It is computed from THIS property’s comps, not from a model-wide test. |
| Adjusted-value spread | 20.0% | Distance from the lowest to the highest adjusted comp value, as a percentage of the median. A wide spread means the comps disagree. |
| Comp $/SF dispersion | 5.7% | Coefficient of variation of the comps’ price per square foot. Lower means the selected sales are genuinely alike. |
| Market-timing carry | $-19,126 | Total dollars of adjustment applied to carry the comps from their sale dates to the valuation date, using the repeat-sales index. |
| Confidence basis | comp tier quality, back-test error, comp recency, adjustment magnitude | Which confidence factors could actually be measured for this property. A factor with no data is excluded rather than guessed. |
| Factors measured | 4 | How many of the four confidence factors contributed. Fewer factors means a score built on less evidence. |
These figures describe THIS property. They are computed from the comps selected above. Where a prediction interval is marked as coming from the population, it is because the number of comps cannot support that coverage level — with n comps the highest coverage the sample alone can justify is n/(n+1), so a 95% interval from six comps would be a fiction. Model-wide accuracy — MdAPE, MAPE, PPE2, PPE5 — is measured on a held-out test set across thousands of properties and is reported separately in the model documentation; it is not this property’s error bar and is deliberately not printed here.
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Progress | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comp Tier Quality | 23 / 25 | Threshold T11 | |
| Back-Test Error | 18 / 25 | 7.2% avg error | |
| Recency | 21 / 25 | Avg 70 days | |
| Adjustment Magnitude | 16 / 25 | Avg ±9.5% adj | |
| Tier Bonus | 0 / 15 | T11 quality bonus | |
| TOTAL | 78 / 115 | → Medium Confidence |
Comp Tier Quality — How closely the selected comps match the subject (same subdivision, similar size and age).
Back-Test Error — How accurately ALEX's adjustments reproduced known sale prices on held-out test data; lower is better.
Recency — How recently the comps sold; older sales carry more market-shift uncertainty.
Adjustment Magnitude — How large the total adjustments are relative to sale price; larger adjustments reduce certainty.
Tier Bonus — Extra weight applied when top-tier (T1) comps are available and selected.
Back-Test Error — How accurately ALEX's adjustments reproduced known sale prices on held-out test data; lower is better.
Recency — How recently the comps sold; older sales carry more market-shift uncertainty.
Adjustment Magnitude — How large the total adjustments are relative to sale price; larger adjustments reduce certainty.
Tier Bonus — Extra weight applied when top-tier (T1) comps are available and selected.
Report Metadata
| Threshold | T11 |
| Comps Selected | 6 |
| Comp Pool Size | 21 |
| Subdivision | Lakeside Ph 2 |
| Rate Table Version | v1.0-March2026 |
| Source | Bridge API / ACTRIS |
| Approved By | ALEX Intelligence Valuation Engine |
| Total Flags | RED: 0, AMBER: 2, BLUE: 3 |
| FEMA Check | {'in_flood_zone': False, 'zone': None, 'success': False} |
| Tax Data Source | cad:WCAD |
Metric Definitions
Estimated Market Value — The ALEX valuation conclusion: a weighted average of the lot size and age adjusted indicated values across all comps. The Best Comp is counted twice.
Best Comp Selection — Determined automatically by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions: lot size differential, age differential, living SF differential, and net $/SF proximity to the target property’s list price per SF. The comp with the lowest composite T-score is designated Best Comp.
Average — The plain arithmetic average of all comp-indicated values, with no weighting applied.
Range — The spread from the lowest to the highest indicated value across all comps.
Forecast Standard Deviation — How widely the comp-indicated values are spread around the estimate, expressed as a dollar amount and as a percentage of the estimated market value.
Confidence Interval — The value range within which the true market value is statistically expected to fall, given the variability and number of comps in this analysis.
Net Sale Price — The true economic transfer price: ClosePrice − seller-paid buyer closing costs − seller-paid repair credits. Both fields default to zero if not reported.
Adjusted Net Sale Price — The comp’s net sale price corrected for lot size and age differences versus the target property.
Indicated Value — The comp’s per-foot rate × the target property’s living area. Each comp produces its own Indicated Value; the weighted average of all Indicated Values is the Estimated Market Value.
Best Comp Selection — Determined automatically by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions: lot size differential, age differential, living SF differential, and net $/SF proximity to the target property’s list price per SF. The comp with the lowest composite T-score is designated Best Comp.
Average — The plain arithmetic average of all comp-indicated values, with no weighting applied.
Range — The spread from the lowest to the highest indicated value across all comps.
Forecast Standard Deviation — How widely the comp-indicated values are spread around the estimate, expressed as a dollar amount and as a percentage of the estimated market value.
Confidence Interval — The value range within which the true market value is statistically expected to fall, given the variability and number of comps in this analysis.
Net Sale Price — The true economic transfer price: ClosePrice − seller-paid buyer closing costs − seller-paid repair credits. Both fields default to zero if not reported.
Adjusted Net Sale Price — The comp’s net sale price corrected for lot size and age differences versus the target property.
Indicated Value — The comp’s per-foot rate × the target property’s living area. Each comp produces its own Indicated Value; the weighted average of all Indicated Values is the Estimated Market Value.
Limitations & Methodology Disclosures
| 1. | Not a formal appraisal — This analysis does not constitute a licensed appraisal, nor professional real estate, legal, or financial advice. It is a decision-support tool for ALEX Partners and their clients only. |
| 2. | Adjustment scope — Adjustments are applied across lot size, age, living area, condition, view, location, amenities, market timing, garage, and other factors. Adjustment methodology follows Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, 15th Ed. (2020) and Fannie Mae Selling Guide §B4-1.3-09. |
| 3. | Age adjustment rate — The depreciation rate applied is consistent with economic age/life models documented in the Appraisal Institute framework and empirically supported by Sirmans, Macpherson & Zietz, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2005). |
| 4. | Land value rate — Land $/SF is derived from county tax records (market land value ÷ lot SF via Bridge API parcel data). Texas-specific land valuation methodology follows Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas A&M University (TRERC). |
| 5. | Statistical measures — Forecast Standard Deviation (FSD), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Confidence Intervals follow Rigollet, MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (2016); IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013). |
| 6. | Best comp selection — Automatically selected by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions. Comparable selection criteria per IAAO Standard on Mass Appraisal of Real Property (2017). |
| 7. | Data source — MLS data via Bridge API/ACTRIS. Subject to MLS reporting errors and omissions. Net sale price deducts seller-paid buyer closing costs and repair credits (ACTRIS fields). |
This report is generated by ALEX Intelligence for licensed real estate professionals and their clients.
For ALEX & Client Use Only — Privileged & Confidential.