ALEX Comprehensive Valuation — 1301 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown, TX 78633

Property Summary

This report evaluates 1301 Lakeside Ranch RD, Georgetown, TX 78633, a 4-bed / 3-bath, 2,588 SF home built in 2018, situated on a 10,019 SF lot in Lakeside Ph 1. Currently listed at $559,900 with 514 days on market. ALEX analyzed 21 closed sales and selected 6 comps at threshold T15.

DOM

514

List Price

$559,900

ALEX Value

$484,329

Value Range

$389,321 – $517,279

Comps

6

Confidence

Low

ALEX Valuation

Low

$470,000

2.89% below Recommended

✓ Recommended

$484,000

ALEX optimized price ∙ Balanced days-on-market ∙ Data-supported

High

$504,000

4.13% above Recommended

Statistical Confidence Indicators

Forecast Std. Deviation (FSD)

10.8%

How spread out the comp estimates are. Lower means more agreement.

Back-test Error

12.0%

How accurate ALEX was when tested on each comp. Lower is better.

80% Confidence Interval

$417,281 – $551,378

ALEX is 80% sure the true value falls in this range.

Property-Specific Adjustments

Conditions of the property's access that the comparable-sales analysis does not capture, because they are facts about this parcel rather than differences between it and a comparable.

ROAD_SURFACE_UNKNOWN — Street surface could not be established from the MLS fields, the remarks or the photographs. The unpaved adjustment is NOT applied. Confirm on site or from the survey; if unpaved it is -$5,000.

ROAD_STATUS_UNKNOWN — Whether the road is public or private could not be established. The private-road adjustment is NOT applied. If private with no maintenance agreement it is -$4,500.

Market Direction

Where the wider market is moving, independent of this property. The comparable sales establish the level; these establish the direction. Local series are shaded.

FRED MACRO CONTEXT
Series	Latest	Year over year	Five year
Austin-Round Rock MSA house price index ATNHPIUS12420Q · quarterly · as of 2026-04-01	506.31	▲ 0.34%	▲ 15.25%
Austin MSA unemployment AUST448URN · monthly · as of 2026-07-01	4.00%	▲ 14.29%	—
Case-Shiller US national home price index CSUSHPINSA · monthly · as of 2026-06-01	336.66	▲ 1.53%	—
US median sales price MSPUS · quarterly · as of 2026-04-01	$410,700	▼ 1.30%	▲ 11.66%
30-year fixed mortgage MORTGAGE30US · weekly · as of 2026-09-10	6.76%	▲ 6.46%	—
15-year fixed mortgage MORTGAGE15US · weekly · as of 2026-09-10	6.09%	▲ 10.73%	—
Housing starts (SAAR, thousands) HOUST · monthly · as of 2026-07-01	1,239k	▼ 13.48%	—
Building permits (SAAR, thousands) PERMIT · monthly · as of 2026-07-01	1,433k	▲ 2.36%	—
Existing home sales (SAAR) EXHOSLUSM495S · monthly · as of 2026-08-01	3.98M	▼ 1.24%	—
US unemployment UNRATE · monthly · as of 2026-08-01	4.10%	▼ 4.65%	—

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED), public series, fetched live. Each row carries its own observation date because the series publish at different frequencies — the Austin MSA index is quarterly.

Valuation Benchmarks

$ Value Comparison

$ Per SF Comparison

Source	Value	$/SF	vs ALEX
ALEX	$484,329	$187/SF	—
List	$559,900	$216/SF	+15.6%
Tax	$483,510	$187/SF	-0.2%
HouseCanary	$555,161	$215/SF	+14.6%
Zillow	$493,200	$191/SF	+1.8%

HouseCanary $555,161

Low: $502,834High: $607,488 ▎ ALEX: $484,329

FSD	9.0%
Confidence	91%
Range	$502,834 – $607,488

Zillow Zestimate $493,200

Low: $468,540High: $517,860 ▎ ALEX: $484,329

FSD	5.0%
Confidence	90%
Range	$468,540 – $517,860

What this means: Alex AVM is trained on 379,565 Austin-area closed sales (last training cutoff April 2026). On 18,750 hold-out homes the model never saw, it was correct within 5% on 89.1% of homes and within 10% on 97.6%. The 68% confidence band shown above was empirically calibrated to land at 69.2% on the most recent forward-holdout cycle (n=4,144 closed sales, 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28) — within the pre-registered ±2 percentage-point accuracy target.

Methodology: Alex AVM (model V11, BQML boosted tree, 905 trees, 241 features). Point-prediction calibration metrics — MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), Within-5%, Within-10% — reported per MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (Rigollet, 2016) and IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013). Per-property confidence interval via split-conformal Mondrian calibration on V11 residuals (Vovk-Shafer-Romano, 2005); paired-rolling regime (V12 Lever #1 v3, promoted to production 2026-04-30): 6-month calibration window × 2-month forward validation × 1-month inter-window gap (settlement-latency buffer, disjointness enforced by ASSERT). Mondrian partitioning by ws3 cluster × predicted-price decile, n-floor 160 per cell with ALL|ALL fallback. Monthly auto-recalibration via BQ scheduled query (transfer config 69ee9417, fires 1st of month 09:00 UTC) absorbs sampling-noise draws across cycles. Pre-registered α_cal=0.26 calibration-window drift buffer carried verbatim from v1. Cycle-1 OVERALL coverage 69.16% on n=4,144 (delta +1.16pp from nominal 68%, within ±2pp band, binomial 95% half-width ±1.42pp). Final promotion contingent on 3-cycle continuity (Lock §3 row 3); cycles 2 (May 1) and 3 (Jun 1) pending.

Disclosed conditional-coverage caveats: Per-segment cycle-1 (2026-04-30) coverage on the val window 2026-01-01 → 2026-02-28: austin_core 70.13% on n=154; ranches 74.16% on n=89 (rural properties have heavy-tailed residuals; CIs are conservatively wide); lake_travis 78.57% on n=42; sun_city 64.52% on n=31; unclustered_fallback 68.95% on n=3,816. Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage by theorem (Vovk-Shafer-Romano 2005); per-segment conditional coverage is subject to finite-sample sampling noise and is re-measured every cycle. Cycle-2 and cycle-3 numbers will refresh this caveat block.

New construction note: HouseCanary and Zillow rely on historical transaction records and tax-assessment data, so their estimates can lag by months on newly-built homes lacking a recorded sale history; Alex AVM also incorporates live MLS listing features for the subject property.

Reproducibility: calibration script V12_LEVER1_CALIBRATE_QUANTILES.sh; validation script V12_LEVER1_VALIDATE_COVERAGE.sh; monthly scheduled query transfer-config 69ee9417 (us-central1). Hover the MAPE row above for this listing's individualized FSD value.

ALEX AI — 0 features · 0 trees · MAPE 0%

ALEX AI Valuation unavailable for this subject.

HouseCanary

HouseCanary is an institutional-grade AVM platform used by banks, hedge funds, and iBuyers. It applies machine learning across 40+ years of transaction data at the census block level. HouseCanary reports CL* and FSD*, emphasizing statistical precision for institutional underwriting and portfolio analysis. Best used as the institutional precision benchmark.

Zillow Zestimate

Zillow is the most widely recognized consumer real estate platform in the United States. Its Zestimate® is what buyers and sellers most commonly reference when forming initial price expectations. Zillow publishes a Confidence Level (CL*) and FSD* with each estimate. Best used as a consumer perception benchmark.

TAX DATA

The 2026 total market value is $483,510, compared to $516,007 in 2025, a decrease of 6.3% (−$32,497). Improvement value moved −$19,997 and land value −$12,500.

MARKET VALUE COMPARISON — 2026 vs 2025
	2026	2025	$ Change 2025→2026	% Change
Improvement Value	$365,010	$385,007	−$19,997	▼ 5.2%
Land Value	$118,500	$131,000	−$12,500	▼ 9.5%
Total Market Value	$483,510	$516,007	−$32,497	▼ 6.3%

MARKET VALUE BREAKDOWN

Source: cad:WCAD. Williamson and Travis parcels use the certified CAD market value; other counties use Bridge API public records (parcels + assessments). Total = Improvement + Land. Both columns are drawn from a single certified roll year each. Annual property tax depends on the buyer's exemption profile (homestead, over-65, disabled veteran, agricultural, etc.) and is not displayed here.

Comparable Sales Summary

Selected Comparable Properties

Cascade target met at 6 comparables. Use Change to override any property, then press Selection Finalized to regenerate with your final set.

1109 Rock Dock RD$498,500 · 2,636 SF
2117 Rock Dock RD$488,000 · 2,449 SF
3109 Lake Spring CIR$557,600 · 2,803 SF
4104 Red Granite RD$520,000 · 2,704 SF
5133 Red Granite RD$513,500 · 2,565 SF
62036 Limestone Lake DR$576,600 · 2,954 SF

Sales Analyzed

21

Comps Selected

6

Median Net Sale

$520,000

Median SF

2,704 SF

Median $/SF

$198.93

DOM

71

Address	Close Date	SF	YB	Bd/Ba	Net Sale	$/SF	DOM
109 Rock Dock RD	2026-08-28	2,636 SF	2019	4/3	$498,500	$189.11	15
117 Rock Dock RD	2026-07-24	2,449 SF	2020	4/2	$488,000	$199.27	50
109 Lake Spring CIR	2026-08-17	2,803 SF	2016	4/4	$557,600	$198.93	26
104 Red Granite RD	2026-07-01	2,704 SF	2020	4/3	$520,000	$192.31	73
133 Red Granite RD	2026-02-23	2,565 SF	2021	3/4	$513,500	$200.19	201
2036 Limestone Lake DR	2026-03-20	2,954 SF	2016	3/3	$576,600	$195.19	176

Comp Detail Pages

Comp 1: 109 Rock Dock RD 15 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,636 SF
Year Built	2019
Bed / Bath	4 / 3
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	9,148 SF
View	['Neighborhood']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-08-28
Original List	$499,000
Last List	$499,000
Close Price	$499,000
Sale-to-List	100.0%
Concessions	—
Repairs	$500
Net Sale Price	$498,500
Net $/SF	$189.11
Adj Net $/SF	$183.13

Net Sale Price

$498,500

$189.11/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-15,773

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$482,727

$183.13/SF

Public Remarks

This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 3 FULL bathroom home is located in one of the area’s most sought-after neighborhoods, offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and location. The spacious open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a large kitchen with a generous center island overlooking the dining and living areas. Need extra flexibility? Working from home is a breeze with the dedicated office/study, providing a quiet space for productivity or hobbies. Located just minutes from Lake Georgetown, you’ll enjoy easy access to outdoor recreation including, boating, camping, hiking, and fishing. The neighborhood amenities include a playground and dog park, creating a welcoming community for all ages. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a spacious, versatile home in an exceptional location! [Some listing remarks were omitted: they described who the property would suit rather than the property itself. Full remarks are available in the MLS.]

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	+$9,495
STRUCTURAL
Year Built / Age — by AI	$-4,985
INTERIOR
Kitchen — by AI	$-12,462
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500
Study / Office — by AI	$-7,478
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-15,773
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$482,727

Adjustment Chart

Comp 2: 117 Rock Dock RD 50 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,449 SF
Year Built	2020
Bed / Bath	4 / 2
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	10,454 SF
View	['None']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-07-24
Original List	$525,000
Last List	$499,000
Close Price	$499,000
Sale-to-List	100.0%
Concessions	$10,000
Repairs	$1,000
Net Sale Price	$488,000
Net $/SF	$199.27
Adj Net $/SF	$203.22

Net Sale Price

$488,000

$199.27/SF

ALEX Adjustment

+$9,684

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$497,684

$203.22/SF

Public Remarks

NEW PRICE AND THIS IS A DEAL!! This home sits in one of those neighborhoods that folks just love--quiet, friendly, & close to everything that makes Georgetown special. Just a few blocks away,inside the neighborhood, there's a special entry to the Lake Georgetown hike & bike trails...access to the 26.5 miles Goodwater Loop Trail.. Perfect for morning walks, weekend bike rides & catching sunset views. The home sits on a quiet half-circle street w/very little traffic, something the Seller loves for the peace & safety it brings. Inside, you'll find fresh paint, updated lighting wood grain tile in the common areas, & fresh decorative tile flooring in all 3 bedrooms plus 2 flex rooms that can easily serve as a 4th bedroom, office, nursery, or playroom. The kitchen opens to the dining & family room & features granite counters, stainless steel appliances & a walk-in pantry with frosted glass insert. A triple sliding door in the family room leads to the extended covered patio, 3 custom-built decks, custom built trellis panels & a removable country style 10 ft. stock tank pool with a high quality pump. Perfect for porch sitting & enjoying the outdoors. Primary suite offers a bay window, a custom shiplap accent wall , 2 large walk-in closets, dual vanities, a garden tub, & separate shower. Secondary bedrooms share a full bath, & both have /charming touches like wainscoating & one bedroom has a built-in reading nook to add character. The garage has 2 cedar plank walls to give the vibe of home gym, workshop, or even a "man cave" Also enjoy a short walk to 2 nearby pocket parks and the local elementary school. You can also walk to the local grocery store, other shops, & restaurants. We hope you enjoy the charm that only Georgetown can exude. You are so close to the downtown district with local parades, amazing Christmas lighting in that season, incredible restaurants and shops & so much more!

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-4,067
STRUCTURAL
Full Bathrooms — by AI	+$12,200
Workshop — by AI	$-10,000
Year Built / Age — by AI	$-9,760
INTERIOR
Fireplace — by AI	$-15,000
Flooring — by AI	+$12,200
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500
Study / Office — by AI	$-7,320
ALEX Total Adjustments	+$9,684
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$497,684

Adjustment Chart

Comp 3: 109 Lake Spring CIR 26 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,803 SF
Year Built	2016
Bed / Bath	4 / 4
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	11,326 SF
View	['None']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-08-17
Original List	$559,000
Last List	$559,000
Close Price	$559,000
Sale-to-List	100.0%
Concessions	—
Repairs	$1,400
Net Sale Price	$557,600
Net $/SF	$198.93
Adj Net $/SF	$184.54

Net Sale Price

$557,600

$198.93/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-40,321

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$517,279

$184.54/SF

Public Remarks

A former Perry model home built to be a showplace, now a place to live. The home has been perfectly kept and reimagined by the sellers. It is the best in the neighborhood, built out of brick and quartz and light. The entry hall is wide and flows to the elegant living area. The home is on one floor with eight-foot doors, high ceilings and wood look tile throughout the home. No carpet except two closets. The kitchen, living room and dining area are one open area with a glass-enclosed wine/spirits display feature, vaulted ceiling, quartz island, upgraded cabinetry/ backsplash, under cabinet lighting, electric shades and whole home sound system exemplifying the upgraded status of the home. Gutters and filtration systems add to the upgrades. The living room extends outdoors through a triple sliding glass wall onto a covered patio. The covered patio has an audio zone and a cedar privacy screen. The privacy fencing is framed by Leyland Cypress perfectly positioned on an oversized lot. The Upgrade List is wonderful. Those items installed by the owners with available receipts approx $30,895. Jo Ann Ford Elementary, the highest ranked school in GISD, is a short walk. Lakeside Park and Lake Georgetown entry points all feature trails. The Lake is a Corp of Engineer's lake managed by the park service. With low 1.83 taxes, and in better than new condition, this is the best Georgetown buy under $560K.

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-12,868
STRUCTURAL
Full Bathrooms — by AI	$-11,152
Half Bathrooms — by AI	$-5,000
Year Built / Age — by AI	+$11,152
INTERIOR
Home Automation — by AI	$-8,000
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500
Soaking Tub — by AI	+$15,000
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-40,321
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$517,279

Adjustment Chart

Comp 4: 104 Red Granite RD 73 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,704 SF
Year Built	2020
Bed / Bath	4 / 3
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	8,276 SF
View	['Neighborhood', 'Trees/Woods']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-07-01
Original List	$575,000
Last List	$525,000
Close Price	$520,000
Sale-to-List	99.0%
Concessions	—
Repairs	—
Net Sale Price	$520,000
Net $/SF	$192.31
Adj Net $/SF	$143.98

Net Sale Price

$520,000

$192.31/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-130,679

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$389,321

$143.98/SF

Public Remarks

Spacious and versatile one-story home offering 3 bedrooms with the potential for 4 or even 5, plus 3 full baths and a bright, open floorplan filled with natural light. The thoughtfully designed MIL layout provides privacy and flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The heart of the home flows seamlessly for everyday living and entertaining, while the extended back patio—complete with a built-in seating wall—creates the perfect outdoor gathering space. Located just off Williams Drive, this property offers easy access to the area’s growing mix of dining, shopping, and conveniences. Additional highlights include a 3-car tandem garage and unique wellness features—a cold plunge and sauna, each set on their own concrete pad (available for purchase outside of closing). Tesla charger is included!

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	+$21,895
View — by AI	$-50,000
STRUCTURAL
EV Charging — by AI	$-3,000
Garage Spaces — by AI	$-41,600
Year Built / Age — by AI	$-10,400
INTERIOR
Fireplace — by AI	$-15,000
Kitchen — by AI	$-13,000
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500
Study / Office — by AI	$-7,800
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-130,679
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$389,321

Adjustment Chart

Comp 5: 133 Red Granite RD 201 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,565 SF
Year Built	2021
Bed / Bath	3 / 4
Story	Single
Pool	No
Lot Size	9,583 SF
View	['None']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-02-23
Original List	$549,000
Last List	$525,000
Close Price	$515,000
Sale-to-List	98.1%
Concessions	—
Repairs	$1,500
Net Sale Price	$513,500
Net $/SF	$200.19
Adj Net $/SF	$189.45

Net Sale Price

$513,500

$200.19/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-27,569

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$485,931

$189.45/SF

Public Remarks

This home features 3 bedrooms with 3.5 baths, flex room that can be used as a media/game room, exercise room or large office. This beautiful home provides an open floorplan, bridging the living, dining and kitchen areas making entertaining ideal. Windows enhance the beauty of this home creating a bright and airy feel throughout. The living area features a glass sliding doors overlooking a great screened in covered patio and backyard with pergola and hot tub. In the kitchen, the large multi-purpose island, is inviting to any avid cook or someone just learning! This master retreat includes dual vanities, separate tub and shower and a walk-in closet with pass-through laundry setup giving ample space for storage and organizing. Located in a growing area with easy access to shopping a dining, this community also offers a low tax rate at 1.81. Come take a look at this Beautiful home. [Some listing remarks were omitted: they described who the property would suit rather than the property itself. Full remarks are available in the MLS.]

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	+$4,668
STRUCTURAL
Full Bathrooms — by AI	$-10,270
Half Bathrooms — by AI	$-5,000
Year Built / Age — by AI	$-15,405
OUTDOOR
Pergola — by AI	$-7,500
INTERIOR
Kitchen — by AI	$-12,838
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500
Soaking Tub — by AI	+$15,000
Study / Office — by AI	$-7,702
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-27,569
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$485,931

Adjustment Chart

Comp 6: 2036 Limestone Lake DR 176 days ago

Property Specs

Living Area	2,954 SF
Year Built	2016
Bed / Bath	3 / 3
Story	Single
Pool	Yes
Lot Size	13,068 SF
View	['Trees/Woods']
Condition	['Resale']

Sale Data

Close Date	2026-03-20
Original List	$684,900
Last List	$598,000
Close Price	$598,000
Sale-to-List	100.0%
Concessions	$18,000
Repairs	$3,400
Net Sale Price	$576,600
Net $/SF	$195.19
Adj Net $/SF	$140.97

Net Sale Price

$576,600

$195.19/SF

ALEX Adjustment

$-160,172

Agent Adjustment

$0

Indicated Value

$416,428

$140.97/SF

Public Remarks

Nestled in the highly sought-after Lakeside neighborhood of Georgetown, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, a bonus office room, two and a half baths, and two inviting living rooms (one upstairs loft with a half bath), the layout is perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. A dedicated office space makes remote work or study a breeze, while the high ceilings with stunning wooden beams add character and warmth to the home. The extended primary closet provides ample storage, while the backyard is an entertainer’s dream with a sparkling pool and covered patio, ideal for enjoying sunny days or hosting gatherings. With no neighbors directly in front of the property, enjoy added privacy and peaceful views. Plus, the quick access to Lake Georgetown allows you to easily embrace the outdoor lifestyle, from boating to fishing and beyond. This home combines tranquility and convenience, making it the perfect retreat in the heart of Georgetown. Ask about our special incentives to buy down the interest rate!*

Adjustments

SITE
Lot Size — by AI	$-25,000
View — by AI	$-50,000
STRUCTURAL
Half Bathrooms — by AI	$-5,000
Year Built / Age — by AI	+$11,532
OUTDOOR
Pool — by AI	$-20,181
INTERIOR
Fireplace — by AI	$-15,000
Flooring — by AI	$-8,649
Kitchen — by AI	$-8,649
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500
Soaking Tub — by AI	+$15,000
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-160,172
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0
Agent Total	$0
Indicated Value	$416,428

Adjustment Chart

Consolidated Indicated Value Summary

Agent adjustments entered above are reflected in the Indicated Value column below.

Adjustment	109 Rock Dock RD	117 Rock Dock RD	109 Lake Spring CIR	104 Red Granite RD	133 Red Granite RD	2036 Limestone Lake DR

Sale Price	$499,000	$499,000	$559,000	$520,000	$515,000	$598,000
Buyer Closing Costs	—	$-10,000	—	—	—	$-18,000
Repairs	$-500	$-1,000	$-1,400	—	$-1,500	$-3,400
Net Sale Price	$498,500	$488,000	$557,600	$520,000	$513,500	$576,600
Net $/SF	$189.11	$199.27	$198.93	$192.31	$200.19	$195.19
SITE
Lot Size — by AI	+$9,495	$-4,067	$-12,868	+$21,895	+$4,668	$-25,000
STRUCTURAL
Year Built / Age — by AI	$-4,985	$-9,760	+$11,152	$-10,400	$-15,405	+$11,532
INTERIOR
Kitchen — by AI	$-12,462	—	—	$-13,000	$-12,838	$-8,649
Mud Room — by AI	+$7,500	+$7,500	+$7,500	+$7,500	+$7,500	+$7,500
Study / Office — by AI	$-7,478	$-7,320	—	$-7,800	$-7,702	—
STRUCTURAL
Full Bathrooms — by AI	—	+$12,200	$-11,152	—	$-10,270	—
Workshop — by AI	—	$-10,000	—	—	—	—
INTERIOR
Fireplace — by AI	—	$-15,000	—	$-15,000	—	$-15,000
Flooring — by AI	—	+$12,200	—	—	—	$-8,649
STRUCTURAL
Half Bathrooms — by AI	—	—	$-5,000	—	$-5,000	$-5,000
INTERIOR
Home Automation — by AI	—	—	$-8,000	—	—	—
Soaking Tub — by AI	—	—	+$15,000	—	+$15,000	+$15,000
SITE
View — by AI	—	—	—	$-50,000	—	$-50,000
STRUCTURAL
EV Charging — by AI	—	—	—	$-3,000	—	—
Garage Spaces — by AI	—	—	—	$-41,600	—	—
OUTDOOR
Pergola — by AI	—	—	—	—	$-7,500	—
Pool — by AI	—	—	—	—	—	$-20,181
Agent Adjustments
Condition / Updates — by Agent	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
View Quality / Orientation — by Agent	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Location / Street / Cul-de-sac — by Agent	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Amenities / Features — by Agent	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Market Time / Date of Sale — by Agent	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Other (describe below) — by Agent	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Agent Total	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
ALEX Total Adjustments	$-15,773	+$9,684	$-40,321	$-130,679	$-27,569	$-160,172
Indicated Value	$482,727	$497,684	$517,279	$389,321	$485,931	$416,428

Green = upward adjustment (comp inferior to subject).
Red = downward adjustment (comp superior to subject).
Only rows with |adj| > $500 in at least one comp are shown.
Adjustment rates sourced from Appraisal Institute, TRERC, Fannie Mae, and ALEX current rate table.

Comp Selection Cascade

Tier	Geography	Lookback	Year Built	SF Range	Sales Found
T0	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	0
T1	Subdivision	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	1
T2	Subdivision	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	3
T3	Subdivision	90 days	±3 yrs	±15%	4
T4	Subdivision	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	1
T5	Subdivision	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	3
T6	Subdivision	90 days	±4 yrs	±20%	4
T7	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	1
T8	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	3
T9	Subdivision	180 days	±3 yrs	±15%	4
T10	Subdivision	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	1
T11	Subdivision	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	3
T12	Subdivision	180 days	±4 yrs	±20%	4
T13	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	2
T14	Subdivision	270 days	±3 yrs	±15%	4
T15 ✓ Selected	Subdivision	201 days (exact)	±3 yrs	±15%	6

Methodology & Audit Trail

Comp Pool Exclusion Funnel

Raw Fetched	21
− Missing Data	−0
− Poor Condition	−0
Pool After Pre-filter	21
Comps Selected (T15)	6

Raw Fetched — All closed sales in the same subdivision and city within the lookback window.
Missing Data — Sales removed because living area or close price was not recorded (required for adjustment math).
Poor Condition — Sales rated Fair or Poor condition; not valid comps for a standard-condition subject.
Pool After Pre-filter — Eligible sales remaining after removing incomplete and distressed records.
Comps Selected — Final comps chosen by the cascade algorithm at the selected tier.

Confidence Score Breakdown

Factor	Score	Detail
Comp Tier Quality	12 / 25	Threshold T15
Back-Test Error	19 / 25	6.4% avg error
Recency	19 / 25	Avg 90 days
Adjustment Magnitude	13 / 25	Avg ±11.8% adj
Tier Bonus	0 / 15	T15 quality bonus
TOTAL	63 / 115	→ Low Confidence

Comp Tier Quality — How closely the selected comps match the subject (same subdivision, similar size and age).
Back-Test Error — How accurately ALEX's adjustments reproduced known sale prices on held-out test data; lower is better.
Recency — How recently the comps sold; older sales carry more market-shift uncertainty.
Adjustment Magnitude — How large the total adjustments are relative to sale price; larger adjustments reduce certainty.
Tier Bonus — Extra weight applied when top-tier (T1) comps are available and selected.

Report Metadata

Threshold	T15
Comps Selected	6
Comp Pool Size	21
Subdivision	Lakeside Ph 1
Rate Table Version	v1.0-March2026
Source	Bridge API / ACTRIS
Approved By	ALEX Intelligence Valuation Engine
Total Flags	RED: 0, AMBER: 3, BLUE: 5
FEMA Check	{'in_flood_zone': False, 'zone': None, 'success': False}
Tax Data Source	cad:WCAD

Metric Definitions

Estimated Market Value — The ALEX valuation conclusion: a weighted average of the lot size and age adjusted indicated values across all comps. The Best Comp is counted twice.
Best Comp Selection — Determined automatically by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions: lot size differential, age differential, living SF differential, and net $/SF proximity to the target property’s list price per SF. The comp with the lowest composite T-score is designated Best Comp.
Average — The plain arithmetic average of all comp-indicated values, with no weighting applied.
Range — The spread from the lowest to the highest indicated value across all comps.
Forecast Standard Deviation — How widely the comp-indicated values are spread around the estimate, expressed as a dollar amount and as a percentage of the estimated market value.
Confidence Interval — The value range within which the true market value is statistically expected to fall, given the variability and number of comps in this analysis.
Net Sale Price — The true economic transfer price: ClosePrice − seller-paid buyer closing costs − seller-paid repair credits. Both fields default to zero if not reported.
Adjusted Net Sale Price — The comp’s net sale price corrected for lot size and age differences versus the target property.
Indicated Value — The comp’s per-foot rate × the target property’s living area. Each comp produces its own Indicated Value; the weighted average of all Indicated Values is the Estimated Market Value.

Limitations & Methodology Disclosures

1.	Not a formal appraisal — This analysis does not constitute a licensed appraisal, nor professional real estate, legal, or financial advice. It is a decision-support tool for ALEX Partners and their clients only.
2.	Adjustment scope — Adjustments are applied across lot size, age, living area, condition, view, location, amenities, market timing, garage, and other factors. Adjustment methodology follows Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, 15th Ed. (2020) and Fannie Mae Selling Guide §B4-1.3-09.
3.	Age adjustment rate — The depreciation rate applied is consistent with economic age/life models documented in the Appraisal Institute framework and empirically supported by Sirmans, Macpherson & Zietz, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2005).
4.	Land value rate — Land $/SF is derived from county tax records (market land value ÷ lot SF via Bridge API parcel data). Texas-specific land valuation methodology follows Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas A&M University (TRERC).
5.	Statistical measures — Forecast Standard Deviation (FSD), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Confidence Intervals follow Rigollet, MIT 18.650 Statistics for Applications (2016); IAAO Standard on Ratio Studies (2013).
6.	Best comp selection — Automatically selected by T-score similarity ranking across four dimensions. Comparable selection criteria per IAAO Standard on Mass Appraisal of Real Property (2017).
7.	Data source — MLS data via Bridge API/ACTRIS. Subject to MLS reporting errors and omissions. Net sale price deducts seller-paid buyer closing costs and repair credits (ACTRIS fields).

This report is generated by ALEX Intelligence for licensed real estate professionals and their clients. For ALEX & Client Use Only — Privileged & Confidential.